Why Putin Spring Caller: As the Russian Federation is about to use 150 thousand stitches

How will the Putin regime dispose of the 150,000 young Russians who should be called in the spring? Answering this question, analyst Igor Tyshkevich emphasizes a number of features and denotes some threats . . . Putin signed a decree on the beginning of the spring conscription. The total intends to recruit about 150 thousand people. This is more than during the autumn conscription of 2023 (130 thousand), but it is possible to compare with the spring of 2023, when 147 thousand people gathered.

This would be a point if it were not for several features. It makes sense to understand in view of the long Russo-Ukrainian war and the Kremlin's attempts to provide himself with a "victory on the front". At first glance, the scale of spring call can be compared with 2023 (called 147 thousand), but more in the spring of 2022 (134. 5).

Increasing demand in the term lanes is associated with two stages of increasing the number of Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - Putin issued appropriate decrees in 2022 and 2023. Both times, the army increased by about 130 thousand, and by military components, not civilian staff. But one thing is to issue decrees, the other is to find conscripts. To understand the situation, I advise you to look at the age-sex pyramid of the population of the Russian Federation.

In the conscript age, the least numerous generations of Russians are now. That is, the next conscript campaign may simply not be enough (and those who want to serve) citizens. In addition, the conscript campaign takes place twice a year. That is why in the Russian Federation increase the conscript age, seeking to "capture" and those who hoped to "stay" until the cherished 28 years. One increase in conscript age is not limited. The Kremlin declared "the accession of new territories".

That is, the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions considers their own. Therefore, the call will take place there (just as in the so -called "LNR" and "DNR"). Young citizens of Ukraine will "offer" to serve Russia. And they will pursue to refusing to do it - because they have time to declare "Russians". Not at all. In the Kremlin, of course, they say that the durables will not be sent to the front.

As in the rear districts of occupied parts of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. But no one spoke about the border regions (Bryansk, Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov), ​​as well as the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. Therefore, even durables can be part of the real fighting. And if the Kremlin decides to try to "open another front", for example, in the direction of Kharkiv, then they will be guaranteed.

And finally, it is worth mentioning the stories of interrogations of prisoners in Ukraine. There is a fairly large group with an identical life story - immediately after the course of a young fighter, friends are offered a contract. They agree (thinking that the contractor be better than stomach) and in a week or two find themselves at the front. Most often - in the assault units.

In addition, in fact, the stitches (which can not really get to the front), it is worth considering the following logic: therefore, it can be assumed that by all these methods, Russia is trying to obtain an additional human resource in the next two months to create a new group capable of threatening Ukraine.

This is generally not new and predicted: against the background of problems with partners in the West, intra -Ukrainian political processes, mobilization -free mobilization (including an indecently long discussion Try to achieve the necessary advantage and offer a way to negotiate, for example, a truce from a "strong position". But there is one very dangerous trend for Ukraine. It is an attempt to repeat the Case of Donbass in the regions occupied in 2022.

It is about making Ukrainians fight against Ukraine. And here for the Kremlin is not so important military result - important sacrifices. Simply put, the more mobilized (called) will die, the better. A kind of attempt to "disconnect with blood". And here for Ukraine as a state, for Ukrainian special services, structures engaged in information operations, there is a field for work.

On the one hand, give algorithms how to avoid calling/mobilization (unfortunately, most will not be able to leave), on the other, to think how to guarantee the possibility of moving to their side of those who have already managed to go into the Russian army. And, finally, do not forget that some of such "mobilized" can help in intelligence. And another attempt to activate on the front will be. And it can start in May.