Picture Small: The sanctions of the event will lead to Russia to a deep recession - Bloomberg

According to economists, the deprivation of oil and gas producers of modern technologies will be the main blow to the Russian Federation. Economic obstacles will make the Kremlin abandon strategic goals - increasing the population and life expectancy. Russia will face prolonged and deep recession through American and European sanctions, many major sectors of the economy will be at risk. This is stated in a closed report for the Russian government, which was introduced by Bloomberg.

The decline in the economy will accelerate in 2023, and it will return to the pre -war level only at the end of the decade or later. Two of three scripts considered by economists indicate a sharp economic fall. The "inertial" script assumes that next year the economy will fall 8. 3% lower than the level of 2021. The "stress" script sets a minimum in 2024 at 11. 9% below the level of 2023.

The strengthening of sanctions, according to the authors of the report, will hit the following industries: probably more and more countries will join Western sanctions, the document said. Europe's sharp refusal to Russian oil and gas will hit the Kremlin's ability to provide its own market. According to the report, the complete cessation of gas supply to Europe costs Moscow 400 billion rubles a year.

It will not be possible to fully compensate for the losses of new export markets even in the medium term. Russia will be forced to reduce production, so in regions will curtail gas supply programs. Bloomberg sources have called a critical situation the lack of technologies for the production of liquefied natural gas.

Europe plans to stop the import of petroleum products (last year EU share in imports from the Russian Federation was at 55%) can lead to a reduction in production, there will also be no fuel in the domestic market. The decline in production in 2023 will be held in a number of sectors -oriented sectors - from oil and gas to metals, chemicals and wood products. The report states that metal producers lose $ 5. 7 billion a year because of sanctions.

The report warns that if the global economy is in recession, Russia will face further exports, which provokes the fall of ruble and a burst of inflation. According to analysts, short -term risk will be suspended due to lack of imported raw materials and components. In the long run, the impossibility of repairing imported equipment will be restricted by the industry, the interlocutors reported with the report.

"There are simply no alternative suppliers for some of the most important imported goods," the statement said. In the agricultural sector, dependence on key factors of production can force Russians to reduce food consumption and cause stocks. Russia is faced with blockade of almost all modes of transport, so it is more difficult to supply products, Bloomberg reported.

Sanctions will force the Government of the Russian Federation to revise a number of development goals that Vladimir Putin set before the war with Ukraine, including an increase in the population and life expectancy. Restrictions on access to Western technologies will lead to a backlog of Russian standards that exist for several generations, and less advanced alternatives from China and Southeast Asia will not be an alternative, the authors say.

According to experts, the country can leave up to 200 thousand IT professionals by 2025 due to limited access to Western technologies. "The potential growth of the Russian economy should be reduced to 0. 5-1. 0% in the next decade. It will be reduced even more and will fall slightly higher than zero by 2050. Russian economist Alexander Isakov. Recall that the G7 countries have agreed from December 5 to impose restrictions on Russian oil prices.