Prolonged war. How to stay in the state, business and people

Oleksandr Bondarenko Director and co -founder of the Bureau of Investment Programs The war will be long. And we need to prepare for a rapid economic recession. After all, high inflation is now in the world, which has exceeded 10–12% in leading economies. And this is a record figure in the last 35-40 years. In Ukraine, inflation has already reached 35% in the annual dimension, and by the end of the year, most likely, 40-45%. So what to do with the economy if the war is long -lasting.

Corporate Level: Relocation of Ukrainian Enterprises and Export Video Day now Ukrainian Business is worth looking for opportunities for exporting its products to EU, China, USA. The domestic market is unstable. And exports will allow you to receive a stable currency income. It is also important to think about moving to a safer place, to the western regions of Ukraine, closer to borders with European countries.

The team and I are engaged in creating such locations safe for the operation of enterprises in Ukraine. I am from Kharkiv, and I know how most entrepreneurs are currently working there - they spend all their profit on the Armed Forces, as well as on the reconstruction and restoration of warehouses and various infrastructure objects that were damaged by the shelling of the enemy.

Therefore, the organization of safe locations can save our business capital, which is the filling of the budget with taxes. After all, during the war, at various estimates, 12% of enterprises completely or partially moved to safe regions, 20% of companies are in the process of relaxation. Moreover, 11% of those businesses that have already been displaced from dangerous places moved abroad. Basically these are EU countries: Poland, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Estonia.

The loss of intellectual capital is another risk to business. According to our estimates, in the first 4 months of the war, more than 2 thousand Ukrainian enterprises left for Europe, and with them about 50,000 employees. If in 2023 the number of economically active population of Ukraine decreases by 20-30%, then it will not work to restore GDP to the level of pre -war state. So now you need to think how to save people who are carriers of knowledge, competencies and technologies.

Currently, the state provides free transportation of the enterprise. It is necessary to fill in a special form and submit it on the ProZorro platform. In addition, the government launched a grant program for greenhouse business and processing. Conditions - 30% by 70%. The entrepreneur invests 30% of his own funds. 70% - gives the state in the form of a grant. And for 3 years this grant is returned to the state in the form of ESA paid by employees of the enterprise.

Grant to create small businesses in the amount of 250 thousand UAH is issued. All information is on the portal of E. Robot in the app. National level: the State Budget of Ukraine requires about $ 3 billion and the creation of industrial parks to withstand a long -term war, macro -financial support from international partners is required. That is, effective negotiations with all possible donors, such as the World Bank, IFC, EIB, IMF, governments of EU countries and the USA, are important.

Every month, about $ 3 billion is needed to close the state budget deficit and provide stable social benefits, pensions, heating and military procurement costs. In the form of loans and grants during the whole period of the war, Ukraine received about $ 25 billion on paper, and live money - about $ 13 billion, which is very small. Macro -financial assistance of $ 3 billion will ensure the stability of the Ukrainian economy and will not force the National Bank to switch on the printing machine.

As a result, inflation will not grow, which has now reached 35%in the annual dimension. And by the end of the year it can reach 40-45%, if not stabilized the economy. Creating industrial parks in safer regions of the country and logistics complexes at the border with EU countries will help business. It will become a motivating factor for entrepreneurs to stay in Ukraine, create jobs, pay taxes here.

If the state creates 3–5 such industrial parks in the selected safe regions of Ukraine, such as Lviv, Transcarpathian and Chernivtsi regions, where the risk of missile strikes is minimal, not only Ukrainian businessmen will be investing there, but also western ones. I will remind that this summer the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on industrial parks, which provides important economic incentives: 0% income tax for 10 years from the beginning of the residential park's activity.

And 0% for duties on the import of foreign equipment and the lack of VAT on foreign equipment for a resident of the industrial park. By the way, in the safe territories of industrial parks it is necessary to create military-industrial clusters. After all, Ukraine needs its production weapons. This production cluster can be created in the format of a joint venture with producers of EU countries: Poland, Germany, Scandinavian countries with experience of military production.

Family level: a reasonable savings third level of economic preparation for the long -term war is personal. Ukrainian families should be prepared for the heating season, who can, in terms of investment in alternative ways to provide heat in homes. It is necessary to learn to save on a personal level and to manage personal finances. And keep your money in large system banks.