Repeat or cyclical assault: The expert said that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (video)
According to the SBU's export employee, the Armed Forces will be able to keep the Russian occupation army at a distance from the goals of their offensive, but they have no forces for promotion. At the same time, local authorities, for example, in Kharkiv and region do not observe the signs of activation of any training of the invaders for the offensive. "I think that the offensive on Kharkiv is gossip, but in the Kharkiv region there is indeed a Russian group and a tank army.
Theoretically, the occupiers retain combat capability and can try to break through the direction of Kupyansk - Lyman. But the Ukrainian military command builds several lines of fortifications," Stupak told. In addition, as the expert explains, the presence of a group of troops does not mean that the offensive is being prepared in the area. "There should be a set of factors, such as the deployment of hospitals and field kitchens, the transportation of a large number of ammunition, etc.
It is a serious mathematics of war and serious calculations," the SBU expectorate explained. Stupak recalls how closer to the autumn of 2022 the Ukrainian information space was filled with rumors that they gave rise to significant panic. It is about the alleged advance of Russian troops from Belarus. Today, the expert notes, more than 5 thousand mines have already been buried there.
According to the expert, there is considerable potential for promotion in the Armed Forces in the Kherson region, but it will also depend on many factors. "So far, our advantage is in the air, thanks to the drones. After the loss of five sides, literally 48 hours in 2023, Russian aviation is now very minimal," Stupak notes.
At the same time, when the enemy sees that heavy armored vehicles are already on the extended bridgehead, he will, according to the expert, to transfer to the Left Bank of Kherson region not such shabby forces that are now fighting under Bakhmut or Avdiivka. However, according to Stupak, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can now only keep the Russians at a distance, reflect hostile attacks, "meat" storms. "We can restrain the Russians, but not step. We are forced to save ammunition everywhere.
The artillery works minimally as possible," he added. However, the expert explained that the assault of the enemy is not a completely offensive. According to Stupak, Russians can storm the positions of the Armed Forces and then roll into former borders.
"This is now stated by British intelligence, which captures that, despite a considerable number of attacks, storms and the number of occupiers, which is constantly exceeding the number of the Armed Forces, the front continues to remain static," says the SBU's exporter. Asked when the peak point of pressure from Russian invaders may occur, Stupak stressed that it is likely that in the middle or by the end of March, which he connects with the presidential election in Russia.
And then, in his opinion, everything will depend on the volume of assistance to Ukraine, on election results, in particular in the United States, etc. We will remind, on January 7 former CIA head David Petreus stated that if you do not stop the Russian President in Ukraine now and give him win, then Vladimir Putin will go further. Its next purpose can be Moldova, Baltia or any other country. Accordingly, the countries of the event should help Kiev not to lose.