Fighting for the water area: Ukrainian strikes on the Navy of Russia in the Black Sea
These advantages can allow Russia's naval forces to implement the Bastion Strategy, in which the Russian fleet operates from relatively safe coastal areas that are well protected from the outside, and uses these areas for the task of distant strikes on critically important infrastructure of Ukraine. If Ukraine manages to displace Russian occupation forces from Kherson, Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk regions, Moscow can activate the use of the Black Sea as a strategic buffer to protect Crimea.
According to B. J. Armstrong, the naval strategy can be reduced to a simple concept: domination in the sea, and then the use of this domination for blockade, bombing or placement of troops on Earth. Despite the failure, the Russian fleet is still capable of bombing goals in Ukraine and continue the blockade of the country. Russia may well use the Black Sea to avoid open military defeat and use its naval superficiality to press Ukrainian leaders and avoid the peace talks in favor of Ukraine.
Focus has translated the new text of Daniel Fiotta, dedicated to the failures of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. Russia still has a relative military advantage in the Black Sea, despite the attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Crimea using flying and marine drones. Russia still has the possibility of using frigates and submarines for the task of striking winged rockets in Ukrainian troops and civilian sites, as it was throughout the war.
For its part, Ukraine does not have the forces of maritime base, which could seriously resist the naval forces of Russia. Its flagship frigate "Hetman Sahaidachny" was flooded in March 2022, and the country is forced to rely mainly on a small fleet of four or five patrol boats used for exploration and protection. Such vessels limit the capabilities of the Ukrainian Fleet on the task of blows to the Russian Navy and key military facilities in the Crimea.
While the war is ongoing, the event needs to be revised to support the Navy of Ukraine. First of all, it is necessary to increase the supply of anti -ship missiles and to ensure the preparation of amphibious forces for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the long run, the event should also help Ukraine grow its regular naval forces such as frigates and submarines.
The ultimate goal is to help Ukraine change the naval balance to consolidate its territorial conquests on land and not allow Russia to strengthen the sea bastion in the Black Sea, from where it will be able to strike in Ukraine, violate maritime exports and organize a bridgehead for future offensive operations. Despite the noticeable successes in the sinking of Russian ships, Ukraine remains in a relatively disadvantageous position on the Russian Navy.
Baiden's administration promised to provide Ukraine with river patrol vessels, but they are mostly intended for the protection of river routes, not for participation in the Maritime War. It is also unclear when such vessels are physically retrieved by Ukraine, given the closure of Bosphorus and Dardanelles for all warships in February 2022, including NATO member state ships.
In any case, it is obvious that Russia has suffered great losses in the Black Sea, given the drowning of the flagship ship of the Black Sea Fleet "Moscow" in April 2022, the destruction of at least four other ships and an attack on the last flagship ship "Admiral Makarov" in late October 2022 . Ukraine has used other means to tasks in Crimea.
For example, the attack of Ukraine on the Kerch Bridge in October may have been made with the help of a bomb embedded in a truck, although they do not reject other explanations. Despite the obvious benefit from the blow on the Kerch Bridge, Russia still has a naval advantage in the Black and Azov Seas.
Russia continues to consider the Black Sea as the main direction in the war against Ukraine: Moscow has already planned and carried out landing of the landing and struck strokes from the sea in Ukrainian cities and military facilities. Ukraine used mines to protect against landing near such large coastal cities as Odesa. It was in the sea that Russia was able to slow or stop the export of grain and fertilizers from Ukraine to suppress its economy.
According to some reports, the loss of grain exports from Ukraine was 46% compared to last year, at the same time expected that total GDP of Ukraine will decrease by about 35% this year. Russia's Black Sea Fleet can be used to support the defense of the internal areas that are currently threatened. Let's take Kherson: this city is still within the Russian naval missile rocket.
The use of the Navy is thus effective for the task of strokes for Ukrainian purposes without overloading logistics lines, since more and more Russians are going to the front to strengthen positions. Russia has also demonstrated that it without hesitation causes civilian objects to intimidate Ukrainian citizens and prepare cities for seizure of territories by the Russian army. Ukraine seeks to resist the naval dominance of Russia.
Its management understands that investments in naval assets are a prerequisite for the struggle and containment of Russia in the Black Sea, as evidenced by the agreement with the UK in January 2022 for the purchase of warships. In 2014, after the illegal seizure of Crimea and the naval base in Sevastopol, Ukraine lost up to 75% of its naval fleet. By 2024, Ukraine will receive the corvette "Hetman Ivan Mazepa", which is the first of the two ships built in Turkey.
Ankara and Kyiv have concluded a defense agreement in 2020, but given the current situation, it is unclear whether the ships will indeed make a dangerous transition through the Black Sea. In addition, despite the report that ADA Corvets will be equipped with Harpoon anti -ship missiles, firing tools and torpedoes, which is still little known what a set of technologies will receive these ships. There are signs that Russia is increasingly afraid of Ukrainian blows to the Black Sea Fleet.
Ukraine has repeatedly managed to impress Russian ships in the port-along with successful attacks on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia and the Russian Navy, based on Russia-occupied Crimea. After these blows, there was a report that Russia moved its Kilo submarines from Crimea to southern Russia for protection. For Russia, the lack of free access to the Ukrainian coast is a serious challenge, as its winged caliber missiles pose a threat to Ukraine.
The displacement of Russian submarines from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk has become an outstanding feat for Ukraine, especially since it has virtually no prototic means. However, Russia may face a lack of winged missiles, taking into account pre -war reports of unstable reserves of these weapons and its high costs during invasion. Although the estimates differ, Russia can still have more than 50% of its pre -war reserves, which will continue to strike from the Navy platforms in the Black Sea.
Russia also faces an important geographical problem: it does not control access to the Black Sea. According to Montrere 1936, Turkey blocked access to Dardanelles and Bosphorus from the beginning of the invasion in February. However, Russia has found ways to bypass the closure of Turkey. For example, she used civilian vessels to ship goods and equipment to Syria and back.
In August 2022, it was reported that the vessels under the civilian flag were transported by the C-300 anti-aircraft missile complex from the Massa (Syria) to Novorossiysk in the Black Sea. In any case, the purpose of Russia is to preserve the sea bastion consisting of mines for submarines and missiles, as well as marine mines. Bastion is a well -protected area of the water area where the Russian fleet can act in relative security.
This bastion can be used to maintain control of the sea, containing foreign naval intervention and difficulty in any political settlement or end of the war in favor of Ukraine. The presence of Russia in the Black Sea also gives leaders to political and military flexibility if they agree to cease fire or defeat in this round of hostilities.
If the Black Sea remains the Kremlin's sea bastion, the military will be able to use excess ships and submarines for the attacks of winged rockets at any moment in the future. In addition, Moscow took steps to protect its fleet from the attack of Ukraine, although it was not easy because of attacks of unmanned seawater on a Russian fleet in Sevastopol. It still supports a large coastline system to protect more than 36650 kilometers of the coastline.
Since the beginning of the war, the number of marine mines has increased in the Black Sea, which complicates the safe maneuvering of trade and military courts. Russia is also capable of creating significant political and economic problems in the Black Sea. For example, in response to attacks on its fleet in Sevastopol in October 2022, the Kremlin suspended an export agreement that allows grain and grain exports from Ukraine.
In the end, the Kremlin has resigned and restored the grain agreement, but the initial text was written in such a way as to leave flexibility in Moscow in decision making. The Kremlin can use the terms of the agreement to suspend its execution and then use the naval fleet to threaten supply. This allows the Russian Navy to be used to Ukraine's economic coercion.
Russia has means and equipment for the use of naval power to support current operations in Ukraine and pressure on Kyiv, even in the event of hostilities. The event should consider how to keep the Russian naval goals in the discussion of the types of weapons that it provides the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukraine has demonstrated a high level of pragmatism and ingenuity on the battlefield, using drones and homemade anti -ship missiles to keep the Russian fleet at a distance.
An attack on the Kerch Bridge is an example of what Ukraine is ready to go to the power of Ukraine without even having naval opportunities. Depending on how far Ukraine rejects Russian troops, the event should be reviewed about the supply of Kiev weapons, which is related to the Navy.
It can be started by increasing the supply of anti -ship missiles, such as Harpoon, or the training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use the microtopods for patrol ships, which they are likely to receive in the future. Today, calls for increasing the number of drones, fighters and tanks are constantly sounding, but it is also necessary to consider the naval dimension seriously, as some patrol ships will not be able to change the naval balance in favor of Russia.
The Russian naval strategy in the Black Sea is inseparable from its wider military goals. The serious defeat of Russian troops in the Ukrainian territory will probably make the Kremlin return to its Black Sea bastion, from where it can try to use its relative naval advantage to maintain military status-quo, blocking frozen conflict or delaying time and re-equipment for future attacks on Ukraine. Russia still has a certain degree of strategic depth in the Black Sea.