The world order changes. Where is the place of Ukraine in it?

Mykola Sungurovsky Director of the Razumkov Center Military Programs Seeking a place in the updated world and counting on the preservation of subjectivity, Ukraine has to answer a number of issues in the midst of the war in the Ukrainian expert environment And goals.

This happens during and against the background of changes in the world order caused by the emergence of a new balance of forces and efforts of the centers of influence to get a reliable environment (alliances, coalitions of like-minded countries, etc. ), through which powerful messages will be broadcast. Hence the question of the new architecture of economic and security unions, alliances, communities, situational coalitions of regional and global scale.

A number of experts predict the weakening of existing global and regional economic and security systems, preferring a small, more compact sub -regional formation. At the same time, the question remains unanswered: whether new formations will have sufficient capabilities and resources in order to determine and maintain a new world order. Also, whether existing structures are able to learn crisis lessons and adapt properly to new conditions.

Despite the presence of a wide range of options, the most likely (and desirable) scenario is the dramatic reform of existing structures with more weight within their framework of the subregional alliances. When looking for a place in the renovated world and counting on the preservation of subjectivity, Ukraine has to answer a number of questions for itself: 1. Vision of the future and ways of realizing strategic goals. 2.

Realistic assessment of their own capabilities and necessary resources (financial, economic, technological, political, personnel). 3. An unbiased analysis of possible sources and conditions for obtaining the necessary resources. 4. Determination of current, medium- and long-term priorities of domestic and foreign policy, strategic and situational partners. In particular, if we consider the European integration course of Ukraine, the main attractors for it are the EU and NATO.

Ukraine's membership in both of these structures is possible only after the victorious end of the war with a significant weakening of Russia - otherwise the Russian factor will be a significant obstacle to the membership for a long time. Moreover, the acquisition of safety on the part of NATO should be for Ukraine the main foreign policy priority not only from the point of view of its own safety, but also the point of view of reducing the risk of investment for reconstruction and development.

In addition, the victory of Ukraine in the war will greatly soften NATO's requirements for Ukraine's membership. The post-war state of infrastructure and economy of Ukraine, the promotion in the harmonization of EU legislation (therefore Ukrainian economic entities are predicted in an unfavorable competitive environment), as well as its ambitions to develop certain sectors of the economy will be the subject of long and complex negotiations with EU member states.

Because the latter of course will choose for themselves competitive advantages. The participation of Ukraine in subregional structures (TRIMORA, Visegrad Four, Lublin Triangle, etc. ), in the economic, scientific, technological, humanitarian programs of the EU and support from their participating countries will be a significant positive factor.

But the main prerequisite for the implementation of the integration course of the success of the Western Assistance Plan in the reconstruction of Ukraine is the real attachment of Ukraine itself to make all the necessary efforts.

The indicators of this will be the presence of strong political will, their own strategy and development programs, consolidation around them, the positive results of the first steps and the irreversibility of reforms, first of all, the judicial and law enforcement systems.