War in 2025: How energy has changed and why tariffs for the population will increase in Ukraine
For complete recovery, not return to the initial pre -war level, but to improve the state of the energy sector, you need $ 50. 5 billion. So outlined the situation in the energy sphere of analytics of the Kiev School of Economics (KSE). And energy experts appreciated the chances of restoring Ukrainian energy and told whether to realistically expect life without blackouts.
Data on losses in the Ukrainian KSE energy industry coincide with the estimation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which as of the summer of 2024 evaluated Ukrainian energy losses due to Russian shelling of $ 56. 5 billion. During the war, the Russian army occupied about 18 GW of capacity, in particular the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, which is considered the largest in Eastern Europe - the capacity of all six power units is installed, is 6040 MW.
As of September last year, Russia made 25 massive rocket-okory attacks on Ukraine's power system. This is evidenced by the data published on the portal of Energy Map of the Ukrainian Analytical Center DIXI GROUP. Kakhovskaya and Dniprovskaya hydroelectric power station, as well as Zmiiv and Trypillian TPPs were completely destroyed, Kakhovskaya and Dniprovska hydroelectric power station, as well as the Snakers and Trypillian TPPs were completely destroyed.
Private thermal power plants, including Ladizhinsk, Burshtyn, Dobrotvirskaya, Kurakhiv, Kryvyi Rih and Dnieper TPP, have been critical (more than 80%). "Damaged infrastructure for billions of dollars. The most sensitive damage and destruction is Dniproges. It is a really great loss for Ukraine. And it should be emphasized that Dniproges is a power plant that seriously added the opportunity to balance our power system.
And we have a shortage of shunting capacity so its loss is very noticeable, " - said the director of the Razumkov Center energy programs Vladimir Omelchenko. Russian troops have actually destroyed all oil refineries in Ukraine and repeatedly damaged a significant proportion of oil and oil storage infrastructure. According to experts, the highest losses (recall that the total amount of losses in energy exceeds $ 56 billion) caused the destruction of electricity generation facilities ($ 8.
5 billion), main electricity transmission lines ($ 2. 1 billion), and oil and gas infrastructure ($ 3. 3 billion). "The needs of electricity sector recovery are estimated at $ 33. 8 billion, including $ 29. 3 billion for generation facilities. $ 14. 8 billion and a centralized heat supply sector - $ 1. 4 billion without taking into account Restoration of large CHPs, "the KSE report reads.
The DIXI GROUP Analytical Center Research Director Roman Nitsovich in turn notes that during the war, when information for security reasons is not open, accurate data on capacity loss and their restoration. Therefore, conclusions can only be made according to the evaluation of damaged, lost or occupied objects. "Official significant details about the number and type of facilities that are now available.
As a result of the loss of these three years of war, we can say that we have a significant reduction in the capacities big cities. Shahheda has been injured in the critical infrastructure of more than 100,000 inhabitants of the city And about attacks on gas infrastructure that can affect the availability of a resource for generating companies, " - Roman Nitsovich added in the focus comment.
In the face of constant rocket attacks, to restore the destroyed objects, which takes time from several months to several years and does not guarantee protection during the next attack by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, it is impractical to consider energy. The exit is seen in current and major repairs, the so -called "donor stations", as well as a distribution generation - thousands of small objects for electricity production.
"It will all depend on how much these capacity can be repaired. I note that it is a generation. About distribution networks, substations, many of this also requires major repairs. Some of the objects seem to be repaired, but cannot function properly. In the face of increasing consumer load and frost, they risk not withstand, " - said in a focus an expert of the Institute of Energy Strategies Yuri Korolchuk. There were 30 key substations in Ukraine.
During the war, almost everyone was damaged that 30 key substations operated in Ukraine. Almost everyone was damaged during the war. "Back in 2023, two substations were overhauled, but in all other cases they cost ongoing repairs. So at least seven of key Ukrainian substations required repairs in 2024. As far as I know, there was nothing to do. The technical level of substations, but I will not add capital work. The power systems of Ukraine.
The expert also noted that in Ukraine they use the so -called "donor" objects, such as Kurakhiv TPP, which was dismantled for spare parts to restore other destroyed power plants. For a long time, the Russians fired at Kurakhiv TPP from artillery. And in April 2024, losses from blows on this TPP was estimated at almost one billion hryvnias. But finally, it was decided to disassemble after the invaders were blown up by the bridge that was brought to the station.
It was impossible to restore the bridge, so the TPP, which has worked for decades, decided to disassemble. Before that, DTEK was looking for spare parts for decommissioned power plants throughout Europe. But even the partners who had spare parts of the Soviet times took months to design and transport them to Ukraine. "Equipment that does not participate in the work or the old blocks is used.
However, this, of course, is not supplied by power companies as a solution to the problem," - added expert Yuri Korolchuk. He also noted that Ukraine did not plunge in the winter of 2025 into new blackouts, primarily due to the efficient and operational operation of the energy -renewing, reconstruction and healing of damaged networks. And winter, except for the last weeks of February, cannot be called frosty.
However, there is another factor that influenced the fact that Ukrainians have spent this winter with light. "Від другої половини 2024 року дещо знизилися промислові потужності, що дає можливість не відключати населення і лише обмежувати бізнес", — каже Корольчук.
The Government of Ukraine approved a new fixed tariff for electricity for the population, in accordance with the CMU Resolution No. 632, from June 1, 2024, the electricity tariff for household consumers increased from 2. 64 UAH/kWh to 4. 32 UAH/kWh. It is worth noting that the tariff is fixed and does not differentiate by consumption. Since such a price should be valid until April 30, 2025, changes in the cost of electricity for the population are not expected at least by May.
From June 1, 2024, the electricity tariff for household consumers increased from 2. 64 UAH/kWh to 4. 32 UAH/kWh in accordance with the October Memorandum of the International Monetary Fund, after the fifth review Increasing prices for energy in Ukraine are not planned in the near future. The document does not contain direct requirements for increasing tariffs for Ukraine, which has already been reported at the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine.
However, due to the increase in hostile strokes and firing of Ukraine infrastructure in the information space, the topic of changes in electricity tariffs appears from time to time. In particular, some experts do not reject the options that during 2025 tariffs for light can increase. Thus, Oleg Popenko, the head of the utility consumers Union, suggested that from the beginning of the summer the price of electricity can increase to 6.
64 UAH per kWh: "For electricity for the population it is planned to raise tariffs from June 1 2025 to the figure 64 64. pennies.
As previously reported by focus, a significant increase in the cost of electricity in the early summer of 2024 was concerned about citizens, but experts explain that such a decision was forced, which allows state-owned companies to stop subsidizing the population and raise enough money to sell the projects from the completion of the 3rd and 4 -To Khmelnitsky NPP units, which focus wrote earlier.
It will also allow Ukrhydroenergo to start the construction of the Kaniv HPP, which will have 1000 MW of power. "People are asking questions against this background, because significant investments in the completion of the KhNPP, procurement made by Energoatom are announced, etc. Obviously, this is the context in which you will need to communicate the decision to raise tariffs for the population. So I do not exclude the likelihood of increasing prices, even this year.
The expert explained that it is a broader market liberalization strategy that the government has to develop and submit a liberalization road map in accordance with Ukraine Facility next year.
"It would be logical to see a certain sequence of steps and understanding of the schedule or the perspective where market prices are introduced for the population, and thus we balance the situation for suppliers and those state -owned companies that provide these preferential prices through the mechanism of imposing special responsibilities (It is about Energoatom and Ukrhydroenergo). Resources, the extra revenue received by suppliers, "says Nitsovich.
In Ukraine, the electricity tariff, introduced from the beginning of June 2024, extends to all household consumers, in Ukraine, in Ukraine, the electricity tariff, introduced from the beginning of June 2024, extends to all household consumers: from October 1, 2024 to April 30, 2025 for April 2024 людей, які мають квартири/будинки із електроопаленням, діють наступні тарифи: Також від початку In 2025, certain categories of citizens may receive electricity at low tariffs until the end of the heating season.
It is about co -owners of large apartment buildings where there is no gas supply or places where there are problems with heat supply. The government has made changes to the resolution, and the residents of such buildings are able to pay for electricity 2 UAH 64 kopecks. for kilowatt by the end of April 2025. By the way, in Ukraine there are current tariff ratios for owners of two -zone and three -zone electricity meters.
At night, from 23:00 to 07:00, when the load on the power system is the lowest, the cost of the tariff is less than 50%, so users pay only 2. 16 UAH/kWh. But the tariffs for business dated June 1, 2024 have increased seriously. The main reasons for the increase in prices are the need for repair work of energy infrastructure affected by Russian attacks, as well as the desire to improve the conditions of functioning of the electricity market to ensure effective interaction with EU countries.
According to experts, to equate tariffs for the population to business tariffs in Ukraine is unlikely to intend. At the same time, the focus wondered how much electricity costs for the population in some European countries. According to Eurostat, they are high enough. What is the cost of electricity for the population in some European countries* Country price for households (expenses less than 1000 kW/h), UAH per kWh Poland 12. 7 Czech Republic 24. 8 Slovakia 11. 4 Lithuania 11. 1 Estonia 16.
2 Croatia 10 Hungary 4. 2 Romania 7 Greece 21. 1 Bulgaria 5. 2 Georgia 2. 3 Moldova 5. 5 *Eurostat data for the first half of 2024, the tariff is transferred to UAH. At the NBU course as of February 20, 2025. Among the countries on the list are those in whom Ukraine actively buys electricity. And import volumes are increasing every year. Thus, according to Expro Electricity monitoring, 2024 compared to 2023, the country increased electricity imports by 5. 5 times to 4. 4 million MWh.