Unexpected allies. As the Nicaraguan Cordobors in the budget of the Russian Federation will win us war

The confident devaluation of the ruble that is now - is not just about the rescue of the budget of the Russian Federation. They have serious problems with the balance of payments. Revenue for resources is falling, the balance of services for a long time in minuses, the outflow of capital is ongoing. In April, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already reduced the forecast of the annual balance of payments from $ 66 to $ 47 billion. (Last year it was $ 227 billion).

And even Russian analysts are already considered too optimistic. In May, there was already a de facto deficit. And the Central Bank is not very eager to talk about another problem - the quality of the foreign exchange earnings that comes for resources. There are now more and more yuans, dirhams, Indian Rs and even Nicaraguan Cordobs and Sudan pounds.

And if with yuan and dirhams it is still possible to turn away (although incomparably less liquidity of these currencies means greater losses in the case of their use), then buying in India, and even more so, Nicaragua in the Russian Federation simply does not have in such volumes. Some Indian Rs are now settling in the accounts of the Russian Federation with Indian banks for $ 1-1. 2 billion. It is very convenient for India, but not for the Russian Federation.

That is, even if you rely on the excessively optimistic prognosis of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, a good quarter, and maybe a third of those 47 billion per year is illiquid. Some pennies remain. The Russian Federation simply lacks currencies for imports and coverage of capital outflows. And no one to borrow it.

The level of the problem, I would even say - despair, already reads well from the following masterpieces of the new -made genre: "Senators recommend the bank of Russia within the framework It is spoken in the statement of the Sovfeda on the results of the proceedings of the predator of the Central Bank of Russia Elvir Nabyulin. " Senators. Recommended. Elviri. To pay. Rupees, rials and other wrappers.

I imagine how the eye is pulled from such recommendations, she saw these wrappers in the grave, and they instead in the Russian Federation on the balance sheet. Yes, the Russians are patient, swallow. However, I am increasingly arguing that if after the end of this phase of war, some miracle does not happen fundamental restarting relations with the West, the Russian Federation will stop be a threat to us for many decades. They will simply not have enough resources for another Zerg Rash.