Ukrainians create a story - how will the Kremlin answer? World media analyze the value of "stunning" offensive of the Armed Forces
*** The counter -offensive of Ukraine in the north "in five days changed everything", states in his review Dan Sabbach, editor of the Security and Defense Department of the British The Guardian. He notes that, while until recently, the Kharkiv Front was largely ignored by the Front, it was here that the Armed Forces managed to break a depth of 70 km and, according to ISW, released more territory than Russian troops have seized in all their operations since April.
"Kyiv has shown that it could dynamically use military circumstances in its favor, opening up the prospect of further significant success before winter," Sabbach emphasizes. He notes that the Armed Forces jerk in the Kharkiv region "is probably the second stage of double counterattack" - first in Kherson and then in the Kharkiv direction - while Russian military intelligence "catastrophically dropped" the increase in the Armed Forces in the north.
Video Day Ukraine has succeeded partially through the use of tanks and infantry, but also due to the weakening of the enemy by the strikes of long -range artillery, writes The Guardian. He notes that the Armed Forces were skillfully used both intelligence to determine the weak place of the Russians and geography - in particular the river [Oskil as a barrier for supply and departure of the Russian army - approx. ed].
"But first of all, [the offensive of Ukraine] showed the unprecedented use of all -military forces with optimal capacity," the author writes. He also notes the failure of the Russian army calculations that it will be able to pave the way west by "continuous use of heavy artillery" (from 15,000 to 20,000 shells per day). Now it became apparent that Russia spent months of war on exhaustion, reaching only limited conquests (seizure of Severodonetsk), and later "and completely nothing.
" The counter -offensive of the Armed Forces also discovered how quickly the forces of the Russian Federation are rapidly stretched along the front in Ukraine: Subbakh estimates their total number of 100 thousand military, with the quality of the forces of the invaders "gradually deteriorating".
At the same time, it remains unclear how long Ukraine will be able to maintain this offensive impulse, because too fast and distant progress ahead can be "risk -related" for the Armed Forces, emphasizes The Guardian's profile observer. It is unclear whether the front is stabilizing in the Oskil River, while Ukraine has been able to attack the Russian Federation in the northern part of the Luhansk region, as well as to advance in Kherson region - "where Russia is likely to take away troops.
" It is critical now that these events will have, The Guardian writes. If you do not take into account the hypothetical "extraordinary events on the battlefield", Ukraine is unlikely to finally defeat Russia before winter. "However, Kyiv has demonstrated what is already important and may have support for the event next year, preventing possible external criticism due to rising energy prices this winter," - emphasizes the publication of the significant moment of success of the Armed Forces.
Although the Kremlin is unlikely to give in to the requirements of Ukraine - including the complete withdrawal of troops from its territory, the payment of reparations and the convening of the tribunal for war crimes - before Vladimir Putin and the leadership of the Russian army are "serious issues". "Their answer to these questions can determine if they have at least some chance to win this war," Dan Sabbach sums up.
The Washington Post states the "stunning defeat of Russian troops" in Kharkiv region. Although the publication reminds that the Russian Federation still occupies a large territory of Ukraine - from Mariupol and Kherson to annexed Crimea - as well as able to expose the territories of rocket strokes, military experts emphasize the importance of the success of the Armed Forces, first of all because .
"This is a landmark event," says Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research. - It does not mean that Russia will be displaced from Ukraine in the near future. However, they [the army of the Russian Federation], they still do not draw conclusions [of their own mistakes], they still do not even basic things wrong. " According to Lee, "the overall situation is now in favor of Ukraine, especially in the medium term", while "the case will only worsen for Russia.
" "Russia has no good reason to believe that it will be able to achieve more in Ukraine than it has already reached," Rob Lee emphasizes.
The Ukrainian forces have already managed to cut the ways of supplying the enemy, expose the disorder and chaos in the ranks of the army of the Russian Federation, to motivate Ukrainians, to force representatives of the occupying "power" to escape, as well as to angry supporters of the Kremlin, reminiscent of WP, quoting the words of Igor Girkin about "great defeat.
" “The Ukrainian troops in the northeast were gleaming through tens of cities and villages in a few days, sometimes moving for 30-40 miles [48–64 km] in one day, which Russia has not achieved since the first days of the invasion. […] In Washington, a high -ranking official of the US Department of Defense called [the Armed Forces] "extremely encouraging", - the newspaper writes.
With reference to WP assessments, WP also notes that "local victories can lead to a wider strategic shift in the war if Ukrainians continue to develop their sudden advantage. " The newspaper reminds that the Armed Forces have been moving southeast along the M03 highway in the last days, which “would eventually allow them to unite Kharkiv again, the second largest city in the city of Ukraine, with Donbass, which borders [with Kharkiv region], connecting two key theaters of war.
" After the departure of Russian troops from Razuma, Russia's ability to fulfill its task of capturing all Donbass - which was the only publicly announced goal of Putin's "special military operation" - now under the big question, says CONFLICT INTELLIGENCENCE TEAM analyst Cyril Mikhailov. According to him, Izium was an important node of supply and management for the entire Northern Front of Russia, as well as the only large Russian bridgehead on the right bank of the Siversky Donets River.
Therefore, the loss of Izium will destroy the entire northern front and its efforts to capture the Donbass. "In the end, this really increases Ukraine's chances of maintaining Donetsk [Donetsk region]," Mikhailov said. CNN writes about the "impressive week of success of Ukraine and failures of Russia", ascertaining "a stunning change in the field of fighting in eastern Ukraine".
The American TV channel notes that for the army of the Russian Federation this week was "worst of the whole campaign", while the offensive of the Armed Forces was "brilliantly conceived and implemented. " He also succeeded thanks to the inadequate actions of the Russian army, a large part of the units of which in the area "were poorly organized and equipped".
In the end, their failures and disorderly retreat "significantly complicated" the attempt to capture the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which the Russian Federation sought. Now the collapse of Russian defense has provoked "mutual accusations among influential Russian military bloggers and characters of the Russian state media", says the American TV channel.
And the center of attention was one main question: how does Moscow react to all this? "It is impossible to predict whether the Kremlin will now double the effort to" complete the special operation ", whether it will look for settlement by negotiation," CNN emphasizes. According to his journalists, the first option seems to be a "unbearable task" for the Kremlin, taking into account the events of last week, and the second would be "humiliating".
The third option-"possibly most likely"-is that Russia will continue its attempts to advance-"replanting" an inch by an inch, practically not capturing additional territories. "However, she now faces an enemy in whose sails blowing a passing wind, and more-fresh supplies of Western military assistance, which are being prepared for the winter months," CNN states, reminding of Ramstin-5 and that the successes of the Armed Forces have "cheered up support of allies.
" Russian propagandists are trying to present events this week as a planned operation, but there are virtually no signs that Russian troops are "purposefully regrouping", the TV channel says. Instead, it seems that the army of the Russian Federation "lacks high quality units".
Kateryna Stepanenko from the American Institute of War Study notes that according to the results of the "outstanding success" of the Ukrainian counter-offensive of Russia will have to review how it uses the newly created 3rd Army Corps. In her opinion, the Russians "can still try to use these units to stop the Ukrainian counter -offensive in the Kharkiv region, although to throw poorly trained and unprepared parts in such operations would be a very risky flow.
" Stepanenko believes that the Russian Federation will still send these units directly to the front - taking into account the shortage of new personnel and the first reports that some "volunteer" battalions are already fighting in advanced positions in the Kherson region.
Although the army of the Russian Federation can still possess "considerable power" in terms of missile and artillery blows, but its terrestrial operations - despite numerous changes in the highest command - "seem poorly organized" and the commanders in the field have minimal autonomy. "The last week exposed the problems of motivation and leadership [in the army of the invaders]," CNN emphasizes.
The New York Times writes that the defeat of Russian troops in Ukraine "puts a new political challenge to Vladimir Putin": he undermines the image of "competence and power", which has worked on the creation of the dictator for two decades. "Power is the only source of Putin's legitimacy," said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin's former Sweather Sidemil, and now a political consultant who lives in Israel. "And in a situation where he does not have forces, his legitimacy will start to fall to zero.
" It is unclear how far is ready to go Russia-with its cyber, chemical and nuclear arsenal-to stop the offensive impulse of Ukraine, "even when the scale of defeat on the battlefield has become cleared and more evidence of chaos within the Russian ruling class appeared," NYT writes, " . According to analysts, the fundamental problem is that Putin catches his tendency to mislead his own people.
The obvious failure of Russia "punches the cracks" in the Kremlin's statements that "the Russian army is allegedly invincible that Ukraine is imbued with corruption and cowardice, and Putin is a brilliant geopolitical strategist.
" Russian political scientist Tatiana Stanova notes that the Kremlin's decision to diminish the intensity and scale of war in Ukraine has created parallel worlds: on the one hand, it is the realities of the largest terrestrial war in Europe for many decades, and on the other, the usual Moscow atmosphere. According to her, such a strategy was based on the expectations that Russia would won the war rapidly.
However, now the failure for failure is making the most difficult task to hide the fact that things are not planned. "In principle, the Kremlin has built all its policies that it cannot be defeated," she said. "They were not prepared for what could occur with this second, parallel world. " Meanwhile, leading German media again urge the German government to strengthen Ukraine's support against the background of a successful offensive of the Armed Forces.
“Putin can lose this war and lose it if it continues. The Federal Government [Germany] has to recognize this and to contribute to the policy of supplies of weapons [Ukraine], ”says Daniel Bryosler, a leading political observer and editor of the influential newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, saying that“ now has to change the course.
” In a separate text, following the visit of the German Foreign Minister Annalya Berbbiv to Kiev, he emphasizes that Izium's release became the "greatest defeat of the Russian army" after its departure from the outskirts of Kiev.
Bryssler emphasizes that against this background Berbok had to endure in Kiev "an uncomfortable moment that could be avoided" - when the Foreign Minister of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba repeated Ukraine's request to the government of German , whether it is possible to put tanks […], someone in Ukraine dies because the tank has not yet arrived, ”Kuleba emphasized. The leading German magazine Spiegel appealed to the Scholz government.