About 300 SU left: Russian risks aircraft for the benefit in the air - isw

According to analysts, the PCS of the Russian Federation does not reduce activity to maintain a tactical offensive in the Avdeevsky direction, despite noticeable losses. The Russian forces, apparently, are ready to lose some of the aviation for the sake of tactical success along the Avdiivka - Donetsk line. On March 2, the Air Force of Ukraine reported that another Su-34 aircraft was destroyed, which in the morning of March 1 was struck by managed bombs in Ukrainian positions.

This is stated in the summary of the Institute of War Study of March 2. The Commander of the Air Force of Ukraine Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk later stated that the Armed Forces had knocked down one of the Su-34 aircraft and tried to knock down two more Su-34 and one SU-35. According to the command, 15 Russian aircraft have been knocked down since February 17.

The Speaker of the Air Force of Ukraine Colonel Yuri Ignat noted that new A-50 aircraft did not appear above the Azov Sea after destruction, without the Russian Su-34 and Su-35 forced to fly closer to the goals. Earlier, after the loss of aircraft, the activity of the Russian Federation was declining, but now, apparently, the CCS of the Russian Federation decided to take risks.

According to ISW estimates, the Russian troops have been able to temporarily establish a localized advantage in the air in the last days of Avdiivka siege. They are likely to try to support the tactical offensive in the Avdeevsky direction for the continuation of offensive operations, although there is a risk of losing a large number of aircraft.

ISW still believes that the loss of 15 aircraft and possibly several highly skilled pilots in about two weeks is not something that can be neglected in PCS. In Russia, there are probably about 300 different SU fighters. Recall that the Kremlin is preparing a hybrid war against another country. A request to join the Russian Federation at the congress of deputies of all levels in Transnistria can serve as a starting point to strengthen hybrid operations against Moldova.