Taiwan war can cost the world of $ 10 trillion or 10% of world GDP - Bloomberg

Agency analysts have considered two scenarios of possible development. The first is the invasion of China into Taiwan with subsequent US intervention, the second is the shopping blockade of the island. The probable war through Taiwan can cost the world economy of $ 10 trillion, which is approximately 10% of world GDP. This is more than losses from the war in Ukraine, the Covid pandemics and the global financial crisis. Such data provides analysts of Bloomberg in the material of January 9.

"The growing economic and military power of China, the growing sense of Taiwan's national identity and the unstable relations between Beijing and Washington create all the conditions for the crisis," the authors of the publication write. It was stated that the tension around Taiwan has weakened somewhat at the November summit between US President Joe Biden and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who promised to take "friendly" activities in this direction.

However, many analysts do not call into question the likelihood of an inevitable Chinese invasion of Taiwan, writes Bloomberg. In the publication, experts considered two scenarios - the invasion of China into Taiwan, in the event of which the United States will be involved in the conflict, as well as the trade blockade of the island.

In the first case, the following consequences were named: analysts emphasize that a relatively large percentage of losses for China is caused by a break in relations with the main trading partners and the lack of access to advanced semiconductors. At the same time, the loss for the US is largely due to Apple's dependence on the Asian electronics supply chain.

The blockade of the island threatens the following consequences: in any of the scripts, the key problem will be the loss of chip and semiconductors produced on Taiwan. Analysts have paid attention to the market capitalization of the 20 largest clients of Taiwanese Semiconductor Manupacturing, which reaches $ 7. 4 trillion.