The capture of colledar will not give Russia the operational advantage for the offensive in Donetsk - isw

Analysts noted that the attacks under the carbon and Pokrovsk are mutually reinforcing and aimed to stretch the Ukrainian forces along the wider front in the Donetsk region. Even if Russian occupation troops seize the coal, it is unlikely to give the Russian Federation some special prompt advantage for further offensive operations in the western part of Donetsk region. This is stated in the report of the American Institute of War Study (ISW) on September 24.

"The potential capture of Comedar by Russia is unlikely to dramatically change the course of offensive operations in the west of Donetsk region. Coloral is not a particularly important logistics node," the report reads. Analysts have explained that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation already control most major roads leading to the coal.

Therefore, the capture of this settlement will not provide the Russian troops with immediate access to the new road, and will not cut Ukrainian troops from the road, which is crucial for their logistics. "The potential capture of the coalwar will also not necessarily provide the Russian troops with a favorable position, from which they will be able to start further offensive operations in other parts of the western part of the Donetsk region," the report reads.

At the same time, ISW experts emphasized that how quickly Russians can capture the entire coal depends on decision -making by the Ukrainian side. In particular, if the Ukrainian command decides that the risk of a carbonist or the cost of its defense is too high, then Ukrainian troops can retreat, which will allow the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to capture the coal relatively quickly and without entering the melee.

However, if Ukrainian troops decide to protect the coal and be able to prevent the Russian attempts to surround it, then the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be difficult to break through the settlement, which Ukrainian troops have been strengthened for over two years. "If the Russians do not take the settlement relatively quickly, the Russian troops on the flanks of coledar can also affect the onset of autumn rains, which will significantly complicate the advancement .

Analysts recalled that Russia tried at least twice to capture the coal in late 2022 and early 2023. Both attempts led to significant losses of Russian personnel and equipment.

According to the ISW preliminary estimation, Russian offensive efforts under the carbon and Pokrovsk are mutually reinforcing and aimed to stretch the Ukrainian forces along the wider front in the Donetsk region, but the hypothetical capture of the Russians of the coal will not necessarily be important enough from the operational point of view to stretch the Ukrainian forces. Further in the area.