Draw the "mopeds". Will the event be stopped by Iranian weapons to the Russian Federation
One Dron Kamikadze Shahd-136 destroyed a dwelling house in the center of the capital, where five civilians were killed. Although up to 50-70% of Iranian drones in the Ukrainian sky, the enemy has an advantage in the amount-launches "mopeds" with flocks. So, on the night of October 27, Drones-Kamikadze attacked the Kiev region six times. Some of them failed to neutralize - in one of the communities of the region reported several "arrivals" on infrastructure.
Probably, the military partnership between Russia and Iran will not be limited to the supply of ShahED-136. The Washington Post has already reported that Iran can transfer to Russia the ballistic missiles of the Earth-Earth-Earth 110 and Zolfaghar 300 km and 700 km, respectively. The official Tehran insists that he did not transfer Dron-Kamikadze to Russia.
In particular, the media spread the words of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran Nasser Kanana, who claims that Iran has always opposed the continuation of the war and is ready to negotiate with Ukraine to refute these accusations. At the same time in the Russian Federation on the drones-Kamikadze Shahd-136 are labeled "Geran-2" to avoid associations with Iranian origin. However, they do not believe in the West.
According to The New York Times, Iranian drones have become an important weapon for Russia, which uses them for wide blows on energy infrastructure and other civilian purposes. The publication adds that Iran has sent instructors to the occupied territory of Ukraine to help the Russians to overcome the problems that arise with drone purchased in Tehran.
The aforementioned publication emphasizes that the increase in the closeness between Iran and Russia occurred after Moscow invaded Ukraine and the Kremlin tried to compensate for its international isolation. Therefore, it is reported that Britain and the European Union impose new sanctions against Iran on the manufacturer of the SHahd-136 drone, as well as three Iranian generals.
At the same time, Reuters writes that major Western powers consider the use of drones by a violation of the UN Security Council resolution 2231 concerning the restrictions of Iran's nuclear program. Let us clarify, in this document adopted in 2015, the schedule of international inspections of the implementation of the nuclear program, and there are grounds for removing the sanctions of the UN from Iran.
According to Reuters, this resolution 2231 contains restrictions on rockets and related technologies by October 2023 and may cover exports and purchase of advanced military systems such as drones. Therefore, experts on sanctions from 27 EU Member States have agreed to be included in the list of some Iranian generals and a manufacturer of Shahd drones. In the United States also supported the strengthening of sanctions against Iran.
"Since Iran continues to lie and deny the provision of weapons of Russia for use in Ukraine, we strive to work with allies and partners to prevent the transfer of dangerous weapons of Russia. We will be without hesitation to apply our sanctions and other appropriate tools for all those involved in these deliveries" , - the US Department's website reports.
"Washington warned about future deliveries in advance, referring to intelligence, in particular - photodocasis," generalizes Agia Zagrebelsk, the founder of the league of antitrast. " And France, the United States and the United Kingdom initiated the hearing at the UN Security Council, where experts from the organization made a report on drones. " However, Russia is trying to block the beginning of the UN investigation into Iran's violation of the resolution 2231.
According to Reuters, the Russian Ambassador to the UN Vasyl Neenz has accused the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany of violation of the UN Charter. According to him, the rules of the organization allegedly contradict the attempts to influence these countries on the UN Secretary General Anthony Guterresh through written requests to start the investigation into the use of Iranian drones by Russia.
And the US Deputy Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood accused Moscow that she was spending the time of the Security Council, distracting from her unacceptable actions. Until recently, Iran was the leader in the number of sanctions until it was ahead of Russia. For the first time, sanctions against Iran were imposed in 1979 after the Islamic Revolution in response to the capture of the American Embassy. After that, the sanctions were intensified and weakened.
According to Agia Zagrebelsk, the sanctions concerned almost all areas except humanitarian, and their particularly acute regime operated when in 2018 US President Donald Trump left the nuclear agreement. Trump explained this step by the fact that the agreement worked in favor of only one country and should not be concluded. Then they were banned: however, the sanctions did not cool the militant moods of Iran.
"The sanction regime limited the ability of Iran's defense program and slowed its development, but did not destroy. Iran bought the necessary components in the black market, brought up weapons and, using Beijing support, continued production of weapons," Agia Zagrebelsk comments. The Iranian side does not recognize the supply of Russia's weapons, the interlocutor of Focus explains that this is contrary to the aforementioned 2015 resolution.
And, as Zagrebelsk stresses, Tehran violates the UN resolution for the first time - Iran supplied Hussites in Yemen, Hamas and other Iranian proxy (terrorist grouping), and later used for attacks on Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq. In this situation, the question arises how a country against which rigid financial sanctions are applied to and which is included in the FATF black list (financial measures group to combat money laundering), can supply weapons for years and receive payment for it.
Agia Zagrebelskaya explains this phenomenon by the fact that Iran has worked many different alternative forms of payment - from the use of currencies of countries that do not comply with the pressure of sanctions to cryptocurrencies. In this case, Iranian transport or logistics capabilities of buyers are used to transport goods. "First, there is a system that is well known to us since the 1990s-barter or offsets.
Second, except for the US dollar, there are other currencies, and in addition to SWIFT there are several dozen accounting systems and payments that cannot be controlled in For example, the Chinese system that actively operates in Southeast Asia. And thirdly, cryptocurrency can also be used without control by the countries that use sanctions, "Anatoly Amelin, co-founder and director of economic programs Ukrainian Institute continues The Future.
By the way, in March 2022, the Russian media reported that Iran and Russia were working to combine financial messages bypassing SWIFT. A number of Russian banks were disconnected from this international payment system, and Iran was completely deprived of SWIFT in 2012 because of attempts by nuclear technologies for military purposes. "Countries use many mechanisms to avoid sanctions," sums up political scientist Victor Taran.
- For example, to bypass the oil embarl of Russia, which the West introduces from December 2022, is already preparing a gray tanker fleet. And find variants of gray schemes for two totalitarian states where there Budget control is not at all difficult. Cash and cryptocurrencies can be used here. " The question of how Iran is under sanctions remains open, access to technologies and details for the acquisition that are needed for the production of at least the same "mopeds".
However, as Amelin explains, electronics and other forbidden goods by third countries, bypassing the US control, can be imported to Iran as gray imports or smuggling. Usually, the cost of such gray imports is 15-20% higher than that of legal supply. The experts interviewed by focus differently evaluate the effectiveness of sanctions as a means of counteracting the supply of Iranian weapons of Russia.
"Iran has learned to effectively circumvent sanctions through third world countries, so it is necessary to connect secondary sanctions. They should concern both suppliers and partners and third countries that help to circumvent Iran and Russia's sanctions," Anatoly Amelin said. However, the problem, according to some experts, has a deep geopolitical implication. "Unfortunately, no sanctions will stop the supply of Iranian weapons.
That is, this process can be slowed down and complicated, but not stopped in the medium term. After all, while China supports Iran and Russia, weapons will continue," Agia Zagrebelskaya said. According to the focus interlocutor, it may be that the victory of Iranian protesters, since the people of Iran do not support such military cooperation with Russia, which is exclusively the position of the Iranian regime.
We will remind, mass protests covered Iran from the end of September 2022 because of the death of 22-year-old Mahi Amini, which was beaten by police for "wrong wearing of Hijab". On the other hand, experts surveyed do not expect a quick response from the collective event. "Now it is necessary to prove that the supply of Russia of Iranian weapons really happened and what violations were allowed by Iran.
After all, the rule of law operates in the West and even in dealing with tyrants, terrorists and dictators there are trying to adhere to the legal process and rely on the evidence. The news for Ukraine is that the event's response will not be lightning, "Victor Taran continues. But the interlocutor of the focus assures that in the more distant perspective the principle of irreversibility and the process already launched.
And although, according to Taran, there are many more issues, discussions and discussions ahead, sooner or later the case will end with a rigid punishment of the involvement - at least a large [nuclear] agreement on which Iran expects will be paused. However, Ukraine is unlikely to count on the fastest rescue from mopeds by increasing the sanction pressure on Iran.