31,000 Ukrainians and 180,000 Russians: How do real losses in the war count
I planned to write anything about our losses. It is very difficult. Especially when there are personal stories. And more and more. When we count the destroyed Russians, it is statistics. Our is not statistics. For each figure you imagine a person. These are the wounds of loved ones and one big common wound. However, it is necessary to abstract and emphasize a few points, because emotions are harmful and destroyed. I get an idea of the loss since 2014.
I repeat what I repeatedly repeated: no sound loss without a dozen clarifying questions will tell you anything. No secreted figure will be exhaustive. To speak the figure, you need to understand its structure. If you do not know the detailed structure, you should not draw conclusions, call any losses "false", "low/overestimated", etc. Your personal feelings of loss will always be wrong. The main problem is that when voicing losses, different entities operate in numbers with different structure.
Hence different hammers. Many have already understood that there are irreversible and sanitary losses. It is not easy to display an adequate integral figure, there will be distortions. For example, a warrior can be wounded three times and return to the system three times. Open sanitary loss data only describe the situation in general terms. Therefore, any number should be seen as a landmark, not as an absolute-but as a order of numbers.
If there is a need to delve into - be aware of the data structure. With regard to irreversible losses - there are combat (died on the battlefield, captives, missing, dead from wounds at the evacuation stage or in hospital, who lost their ability to serve, etc. ) and non -infants (died of diseases, accidents, suicides, accidents, accidents, accident , withdrawn from a number of servicemen for various reasons, etc. ). That is, not all of them are dead in irreversible losses.
The figures illuminate not only the direct situation on the battlefield, but also: problems with discipline, problems with medical supply and/or at the stage of mobilization, troubles with moral and psychological state, etc. The detailed structure of losses makes it possible to draw conclusions about the impact on combat capability. Therefore, it is closed. I don't know what data covers the number 31,000 dead. Only in battle? All the dead? I can assume, but I don't see meaning.
However, I know that the numbers "70 thousand killed, 120 thousand wounded", which are now compared, are nonsense. The dramatic difference between the figures of Ukrainian losses from Russian is that information is open about the lion's share of our losses. These figures do not pedal, but they are available. There is no censorship (good or bad - another question). The loss of every warrior is pain. With the exception of very special soldiers, family, countrymen, comrades, etc.
can be written about the death of a serviceman. We cannot hide this data. Most of them are monitored by open decrees on awarding posthumously. I saw a number of comments from the series "Here is some independent calculation of our losses, volunteer or some similar. " So it is all.
There are publications that made a collective of "memory of the fallen for Ukraine" (the wall of memory on Mikhailovskaya-they are their work together with the National Museum of Museum of the Ministry of Defense) in November 2023. There are errors (there are always inaccuracies with public data), but the material is very clear. Collected both combat and non -return losses not only of the Armed Forces, but all the forces of defense. The Russians collect all this data and know the numbers.
But they do not accelerate them in a generalized form! (Only in the form of individual emotional stories or photos from cemeteries to dump people). Because the real figures of our losses 1) are at times smaller than Russian; 2) at times smaller than the Russian propaganda throws. That is, the Kremlin is unprofitable to accelerate them. On the contrary, the Russians very often use the reception of "reflection": they attribute to us their losses to confuse, to create a box of numbers.
Summing up all kinds of irreversible losses, including prisoners and missing persons, is about 50-55 thousand people today. I emphasize - this is the maximum number and not all in this amount - the dead. According to the Information Resistance Group, which coincide with the figures of Russian monitoring groups, information about the death of more than 45,000 Russian servicemen is publicly confirmed in Russia itself.
It is killed with a very small proportion of dead from wounds and small splashes of non -infant incidents. That is, 99% are combat irreversible losses. Thus, this is the minimum figure. Absolutely reliable (there are names and all the source data). Without missing. Without prisoners. Without written off as a result of injuries. Without non -adhesive losses. With Crimea, but without (with very rare exceptions) residents of ORDLO. That is, we have 50-55 thousand.
It is a maximum, and they have 45+ thousand. Russia hides the loss, the real number of killed/dead, according to indirect grounds, can be 4 times higher than publicly illuminated. The president named the figure of 180,000 killed Russian soldiers. From what we see by our methods - it may well be a similar figure of killed. The order of the numbers is accurate, but the nuances of accounting can be.
For example, some of the residents of the ORDLO, who have already served in the Russian army, or not only killed Russians, but also dead in the army for various reasons are taken into account. All irreversible losses may be more (especially written off due to serious injuries). Military experts say that Russia is losing war if the loss ratio is 1 to 5. We can make a reasonable assumption that now the ratio of irreversible losses is about 1 to 3. 5/4.
The Russians have more of our captives, but they have disproportionate missing missing (remember at least mobile crematoriums). That is, the situation is difficult, but the opponent is all in tension. The numbers refute the myth of the inability to defeat Russia. We are close to this limit. Therefore, I repeat: unity and concentration of all forces are needed, there is no hopelessness. And weapons.
Delay with deliveries from partners has a very terrible and visual mathematical expression: the ratio of losses will inevitably start. Accordingly, the chance to break the situation will be removed. I am convinced that analysts of the main partners know all these outlines no worse than us and report to their leaders. In view of this, delaying political decisions looks even more disgusting and counterproductive . . . The president noted that in March-April it will be very difficult.