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Critical 3-4 months for Russia: Why huge problems with the budget will not necessarily lead to catastrophe

Many publications have emerged that Russia has huge problems with the budget and flies to the abyss. Economist Denis Dovgopoly states that it is not so simple: there are problems, and very big, but how critical they will be for the economy and social sphere - it is necessary to watch the next 3-4 months. I have not written about the economy in the swamps for a long time, but now a lot of bravura posts have appeared that it is flying into the abyss.

After excessive optimism in 2022, since 2023, I took a more cautious position . . . So the last week we are discussing a sharp increase in the orcostan budget deficit. Unfortunately, this caused a great wave of optimism in Ukrainian circles. Despite the fact that the news is wonderful, I would ask you to follow the position of "restrained optimism. " Why? There are some details here.

Among the economists are several groups that monitor the different parameters of the orcostan economy and direct their actions to influence them. I belong to the second in size and influence of the CPI group (consumer price index - F. ). Why? There are several arguments: so, for me (and not just for me) CPI is a very good figure. But how is it related to the budget deficit? It is more difficult here. Budget deficit is a very important thing, and something needs to be done.

There are several basic ways: the impact on the CPI will be with the lag. That is, to see the effect of the budget deficit on the CPI, you need to wait for which tools will apply the Economic Block of the swamp. And we will see it, because the key indicators are open and it is impossible to hide them: public course, aggregators as well. There are also factors that affect the deficit itself: there are also factors that hit the CPI direction: the price of fuel and crop.

But it should be borne in mind: a sharp increase in deficiency can be methodological - prepayments, technical shifts, fluctuations, as has already happened. So, my conclusion is that economic processes in swamps cause me careful optimism. They will certainly have consequences. But how critical they will be for the economy, the social sphere, and especially for the CPI - it is necessary to watch the next 3-4 months. I apologize that I have knocked down your wave of positive.