Ukraine dominates the Black Sea: sea drones forced Russian vessels to go through the Baltic
The analyst begins with the thesis that Ukrainian marine drones "form a war" in the Black Sea. Unmanned boats sank a large number of Navy ships. But their presence is more strategic. Russia is forced to change its supply lines. And as the invasion of Ukraine, these lines showed are key. Sparta IV transport ship and Yaza tanker were usually used to transport military cargo.
Sparta IV was previously used to deliver C-300 missile systems from Syria to Russia, and "Yaza" is a SIG twin vessel, which was attacked by Ukrainian marine drones on August 5, 2023. At the end of February, two of these Russian vessels did something strange. They headed from the Russian Tartus base in Syria towards the Black Sea. But this time, when the vessels approached the Bosphorus, the straits that connect the Mediterranean with the Black, they sharply spread.
This is a significant indicator that Ukrainian marine drones have a strategic impact. Ukrainian marine unmanned overwill ships have become a determining means in the war. They fall into newspaper headings when Russian warships, such as Sergei Kotov, have been trapped, which was attacked on March 4. But their use has a much larger but less noticeable impact on the war. Russia no longer controls the Black Sea, as it was at the beginning of an invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Its lines of supply in the Black Sea, relying on such ships as "Sparta IV" have to be accompanied. Now they generally avoid the route, adding weeks to the supply lines. On March 4, a few hours before Sergiy Kotov's defeat under Kerch, the Russian ship "Ella" collided with four drone. It is probably the same ones that then drown the warship.
According to the captain's report, published on the Internet, which the analyst considers the truthful, Ella announced the observation of 4 marine drones at 14:15 local time. The vessel was on the coordinates of 43 ° 10. 1 south latitude and 033 ° 55. 7 Eastern longitude, in the middle of the Black Sea. It is 160 km south of Sevastopol and approximately halfway between the Kerch Strait and the Bosphorus Strait in Turkey. The ship was heading from Russia to Italy through Bosphorus.
The Ella's crew reported that marine drones were about 1 km from the vessel and watched for some time. It is likely that Ell was identified and not recognized enough for the attack. It is important that the crew reported that they could see drones only when they approached 3. 7 km from the ship. Ella radar has only up to 5. 5 km. It illustrates how difficult it is to notice drones.
It is possible that the drones were hunting for transport vessels that crossed the Black Sea, but the purpose of the operation was a warship. Another indicator is that at about the same time when Sparta IV and Yaza made a turn, two more Russian merchant vessels have also changed the course. Lady Maria and Baltic leader entered the port in the north of Turkey instead of crossing the Black Sea. Russia spends additional forces on the support of ships with cargo.
Ships are removed from two or more warships, some of them are outdated. But accompaniment efforts are no longer so effective for the termination of attacks, as evidenced by the recent success of Ukraine in the defeat of warships. In the end, Sparta IV and Yaz have returned to Syria and are now going to Russia through the Baltic Sea. They were joined by another weapon carrier, the Big Dipper.
The analyst notes that it is unlikely that Turkey blocked the passage to these ships - they were stopped by the threat of Ukrainian drones. Swimming around Europe through the Gibraltar Strait and adds a week to the Baltic Sea. Russia is likely to receive valuable cargo, but it cannot move freely in the Black Sea. The analyst does not think that Russian vessels will stop walking in the Black Sea at all, but the threat of drones is sufficient to seriously restrict their movement.