When and with what losses will this war end? It all depends on the motivation of Russian soldiers

Ukraine is fighting in the war against Russia for the forces of citizens: we know that we are protecting. For what do citizens of Russia fight in Ukraine? The issue of motivation of Russian soldiers is one of the critical issues of the present war. Because it depends on when and with what loss it will end. Modern states are fighting citizens who know that they are protecting. Premodern archaic states do not have citizens, only subjects. They have several options. 1. mercenaries.

The army of continuous professional mercenaries can create miracles, but only in local conflicts, because there can be much professionals. There is not enough war for the Great War. 2. Money. Social lower classes, debt, unemployment and hopelessness, choose war as a way to break free as a social elevale from the dungeon. The quality of such fighters is minimal, they are usually not able to master the military professions. Their fate is cannon meat. 3. Ideology.

The state can try by propaganda to encourage people to go to war for some values. But the premodern state does not have citizens, it has subjects, which by definition do not perceive ideology. The Russian population has long been accustomed to political passivity and learned helplessness. And now it is almost impossible to explain something about the "Patriotic War".

Communism as a modern ideology was capable of indoctrination (hence the volunteers in 1941), "Russian peace" as an archaic ideology-is not capable. 4. Forced mobilization and fear. For this purpose not enough authoritarianism is needed - totalitarianism, all -power of security forces. And totalitarianism rapidly reduces the quality of human capital, hence the low capacity of management systems.

The researcher of the history of the German-Soviet War, Mark Solonin, proved that the Red Army, despite Stalin's authoritarianism, was completely scattered three times. What does Russian President Vladimir Putin have at his disposal? A little mercenaries, but not enough. Disabled ideology. The small corps of the army caste is professionals who have their own ideology and do not perceive Putin very much. A little money that is massively married to the war, but incapable of creating a modern army.

A little fear in the form of Kadyrovsky "Zagradostwow". From this mix is ​​a very large army, but poorly trained, poorly cohesive, poorly motivated (as well as hungry and turning). The average Russian from the "deep people" supports the war in Ukraine, but does not want to die at all. He approves of war on TV. Is there a total mobilization in such conditions that Russian "jasters" scream about? This requires totalitarianism, and it takes time, at least a few years.

In the context of ordinary authoritarianism, the Russian population is hidden from the conscription in all possible ways. (There are also economic and logistics problems. ) In this situation, the regime resorts to desperate solutions. The first is the formation of national battalions.

Since Russian nationalism does not work (nationalism is the ideology of free people, not slaves; nationalism and modernity are almost synonymous), maybe Tatar, Bashkir or Ingush nationalism may work? If it worked, such battalions would be subject to counter-propaganda and could eventually become the basis of the self-defense forces of new proclaimed states, as it happened with the national battalions of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in the First World War (because loyalty to its people is higher than the imperial commanders).

But it didn't work. Conscious Bashkirs do not understand what to do in foreign war. In the end, the social lowlands, cannon meat were again recruited. The second is the formation of private armies. Similar to the essence of the decision to transfer mobilization to someone else - not to the local authorities of national republics, then to the heads of state corporations ("oligarchs" in Russia are not independent players, but the same semi -state corporations).