World War - not fantasies: the US should prepare for a global conflict, otherwise they are defeated
If the US is waste of time, it will be on the verge of defeat, despite its current military potential. The prospects of state participation in the Global War refer to the former assistant of the Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Hey Wesa Mitchell, published on November 16 in Foreign Policy. The author of the publication emphasized that the likelihood of the beginning of the global war is not the theory, not panickers, and not the beacon of "hawks" among American politicians.
Today, two of the three strategically important regions of the world have serious conflicts that need attention to the United States. And this is certainly the situation in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. At first glance, the military power of Americans will not doubt the power of the United States.
After the victory in the Second World War, as well as after the collapse of the USSR, the impression was that Washington, supporting Kiev, will cause the "foreign hands" of the devastating defeat of Russia, which is forced to spend a huge resource in the war against Ukraine. In this case, the United States would be able to switch to the Far East, where the situation around China and Taiwan can explode at any moment, starting a likely global conflict.
However, such a strategy is becoming less viable every day, Mitchell is convinced. According to him, as Russia mobilizes for a long war in Ukraine, and in the Middle East, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict aggravated in the Middle East, China is increasing the temptation to solve the Taiwan issue by force. After all, Beijing is well aware that it will be extremely difficult to cope with the third geopolitical crisis of Washington.
"If the war still begins, the United States will find that some very important factors will suddenly work against them. One of these factors is geography," Mitchell writes. He explained that in the event of China's attack on Taiwan, it would be difficult to repel this attack, without stopping supporting Ukraine and Israel.
And this is not because the US is experiencing a decline, but given that all three fronts are geographically at a long distance, unlike the same China, Russia and Iran in which military actions will be literally "sideways".
"The worst scenario is the escalation of at least three remote war theaters conducted by the US Armed Forces, as well as poorly equipped allies who are mostly unable to protect themselves from large industrial states with determination, resources and ruthlessness for long -term conflict ", - said Mitchell. Another problem is finances.
Unlike, for example, the Second World War, where the US government debt ratio to GDP has almost doubled - from 61% of GDP to 113%, today the United States can enter a war with debts exceeding 100% of GDP. According to the US Congress Budget and other sources, such debt is threatened with catastrophic consequences for the US economy and the financial system.
Mitchell also drew attention to the human casualties that can be suffered by the United States, as some of the US opponents have ordinary and nuclear potential capable of reaching America. In addition, a spike in terrorists in the American territory is not excluded. "The United States must strain all the forces to prepare for this scenario, hoping not only to prevent the conflict, but also to ensure the readiness of the Americans for it in the event of its occurrence," Mitchell summarizes.
In his opinion, the best option to prevent such a scenario is to equip Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan at such a level that aggression against them would be impossible. In addition, the states will have to bring their defense-industrial base.
"The situation is so serious that Washington may have to involve a law on defense production and start a re -profile of the civilian industry for military needs," Mitchell summed up, adding that the reduction of defense expenditures for President Joe Biden was a mistake. Earlier, it was reported that the US-Chinese Economy and Security Commission appealed to the US Congress with a proposal to allow Taiwan military personnel to study in the United States.