Putin is beneficial to world economic instability. Why didn't his plan work?

"Destabilization in the world energy and food markets, which, among other reasons, has led to a burst of global inflation, has been and remains part of Putin's plan. But partner countries are already emerging from the acute turbulence period, and this is good news. " Opinion. While Ukraine begins a loop of the discount rate, our key partners have made another step in the direction of strengthening monetary policy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to increase: it is the 9th in a row raising the rates of ECBZ July 2022. On the eve of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the United States also continued the interest series after a short break, at the 11th time since March 2022. It increased by 25 bp. and reached 5. 25-5. 50%. This is a maximum of 22 years.

Both the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarda, and the Fed head, Jerome Powell, stated that the issue of further raising rates in the fall remains open and will depend on further progress in reducing consumer prices in the near future. In June, the annual inflation in the euro area slowed down to 5. 5% (10. 6% in October 2022), in the United States - up to 3% (from 9. 1% in June 2022). The Fed and the ECB continued raising the discount rates.

However, the potential of their further lifting is almost exhausted. However, basic inflation remains a challenge, which indicates the existence of inflation expectations, the normalization of which will take more time. Relatively high basic inflation in the Eurozone and the US reflects the secondary effects of energy inflation last year and the post-beneficial situation in low unemployment workers (in the euro area it is record low-6.

5%), which pushes the increase in real salaries and consumption. Actually, the controlled employment situation allows the ECB and Fed to continue the rapid cycle of rates, balancing between the cooling of the economy (with all the related consequences of reducing lending) and a decrease in inflation.

However, such balancing - in addition to other negative factors (from global defragmentation to geopolitical risks, the main of which remains the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine) - has its price. According to an updated worldwide inspection from the IMF, the real growth of the US economy in 2023 will slow down to 1. 8% (from 2. 1% in 2022), eurozones to 0. 9% (from 3. 5% in 2022) In particular, the largest economy - Germany - fixes the recession ("minus" 0.

3%) following the results of the current year. Currently, the markets agree that September for the Fed and October for the ECB will probably be months for the final raising of the rates or the beginning of a long pause in their increase, which will reduce the rates in 2024. The good news is that such estimates reflect the curtailment of recession and the expectation of "soft landing" for developed economies in 2023-2024.

The expected passage of the partner of the acute turbulence for us is good news. What does this mean to Ukraine? We are now detached from global financial markets, and we really notice the turbulence on them except for increasing the IMF borrowing rate, which is tied to the discount rates of central banks - issuers of world reserve currencies.

However, it is obvious that under other equal conditions, recession in the countries - the main trade partners (in particular, EU countries account for 62% of all exports in the first half of 2023, of which almost half of which are eurozone countries) and financial destabilization in them could have adversely affected them as The volume of trade and support of Ukraine.