The Armed Forces will be able to reach a significant breakthrough in the south: in ISW the conditions (map)
The Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to achieve a significant operational breakthrough on the southern line of the front in the course of counter -offensive actions, if several key assumptions of analysts are confirmed about the capabilities of Ukrainian defenders in this area, the state of defensive lines of the invaders and not only. This was reported in the new report of the American Institute of War.
In particular, according to ISW analysts, a significant breakthrough of defense forces in the south will be possible under the following conditions: although analysts emphasize that this will not happen if any of these assumptions will be incorrect, but they add-there are signs that these assumptions remain valid at the time of writing the report.
"Isw continues to believe that Russian armed forces do not have sufficient forces deployed in the West of the Zaporozhye region to fully complete its echelorated defense, and that Ukrainian forces must be able to act through Russian field fortifications faster if they are not properly staffed", - said in a message of analysts.
According to the Institute of War Study, the Armed Forces operations in the Bakhmut area were rolled up by Russian troops in eastern Ukraine and far from the Southern Front, and helped prevent the creation of a strategic reserve of the invaders. ISW also noted that it remains unclear whether there is enough backup power and combat capacity in Kiev to continue offensive operations in the south until Russian defense is broken down to effectively use the operational breakthrough.
It also remains unclear how well the Russian positions south of the current area of hostilities are replaced and well prepared. "The Ukrainian counter-offensive is in an extremely dynamic phase, and ISW is not ready to give any confident prognosis of events," analysts said. They also emphasized that the patience to the plan of the Ukrainian campaign and to expect that Ukraine will continue until the winter of 2023 until the spring of 2024.
"Ukraine does not necessarily have a sudden and sharp deep breakthrough to succeed," - emphasizes in ISW. The key findings of ISW analysts we will remind you that on September 24, ISW analysts reported that the Armed Forces were able to overcome the next line of defense of Russian troops and enter the village of Verbovo in the Pologovsky district.