They are afraid of rockets on the Kremlin: whether there are "red lines" in Putin and whether there will be a response for blows to the Russian Federation - FT
Although the United States takes a cautious position on the intersection of the so -called "red lines" of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin is afraid that they may face Kremlin strikes. Financial Times writes about it.
The meeting of Vladimir Zelensky with the US President in the White House this week will be a key point in his desire to persuade Biden administration to provide Ukraine with modern military equipment, including missiles of a long range of action to reflect Russian attacks. Ukraine insists on the need to provide missiles that will help strike Russian air tiles from where bombs and planning missiles are launched in Ukrainian cities.
Despite the growing support of this idea among Western countries and pressure from the United Kingdom, Baiden administration is still afraid to give permission to this step. Especially after the reports of Western intelligence services that Iran supplies ballistic missiles to Russia, which can lead to escalation of conflict. Last week, Vladimir Putin warned that blows to the Russian territory with the use of Western missiles would be regarded as a "direct involvement" of NATO in conflict.
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Director of National Security, even threatened to "turn Kiev into molten gray mass". However, Western leaders are already accustomed to such statements, believing that Russian "red lines" are increasingly being bluff. While the decision to provide a long -range missile has not yet been taken, Russian officials are convinced that Washington has already approved the supply of British Storm Shadow missiles and French scalp.
These systems depend on American satellites and NATO experts, which causes concern in Moscow. The debate of how to respond to Russia's threats and possible escalation continue in the western capitals. Many experts believe that Putin often denotes "red lines" but does not work. However, Washington fears that Russia can respond with an increase in conflicts in other regions, such as the Middle East, where Moscow is considering supporting Hussites.
Baiden's administration is also not sure that blows in the depths of Russia will bring a significant advantage on the battlefield, given that most Russian aircraft have been moved beyond reach. In addition, the US has a limited number of ATACMS missiles that could be used for blows in Crimea. However, the United States often stated that they would not supply one or another weapon, citing many of the same reasons, and only then, after pressure from Ukrainians and European allies, allowed to do so.
In the end, the United States gave way to Ukraine, F-16 fighters, and ATACMS systems after they were publicly insisting that they would not do it. Putin himself jokingly mentions the rapidly changing "red lines" of Russia, pointing out that they exist, but only he knows where they really are. "Well, regarding these" red lines ", let me leave it with you," he said to the audience in June 2022.
Dmitry Coursing, Professor of the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, believes that Putin is not too concerned about how his decision is perceived by the Western community. Western countries, meanwhile, continue to increase escalation, resorting to the tactics of gradual steps, which analysts call "salami slicing" or "frog cooking.
" Oleksandr Gabuev from the Russo-Euvi Center of Carnegie in Berlin emphasizes that Biden administration is acting carefully, avoiding the risk of direct confrontation with Russia. However, according to him, in Russia "they" fear that if they continue to allow these small steps, then in two years they will see direct rocket strikes on the Kremlin, if they do not find a way to repel. " "Russia is looking for ways to regake the West's decision on escalation," Gabev added.
The Russian Federation, in turn, tries to raise the price for the event for further escalation, using both hostilities and nuclear threats and hybrid instruments - cyberattacks, operations of influence and transmission of weapons to US opponents. According to the Kremlin, the nuclear threat remains the "last insurance" from the defeat in the war, which makes this game more difficult and dangerous.
We will remind, on September 23, the newspaper The Sunday Times, with reference to an unnamed Western diplomat, published probable four main points that are part of Zelensky's Victory Plan. Among other things, there is a continuation of hostilities in the Kursk region and a "specific" weapon for the Armed Forces.