The protracted war is against Russia. As the Sanctions of the West begin to work
He not only counts on the demoralization of the Ukrainian people and on "fatigue from Ukraine" in the West; He also suggests that his own country has endurance for a long and cruel struggle. However, after almost two years, during which Putin has largely managed to isolate the majority of his subjects from the war, the consequences of Western sanctions - combined with astronomical and growing human and monetary costs of conflict - are finally beginning to ache to the general public in Russia.
Immediately after the invasion of Ukraine at the beginning of last year, when the United States, the European Union and other democratic countries tried to disconnect Russia from global financial and trade networks, many Western commentators hoped that the country's economy would fall quickly, forcing Putin to leave. This did not happen. This year, the average income of the Russians has increased and the country's GDP has increased by 2 percent. Unemployment is at a record low.
Despite the increase, the budget deficit still remains guided at 2 percent of GDP. The high oil prices made Putin to avoid increasing taxes for individuals, while increasing the exporters' fees and entering a one -time tax on unforeseen corporations. The Russian foreign trade balance, though lower than last year, is still purely positive, despite the sanction of the event.
Uninsured Gray Fleet tankers violate the $ 60 price limit set by a sunset for the sale of Russian oil, which India and China continue to absorb millions of barrels. Moscow spends some of these incomes in the so -called parallel markets, such as Turkey and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, from where many products and technologies that fall under sanctions are supplied to Russia.
However, over time, Russia began to suffer from isolation from the richest and most modern economies of the world. Oil continues to bring billions of dollars, but China and India are buying Russian export products with significant discounts compared to the fact that European buyers have paid for invasion. Russia has also lost its income from natural gas. Almost all pipes of the State Energy Company "Gazprom" go to the West, and construction of new ones requires years and huge money.
Prior to the war, Russia imported most of its key products, and parallel markets cannot compensate for the loss of supply since the beginning of 2022. The war is sufficient to support daily activities, but not enough to prevent steady degradation of the economy and society. "Replacers" produced in Russia do not live up to expectations, and deficiency and breakage are multiplied throughout the economy, covering such various products as tires, printing paper, aircraft details and cellular towers.
Among the most painful wandles are the disappearance of up to 65 percent of vital medicines in some major cities. The Ministry of Health warned about the future deficiency of almost 200 vital drugs. Meanwhile, the direct consequences of the Putin War and financial waste are becoming more obvious. Military surgery coats Kremlin reserves of money, supplies and people. Defense expenditures, which already make up about 40 percent of the state budget, should double next year.
Considering that about $ 300 billion in Russian sovereign funds was frozen in the West, the Kremlin was forced to withdraw $ 38 billion from a national welfare fund for a rainy day. It is one fifth fund and 2 percent of the country's GDP.
How long will it take before Putin starts raising taxes and printing banknotes? To combat 7 percent inflation and strengthen the ruble, which at some point in the beginning of this year fell to a record low of $ 100 per USD, the central bank increased the interest rate to 15 percent, which further reduced economic activity.
As a sign of stagnation, if not recession, economic growth, it is estimated to fall to 1 percent of next year - or one half of this year, which in itself is mainly related to the sharp increase in the production of weapons and ammunition. Even worse, Russian consumers can soon come across difficulty when spending money on their own needs.
Along with the statements that Russia was fighting the Nazis in Ukraine, the Kremlin has been resurrected by another stereotype of World War II: "Everything is for the front, all for victory!". This slogan is now used to encourage Russian society to pass on "humanitarian" parcels to soldiers in Ukraine, while private enterprises are pushing for the transition to military production.
Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullin expressed regret to "inability" of domestic producers to meet consumer demand. For the first time since the 1990s, the actual control of prices has led to a lack of gasoline and diesel in late summer and early autumn, which will probably be even more deficiency. Nabiullina also warned of the "acute shortage" of labor.
Trillions of rubles, which the Kremlin puts in the military-industrial complex, cannot fill the deficit of educated personnel after hundreds of thousands of men aged 18 to 30 years have escaped from the country, escaping from conscription. Even more alarming is the shortage of soldiers: the reserve of potential conscripts, which seems inexhaustible, begins to look quite small.
Despite the fact that Putin sends about 20,000 people in Ukraine every month, he desperately tries to avoid general mobilization, which will probably be unpopular, before the presidential election next year. So, it seems, it reaches the bottom of the barrel.
The call of prisoners to participate in the war in Ukraine began as a bizarre campaign, initiated by Wagner PEC, allegedly a private military company, led by the late former Putin's former friend, who became a rebel - Eugene Prigogin, but now has become a standard practice. Prisoners are also forced to go to military service. The number of prisoners decreased by about 54,000 people. Rapists and killers, some of whom were sentenced to life imprisonment after six months of stay in Ukraine.
Apparently, the authorities are still experiencing a lack of soldiers, so the authorities have begun to put pressure on many of about 2. 8 million migrant workers in the country from mainly Muslim countries in Central Asia. In the city of Moscow and adjacent to it, the region of the same name is a jurisdiction, where at least 1 million Tajiks, Uzbeks and Kyrgyz lives now live-the police have raids to mosques after the services, pushing young people to buses that send them to military centers.
So far, Putin has suppressed the internal opposition to his war through a combination of repression, insightful policy and financial generosity. Criticism of the war, in particular the name of its war, not a special military operation, is punishable by 15 years of imprisonment. The Kremlin introduces high quotas for poor rural residents of Russia and ethnic minorities in the North Caucasus and Siberia; The major cities of Central Russia, especially Moscow and St.
Petersburg, are easy to protect the sons of the elite from military service. The soldiers who are found in Ukraine are generously rewarded. In July this year, the starting monthly salary of a mobilized reserve in Ukraine was 195,000 rubles ($ 2,200) - almost four times higher than the average income in the country. The payment of the wounded is 3 million rubles ($ 34 thousand), and families of dead soldiers receive 5 million rubles ($ 54,600).
These payments were supported by veterans, their families and even whole villages, but obviously, they did not prompted enough volunteers to replace hundreds of thousands of soldiers who were killed or injured in the Putin War. Putin's admission to the military service of prisoners and immigrants, many of whom do not have documents, is unlikely to have a political effect. But protests among ethnic Russians are a completely different matter.
Last month, the wife and mother of mobilized reservists came to a rally demanding to return their loved ones, who spent a year in the trenches. "People are tired, and it is important to the authorities to demonstrate that the normal life of people is not threatened," women wrote in a post on the Telegram-channel "Road Home" from 25,000 subscribers. "But we tell you, our friends: your life is in danger - and more! We are fucking, and you will be fucked too.
Here and now we create the basis of social unity against the mobilization of an unlimited term. " Despite the fact that the "road home" movement is small and germ, it signals the Kremlin about more serious problems than falling a ruble or budget deficit. Wars for exhaustion are solved, at least, as a degree in a moral spirit in the rear as the offensives and retreats on the battlefield.
Promoting his invasion of Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly aroused memories of the Second World War, in which the Soviet people have brought incredible sacrifices, while saving most of its population from harmful consequences. But it will not last forever. "You may not be interested in the war, but the war is interested in you," the revolutionary communist Lev Trotsky said, who brought the Red Army a hundred years ago to win in the Civil War in Russia.