Delay, but not freedom for Ukraine: who give negotiations in Washington to opponents of
The meeting between the US and their concerned Ukrainian and European allies resembled those first captured moments of escape because it was better than anyone could expect after Russia's explicit diplomatic victory in Alaska. There were no toxic clashes between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky.
European leaders were not forced to make an existential choice between the destruction of the Transatlantic Alliance and the consent of the peace agreement, which would turn into a catastrophe for the safety of Kiev and their own. Instead, the meeting approved an obligation to develop security guarantees for Ukraine and to organize direct negotiations between Zelensky and Putin.
The main positive result of the circus of mutual compliments in Washington was Trump's consent to provide security guarantees within any agreement that Ukraine will eventually sign with Russia. This is a prerequisite for any discussion of territorial concessions and, therefore, to reach an agreement. Without US participation, this would not be possible, and by Monday, such participation was far from guaranteed.
Trump states that these guarantees will be reliable and will provide Ukraine with broad protection. Their form still has to be determined, but in the end it is a restraint, so their effectiveness will depend on confidence in the volatile white house.
Can Ukraine trust Trump that he will fulfill any obligation to come to her help? And more importantly, can Putin trust him? What the Kremlin considers is crucial, because regardless of whether the guarantees will be a collective defense obligation "NATO", the deployment of European forces of "Coalition", or both of these activities, Putin will have to admit that they will disrupt any attempt to restore the invasion. It will not be easy to create a mechanism that can cause such trust.
In fact, this means that Putin should think that in the event of an attack, there is at least a significant risk of direct entry into the war of Western Allies of Ukraine.
But why should he believe in it when Trump is constantly repeating that this is not a America's war, and stopped funding the departure of American weapons to Kiev? When he gladly accuses Ukraine at the beginning of the war, but Russia that invaded the territory of a sovereign neighbor - never? Perhaps the most striking remarks were a microphone recorded when Trump spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron in the White House on Monday: "I think he wants to make an agreement for me," Trump said.
- "Do you understand? How insanely it sounds. " It doesn't just sound insane - it's truly madness. Putin deals with the fact that he considers Russia's restoration in its legal place in history, a sacred duty that will provide him with a place in the pantheon of respected Russian leaders, from Peter the Great to Joseph Stalin. The restoration of Moscow's control over Ukraine is crucial for this project. He will not give up this attempt to please anyone.
He will give up only if it becomes obvious that he will not succeed. Ukrainians, Baltic and Poles understood it after the collapse of the Soviet Union. That is why they were torn to NATO - not to take part in a future attack on Russia, but to protect themselves from re -colonization. Western European leaders understood this later, and Trump still does not understand.
He apparently believes that the whole thing is in him - that the war would never have begun with him; If he returned to the White House, he would have put an end to her in 24 hours. And now that he is there - that if he could meet Putin alone, he would have concluded an agreement. It's fantasy. In addition, it makes the US President a light target for the former KGB curator.
It was so obvious in Alaska that even the FOX News leaders were severely criticized by the Trump team for announcing the victory, although the President sought to stop the fire and returned without achieving this goal. I have already said that Trump should not be criticized for being in contact with Putin or doing his best to find a way to put an end to this extremely bloody and dangerous war. But nothing of what happened on Alaska or Washington does not change the foundations of conflict.
And they are that Russia intends to annex as much as possible in the south and east of Ukraine and ensure control over the rest of the territory. Putin believes that he will eventually succeed. This is partly due to the fact that Ukraine is lack of human resources. Partly - with the fact that he does not care how many Russians will die to restore Moscow as the center of the Great State after he called the "tragedy" of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But most importantly, it is due to the fact that it deeply despises Europe's ability to resist without the support of the United States, and Trump made it clear that he wanted to get out of the war. Washington did the right thing. This will be much more than just saving the situation if effective security guarantees are achieved and personal talks between Putin and Zelensky.
However, no one should nurture illusions and the least white home: the absence of a truce is now a problem and failure, since full settlement remains a distant prospect. In the current environment, Putin will only agree to an agreement that will help to achieve its double goal: to establish control over Ukraine and to open the path to expanding the sphere of influence of Russia.