Choice of Finland. Join NATO and cross the road of
Last Sunday in Finland, a presidential election took place. The rating of the current President Sauli Ninityo (in 2018, he was re -elected in the first round with a result of more than 60% of the vote, setting a national record) is a striking 90%, but he refused to change the Constitution and did not run for the third time.
Not surprisingly, the two most popular candidates who came to the second round of the election-a deputy from the Green Party and former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto and a representative of the centering people, former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, in every way imitated the current president. And as observers say, any of the presidential candidates for Finns is one question: "Will you be able to protect us from Russia?" The history of Ukraine and Finland are quite similar.
Both of them were won by the Russian Empire, winning these territories in the weaker Western conquerors. Finland also had some special status in the empire (Ukraine has lost it over time). And here the differences began. After the 1917 revolution, Finland managed to get independence in Ukraine. The Suoma country seemed to be ahead of Ukraine for several decades. Two decades later, the restored empire tried to turn back "their" lost land.
In 1939-1940, a short war took place, which went down in history as the Winter War. In recent years, Ukraine has set Marshal Gustav Mannerheim in the example of Marshal, who then led the resistance of the USSR, but in fact he recognized the loss of about 10% of the territory of his country, together with the second largest city in the country - Vyborg. However, after two years, he tried to play with Nazi Germany. Finns chose not those allies and could pay dearly.
And here Marshal Mannerheim really showed miracles of flexibility, pleasing his guilt and still avoiding the occupation of his territory. So, in fact, the ally of the Axis Finland countries, as a result of World War II, was in a much better position than the main first victims of aggression-Czechoslovakia and Poland, which were under a rigid Soviet occupation. In fact, most Eastern European countries have become Moscow provinces, while Finland has preserved "broad autonomy".
Suomi did not join the Warsaw Treaty. Although the Finns were part of the sphere of influence of Moscow, they retained self -government and their political system. In practice, their situation allowed them to maintain good relations with both hostile in the Cold War by the parties, that is, to trade with both. To some extent, it is even a better disposition than in some NATO countries.
Such a development led to the fact that in 1995, after the collapse of the Bolshevik bloc, Finland joined the European Union, it had one of the highest standards of life in the world. It makes sense to give up neutrality when the end of history seemed not. The Russian Federation remained the largest trade partner of Finland until 2013. Finland imported energy from Russia (60-65% of imports), but instead sold the Russian Federation of finished products with high value added.
The classical scheme is virtually favorable to both democratic Finland, it allowed to provide a high level of remuneration, which caused high standards of life of the population; Authoritarian Russia is to enrich the natural resources of the power. In the Ukrainian political realities of the millennium bonds often tried to identify the concept of political neutrality and pacifism. In fact, these are diametrically different concepts, and Suomi understood it perfectly.
Just like Switzerland and Sweden, Finland paid a certain price for its off -a -party. She has invested considerable resources in her military-industrial complex, weapons of her army and kept in tone (or more precisely on the military registration of her population). For Finland, the concept of neutrality meant not so much that no one would attack her, but that in the case of external aggression for her, no one would stand up. Therefore, it will be necessary to defend your independence again.
Therefore, Finland also joined NATO with its high military standards. Since 1992, Finns have begun military cooperation with the Alliance, which has been significantly deepened in recent years. Already in the winter of 2022, 64 newest US military aircraft were purchased. Finland has gone on defense spending more than 2% of its GDP (NATO standard), which is not fulfilled by much of the Alliance members. Despite the possible stereotypes, Finnish society is quite militarized.
At least 21 thousand reservists take place every year, 900,000 people are total reserves, with a regular army of 280 thousand. This is all in the population of Finland 5. 5 million. If these proportions are adopted to Ukraine, as of December 2021, we should have almost 2 million regular army and almost 7. 5 million reservists ready to take weapons at any time.
With the usurpation of power in the Russian Federation in the hands of Putin, the situation on the border with the Russian Federation has become increasingly tense in recent decades. Borders with Finland make up less than 11% of Russia's land border. It is difficult to isolate such a large country as the Russian Federation, but it is possible to squeeze specific arteries. The path to the Kulsky Peninsula is one of these arteries and control over Finland.
The strategic location of Finland gives a real potential to control the access of Russian troops to the North Elct. According to Finnish Professor Timo Vikhavainenen, Finland and reservoirs, which its control is applied to, have strategic importance for Russia for centuries - and so it will not release them so much. An important factor in relations between the Russian Federation and Finland is an ethnic component. Eastern Karelia.
After the annexation of the territory of Finland, a large part of the population (about 25%) was unveiled from there. This act of genocide is remembered on both sides of the border. In addition, the Finns are ethnically close to the inhabitants of the Russian region of Karelia. Many of its inhabitants have relatives in Finland. It is necessary to talk about the difference in the standard of living, which is observed on both sides of the border.
Of course, the Russian authorities cruelly crush any spark of local separatism at the root, but the situation can change at any time and no one knows how far the idea of "historical unity of the Finnish people" can come. " In the end, Finland itself gained its independence after the Russian Empire lost, the fronts of which were almost as far from Finland as it is now from Karelia. Finland's introduction to NATO has become as advantageous as possible for both parties.
NATO intensified a real powerful ally, who strengthened the Alliance's military potential. The strategic location of Finland also intensified NATO's geopolitical situation. The loss of this was Russia, which received a powerful response to its ultimatum since December 2021. The Russian Federation demanded the departure of the Alliance to the West, but instead received a multiple increase in its land border with the Alliance even in the most uncomfortable place.
The Kremlin tries to destabilize the situation in every possible way. In November, at the Finno-Russian border, the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border of the sample of 2021 was repeated. Russia "attacked" Finland illegal migrants. As a result, Helsinki decided to close the border with an inadequate eastern neighbor. Even earlier, there was a strange situation with damage to the gas pipeline, which connects Finland with Estonia.
It is obvious that hybrid aggression against Finland will continue in 2024, but what methods will the Kremlin choose remains a mystery. For Ukraine, NATO expansion is an extremely positive factor. This puts Russian troops on the twine (which is especially important, the ROB and air defense means can not afford to remain completely "blind" at such an important point), and demonstrates that ultimatum policies in the Euro -Atlantic world are unacceptable and unpromising.