Patriot on the horizon: how many air defense systems will receive Ukraine and when
At a meeting with journalists on July 24, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine has funds for three Patriot systems from the United States, two more is a Germany, one - Norway. In general, he said, the country needs 10 systems. Zelensky emphasized working with partners, including the Netherlands, on missiles and licenses for the production of air defense. "We are still struggling over the production license. It is important that in Germany there is a platform, production.
So far, we are not here, but in Europeans with whom we have a good relationship," Zelensky said. Prior to that, US President Donald Trump during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on July 14 promised Ukraine for "billions of dollars" at the expense of NATO member states. Among them are 17 Patriot systems. The condition for providing new weapons was that European countries will compensate for the US weapons expenditures for Ukraine.
Prior to that, on July 2, it became known that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz agreed with US Defense Minister Pete Hegsest to buy Ukraine two additional Patriot installations. According to military expert Roman Svitan, Germany plans to transfer five Patriot batteries to Ukraine, each includes three starting installations. These were previously ordered by Switzerland batteries, which will be transmitted to Ukraine extraordinary.
Such a system is designed because the turn of Patriot has been standing for years from many countries of the world. This means that in the coming years, Ukraine will receive 15 starting installations, five locators, five control systems and additional two spare launchers. However, the supply of these systems is likely to begin next year, as Germany receives its Patriot since the spring of 2026. Accordingly, Ukraine can count on these systems only after this period.
Svitan also noted that it is possible to accelerate the process thanks to Germany, which can transfer two Patriot batteries to Ukraine by the end of this year. This will be a temporary solution that will be financed by the future replenishment of US reserves. Thus, by the end of 2025, Ukraine can receive two Patriot systems, and during 2026 - five more. The expert stressed that these are only previous plans, and the terms may depend on political decisions and logistics.
Military expert Pavel Narozhny told Focus that the air defense battery includes radar, control, diesel generator and starting installations, and the complete complex provides the efficiency of the system. The most important element of the Patriot battery is a radar that costs about $ 60-70 million.
Without it, the system cannot function, because the radar reveals the target, monitors its trajectory and, depending on the type of rocket, provides illumination of whole during start or throughout the flight. The second key component is a control point that compares the nationwide with a marine container filled with servers. "This computer system performs complex calculations by defining the trajectory of targets and coordinating the entire battery.
The power is provided by a diesel generator with a capacity of 200 kW. Finally, the battery includes starting installations - usually eight, although in some configurations there may be four," the expert added. The Narozhny emphasized that the transfer of only launchers without other components has limited value. Effective work requires a complete complex, because individual elements, such as starting installations, are not able to perform air defense tasks independently.
He also noted that some Patriot systems that are already in Ukraine have been damaged due to Russian attacks, including drones and missiles. To protect against debris, Ukrainian manufacturers have even developed special steel slabs to strengthen these systems. According to the expert, Germany is ready to transfer 5 batteries from its 9. Patriot deliveries for Ukraine have become possible due to the coordinated efforts of the Allies.
The Narozhny explained that the United States had changed the order of deliveries, giving priority to Germany in front of Switzerland. Thus, Germany removes five batteries from its warehouses or combat duty, transmits them to Ukraine, and instead receives new systems from the manufacturer. This allows Ukraine to get the necessary weapons faster, but at the same time creates a gap in the defense of Germany, as the country loses more than half of its Patriot.
The advantage of transferring old Patrioot to Ukraine lies in potentially rapid delivery terms. As the Patriot systems are mounted on the basis of trucks, their transportation to Ukraine is a logistically simple task. According to the nation, it can take from several weeks to several months, depending on customs procedures and other organizational issues. Battery trucks can simply leave Germany and come to Ukraine, which greatly simplifies the process. However, there are significant drawbacks.
The batteries transmitted by Germany are relatively old, because they came to the German army many years ago. Technique, including trucks on which these systems are mounted, can be 20-30 years old. Spare parts for such machines are no longer produced, which complicates their repair in case of breakdowns.
Although the Patriot systems themselves have been upgraded, their technical condition may not be perfect compared to the new batteries that Germany will receive from the manufacturer to replace the transmitted Ukraine. Asked if five Patriot batteries have enough to protect the Ukrainian sky, Roman Svitan said categorically: this is not enough.
"To effectively protect key regional cents, where a large number of population resides, as well as important infrastructure sites, Ukraine requires at least 50 Patriot batteries. Five batteries that are planned to be put, capable of protecting only a few large cities, such as Dnipro or Odessa, but will not provide a full cover. " Pavel Narozhny believes that five Patriot batteries will greatly exacerbate Ukraine's air defense, allowing them to resist ballistic and winged missiles effectively.
"With these five batteries, we will be able to completely close all issues regarding ballistic and winged missiles over the sky of Ukraine," the expert said. According to Svitan, the optimal solution to contain Russian ballistic attacks is to create its own ballistic program. Ukraine needs missiles capable of reaching Moscow to be able to respond to enemy strikes.
The expert proposes the concept of "mirror blows": every attack in Ukraine should have a response in the form of ten missiles aimed at strategic goals in Russia, in particular the Kremlin. According to him, only this approach can force Russia to stop ballistic attacks and invite a truce. "Ukraine has announced the creation of its own ballistic program for several years, but there are no real results yet. In addition to announcements, nothing is visible.
It remains a serious challenge for the Ukrainian defense industry, because without its own offensive weapons the country is forced to rely exclusively on defense systems, such as Patriot," Recall that Ukrainian engineers from the Odin project have developed an Antishaheed complex to fight with hostile drones. However, experts have discussions about the feasibility of mass use of this system. Focus also wrote that a massive attack on Kiev cost the Russian Federation of $ 120 million.