As an operation of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region affects possible negotiations: what Kiev and Moscow hopes on
The promotion of Ukrainian troops deep into the territory of the aggressor country, which is accompanied by the gradual expansion of the captured territories, the loss of personnel of the Russian army and the replenishment of the exchange fund, which is constantly emphasized by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, can potentially improve the future negotiation position of Kyiv.
The focus analyzed whether the bridgehead of Ukraine in the Kursk region could become the same turning point that the Kremlin would plant at the negotiating table, but under Kyiv. So far, Putin has not seen Ukraine with the subject of the negotiation process and declared a desire to negotiate with a collective event on Russian conditions. Now Ukraine has "broken" the conditions imposed by the Russian president and intensified its own future negotiation positions.
At least that's what is considered at the Center for Combating Misinformation. Prior to the beginning of the Kursk operation in the West, they did not believe in the ability of Ukraine to recruit the territory and go on negotiations with Moscow from the point of view of force. But it is unlikely that they considered the scenario of the offensive of the army of the state protected from the aggressor in the territory of the occupiers themselves.
In the end, Western leaders, at least in public, admit that they knew nothing about the operation of the Armed Forces and it was a surprise for them. For the last half of the year, Ukraine has increasingly heard the need to start negotiation immediately. On May 17, Zelensky in an interview with the French news agency AFP actually confirmed that Western allies would not mind if Kiev sat at the negotiating table as soon as possible and the war stopped.
Partners do not push Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, the President said, although "in the atmosphere of the world it is. " The American analyst and strategist Redzhan Menon in the Foreign Policy column on June 3 wrote that Ukraine needs to stop the Russian offensive for a successful negotiation position, start their own counter -offensive, returning more. In his opinion, any negotiations with the Russian Federation should start from the point of view of force.
Given the events of the last two weeks in the Kursk region, it can be argued that Ukraine is on the way to this position, but the question is how long it will be able to keep its position, or at the expense of new achievements can lose the battle for Pokrovsk and most importantly - whether or not Considers Putin lost Russian territories sufficient reason to negotiate peace with Ukraine. The statements that are heard from the Kremlin point to the opposite.
On June 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow is ready to negotiate with Ukraine. However, they must be based on the 2022 negotiation process. "We are ready for these negotiations. But only on the conditions we agreed on starting these negotiations in Minsk and then in Istanbul, not on some" fiction, "Putin said. Two months later, on the seventh day of the breakthrough by the armed forces.
Ukraine's border in the Kursk region, the Kremlin head excluded the possibility of peace talks with Kiev. to the peaceful population, by civil infrastructure, or try to create threats to nuclear power facilities? What can you talk about with them? ” - said the Russian president. After these words Putin began to be heard completely identical statements that traditionally voiced the same Russian politicians. The invasion of the territory of the Kursk region, no language can be on.
in the negotiation process. "How long this" pause "he does not know. Of course, the former President of the Russian Federation, and now the deputy chairman of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, has not been left. Russia could get "with a certain coincidence of circumstances". Political observer Tim Shipman noted that President Zelensky suggested that the Kursk operation aimed to ensure future peace talks under Ukraine.
But no one thinks, writes an analyst that "negotiations are possible no earlier than spring and probably no earlier than the fall of 2025. " On August 12, Ukraine officially confirmed that she was conducting an operation in the Kursk region. The Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Sirsky reported to the President that Ukrainian troops control almost a thousand square kilometers. Since then, the defense forces have continued to be moved by the territories of the Kursk.
On August 20, Syrsky stated that the territory of the Armed Forces has increased to 1263 square meters. km. For understanding, this is about the area of Kiev (839 square km) and the Dnieper (409. 7 square meters) combined. In traditional evening appeals, Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasizes that the Armed Forces achieve the set goals as part of an operation in the Kursk region.
On August 18, the Head of State informed that the plans of Ukraine include the creation of a "buffer zone" in the Kursk region. That is, in these territories Russian military presence is removed. "Everything that harms the Russian army, the Russian state, their defenders and their economy. All this helps us to prevent the expansion of the war and to bring the fair ending of this aggression. A fair peace for Ukraine," he said.
It is worth noting that neither in the President's office nor in the General Staff still announced what the purpose of the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region was. Zelensky personally did not comment on the prospect of negotiations with the Russian Federation on the background of surgery in the Kursk region and did not say that captured territories could become a coin during negotiations with Moscow.
On the ninth day of the Kursk offensive adviser to the head of the Presidential Office Mikhail Podolyak in an interview with the Russian edition "Medusa" stated that "no one will negotiate with Putin on Putin. " "Ukraine believes that the negotiation process with Russia is possible only if it understands that the price of war for it. This means that the tools of coercion should work. One of these instruments is the military defeat of Russia.
What is happening in Kursk region, - Another military defeat of the Russian Federation. Other factors, Podolyak, mean giving allies to Kiev even more weapons. On August 21, Jermak's adviser said that Kursk operation was killing the concept of "Great Peacekeepers" and returns to a fair negotiation process, which should be based on respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries.
The offensive on the Kursk region disrupted the secret negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, which was to take place this month in the do not, wrote The Washington Post. According to journalists, in Qatar, they had to conclude a historical agreement that would stop blowing on energy objects on both sides. According to the interlocutor, familiar with the negotiations "After Kursk Russians retreated. " Lavrov had to publicly refute the preparation of such negotiations.
He called the rumors of the "hidden contacts" between Kiev and Moscow through Qatar and Turkey. Instead, Anatoliy Burmich, a MP from the MP "Recovery of Ukraine", confirmed attempts to hold such negotiations. He referred to his own sources. At the official level, Ukraine did not comment on these statements. Ukrainian high -ranking officials in Kiev had mixed expectations for whether these negotiations could be successful.
There were those who assessed the chances of success of 20 percent, while others provided for worse prospects. But Ukraine has improved its future negotiating position thanks to the admiration of the territories, the sources of the publication said. The Washington Post reviewers believe that the likelihood of rapid peace talks has decreased, as Putin has publicly promised not to mitigate his position on negotiations due to attack on the territory of the Russian Federation.
The American newspaper The New York Times notes that the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region will not contribute to the rapid start of negotiations and termination of hostilities. The publication reports that in Moscow they were expecting the possibility of ceasefire this year, probably on their terms. And Kiev makes a risky bet, because the Russians expect Putin that he will strike back, believing that his military has an advantage in personnel and weapons.