Outline limits: that power and society will consider a victory over Russia
Currently, it is said that Ukraine, which has been fighting against Russia for almost ten years, has no national concept of what should be understood as victory. From the beginning of a full -scale invasion and depending on the situation on the front from the mouth of power, there were several options. According to them, public opinion also changed. The goal should now be more clearly defined. Most Ukrainians believe in victory.
According to the recent survey of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 58% are convinced that Ukraine will win this war in the short term. But what will be considered a victory - a question. According to the sociologist, director of the Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine Yevgeny Golovakha, Ukrainians have no single understanding of what victory is. "There are Rigarists who believe that victory is when we come to Moscow and destroy the Putin regime.
Well, these are exotic ideas. For some it is a return It is not necessary because people who cannot be integrated into our society already live there, because they are already decomposed by Russian propaganda. People are different. It is dangerous if they all had the same opinion. This is a totalitarian system. And we have democracy, "he explained he. The sociologist said that personally, a victory for him is the return of all the occupied territories and joining NATO.
"If we are not in NATO, we have no guarantee that Russia will not restore its potential for several years and will not do what it did on February 24, 2022," the expert adds. At the same time, the scientist noted that, in his opinion, Ukraine is unlikely to return Crimea and Donbas in the near future and military. The Golovakha believes that we are waiting for endless negotiations on the return of these territories.
At the same time, the scientist is convinced that the opinion of citizens is, although scattered, but important. However, the authorities will have to be determined. Many are waiting for this definition from the mouth of President Vladimir Zelensky. And he always talks about the return of all territories and all people.
In the summer of 2023, during his visit to the Czech Republic, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined his reasoning about what victory is and what could be the end of the war. He then stressed that "it is important not only to end the fighting for Ukraine, but to restore territorial integrity, sovereignty, to return Ukrainians from Russian captivity and Russia stolen by Russia, as well as to punish Russian murderers for war crimes.
" Experts say that the limits of such a victory then and now look a bit, because it is not visible a clear plan of performing these tasks. "The problem is that almost the main claim to the current authorities is just the lack of something similar to a strategy. And the issue of victory is a difficult question, strategic.
We must think for yourself that is not very good or consulted with others - which is not very much I want not to demonstrate weakness and not share power, " - says Focus political analyst Alexander Kochetkov. In his opinion: Ideal, victory is the end of hostilities, the reconciliation of all territories, the stabilization of internal and foreign political, economic situation, so that it is better than at the beginning of the war.
If it all end with the fact that Russia will control the territories it has seized now, it will be considered a winner by all international concepts, because it will have more than it had before. "The situation can balance the effect of the sanctions imposed by the world," the expert continues. "If approached from this point of view, the victory will be improved will be our situation, security, economic, than it was before the war.
Then it is not necessary to talk about the territory, about the territory Return to the 1991 borders, and perceive the victory as a comprehensive. If we become a reliable partner of the event, we will get financial stability, even if we do not enter NATO, but we will sign security treaties with the United States, the United Kingdom and other nuclear countries, it can also be considered a victory ". "There are many concepts of victory.
The most radical is the collapse of the Russian Federation, the civil war and the transfer of hostilities to the territory of the Russian Federation," says Focus political technologist Oleg Pasternak. "But this scenario is most unreal, given the development of hostilities. " The second scenario is the complete restoration of the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, including Crimea, Donbass and south of Ukraine.
And the payment of reparations by the Russian Federation, confiscation of property, the international court, the tribunal over military criminals and the leadership of the Russian Federation. "It was this idea that was basic for Ukraine, and most sociologists emphasized that it is the main one for both the authorities and the Ukrainians," he adds. The third is the exit to the borders on the collision line by February 24, 2022. "This scenario was also acceptable, but for a certain part of society.
The power in 2022, at the beginning of 2023, rejected it because it understood that it was not about victory, but about a delayed war. Now this scenario looks like what is possible Consider, "Pasternak continues. The fourth scenario is the freezing of the conflict. "It can also be theoretically considered a victory, because we stop, although temporarily Russia, holding the capital and most of the free Ukraine. We have advanced on European integration.
But there is one serious question - whether joining the EU and NATO, the entry into the Western geopolitical space is justified by the great victims of the Ukrainian people - the question is raised by the political technologist. infrastructure objects, etc. Is it an acceptable price that satisfies a certain part of society? " He notes that there are no answers to these questions.
"While captivity is a reluctance to clearly express the concept of victory, the authorities are now under pressure from circumstances, the authorities do not want to risk the support of society, which it is certainly, despite its actions, corruption and initiative for mobilization. The authorities do not want to lose the remnants of this support. There are several reasons for this, - sums up Oleg Pasternak. - The first is the lack of strategic thinking.
This happens when these fluctuations that were particularly noticeable in 2022: we conducted Istanbul negotiation About a position without end and land. It is not a strategy, but a movement by factors and circumstances that arise in tactical conditions. " And it is impossible to pay attention to the opinion of the military, which are also part of society, and may less involve in sociological research. For them, victory is the revenge of the enemy.
However, the presidential statements now seem that President Zelensky is not so categorical on the issue of returning to the 1991 borders. For example, answering questions about a possible change of this goal during the final press conference, he replied that the strategy cannot be changed, according to the Constitution is all Ukrainian territories. "As for tactics, tactics can be changed after the results of our actions in the south of Ukraine in 2023 are taken into account," he added.
In a recent interview with The Economist, the President no longer sets a time frame and makes promises about how much Ukraine can "deduct" in 2024. His direct task in the Land War will be "to protect the East, to save these very important cities of Ukraine, the East and South, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Nikolaev", and to protect the critical infrastructure of his country.
"In another interview with Western media, Zelensky spoke not only about the territories but also about our people in occupation. And it is important," Kochetkov notes. " The Constitution was about, these people did not expect to occupy the arrival of the army, but sought the options somehow to move to our side, to leave the territory. That is, there was an unseenable promise. It is impossible to make promises to people, especially when it concerns life and death, which is unknown.
recognizes occupation, but in practice it can happen that we cannot free them quickly. We will have to confess that Crimea and part of the East of Ukraine may need to be conquered for a long time and diplomatic way. That is, we will say that we will drink coffee in Crimea in the near future - Incorrect. But the authorities will do as much as they will be power. However, it is clear that because of unjustified expectations, this power may not be chosen again.
" Now you need to focus on the defense and gradual release of the territories. - This is a big plus of Ukrainian diplomacy and power, which was able to correctly set the emphasis and keep the attention of Western society. But as it happens, it is difficult to say in 2024, as circumstances change too quickly. Taiwan elections will significantly affect the layout of the Asia-Pacific region. What will be the results of elections to the European Parliament in the summer - it is difficult to say.
It is possible to strengthen the right parties funded by Russia. Elections in the US will fundamentally affect the situation in Ukraine. "He says that the arrival of Trump will actually mean a change in the foreign policy strategy for the Russian-Ukrainian war. Those who say that Ukraine has already won is very practical, - Alexander Kochetkov also comments. - They have already forgotten that there are existential wars when there is only one to stay.
They usually remember how they waged economic wars. Accordingly, they shot, and then the opportunity appeared - they sat down and began to negotiate. Because shells and equipment are expensive, and even more expensive - insurance for the soldiers killed at the front. They want to negotiate immediately. For them, victory is to agree on time. The absence of hostilities in the West by most politicians is considered a victory.
Here they see that the front line does not move, that is, there is a position war, they say "sit down at the table of negotiations and arrange for the cessation of fighting, bloodshed. " This will be the victory of Ukraine because it resisted the face of a much stronger and more prevailing enemy, has resisted its independence. "But this approach is hardly perceived by Ukrainians. .
Russia seeks destruction of Ukraine due to the destruction of the maximum number of Ukrainians-carriers of all Ukrainian. And any cessation of war with Russia will mean only a delayed aggression. Experts say, theoretically such flexible maneuvering and lavishment in conversation with society about the image of negotiations can be very long long. And above all because society also has no such image, more focused on consumer, material and household things survival.
Existential issues and fear of further actions seriously influences social-public and political views. That is why society is completely blurred today understanding of the image of victory, even despite the results of the polls, there is a certain framework. And the more acute in society will become difficult questions, such as, for example, about mobilization, the more public opinion can change, the more contrast can be a position on territories and preservation of life.
And this aspect will certainly use political forces. This is happening now, analysts say. "It is interesting how the issues of victory will be perceived by some political forces that are opposition to the authorities, whether they will incite some Ukrainians to press on the President Zelensky about the territories," Oleg Pasternak notes. "This is also a certain game that should be understood by society and call Some fears in the current government.
" The expert says that on the one hand, it is important for people to understand when there may be a victory, on the other - the issue of victory has already become political. "This fall, the politician returned to Ukraine and opened the door for discussions. We are discussing the staff, ideological and geopolitical issues again, we discuss on social networks," he continues. "That is: welcome in the new political season.
-which actions related to restrictions will be even more on the rating and authority of power and officials. Everything needs to be discussed now. Ukrainian society is deeply democratic and pluralistic, and sooner or later we will come to some understandable framework when fatigue from the war Whether the fear of mobilization or the pressure of the event will cause fluctuations towards the cessation of hostilities. And this may be a reality in 2024.
" Currently, experts are unanimous that society requires that policies who fight for ratings and popular support are, if not honest and open, politically responsible. They should be able to explain what to adjust in the near future, what security guarantees will receive and how the state plans to try to save the life of every Ukrainian - in the rear and at the front. "Knowledge is a good prevention of depression," says Kochetkov.