The weak link: do Putin's generals want an end to the war in Ukraine
The analyst investigated whether there are top officers in the Russian army who would not be afraid to speak out against the Kremlin. A growing number of active and retired Russian officers are quietly questioning Vladimir Putin's strategy for Ukraine, arguing that the war is draining human resources, destroying the economy and leading Russia to disaster.
Focus translated the article "Do Putin's generals want an end to the war in Ukraine?" military analyst Robert Johnson for the National Security Journal portal. Johnson sought out officers of the Russian Armed Forces, who have weight in the Russian army, and tried to explain whether they would dare to protest.
Against the background of increasingly open internal dissatisfaction with the rule of Russian President Vladimir Putin and reports of almost barbaric treatment of Russian soldiers on the front lines by commanders, there is growing concern at the highest levels of government about the course of the war in Ukraine. Behind the scenes, there is an opinion that this war must be stopped before it is too late to avoid catastrophic consequences for the Russian state.
Some high-ranking retired Russian military leaders sounded the alarm even before the war began, predicting a disaster for the Russian Armed Forces that did unfold in the years after the February 2022 invasion. Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers' Assembly, made a public statement even before the start of the war.
In his statement, he called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to resign under the threat of removal from power in accordance with constitutional procedures due to a possible invasion of Ukraine. So that no one would doubt the sincerity of his message, 78-year-old Ivashov, after making a public statement, gave an interview to one of the few remaining liberal Russian mass media at the time, the Echo of Moscow radio station.
In the interview, he insisted that he was speaking not only on his own behalf, but also on behalf of the assembly of retired officers and reservists whose interests he represents. Ivashov said that the organization's collective statement was edited and reworked during internal discussions, with some retired military personnel advocating a softer line on Putin. However, others demanded even stricter wording.
In his rather restrained radio interview, Ivashov also explained that acting officers, for obvious reasons, cannot freely express their opinion, and emphasized that he is addressing a small audience of "Echo of Moscow". One of the few Russian radio stations that had the courage to criticize Putin's regime was soon forced to close.
Before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ivashov held the position of senior assistant to the country's defense minister and head of the ministry's general affairs department. He held other high-ranking military posts and commanded troops until his retirement — or, some believe, forced resignation by Putin — in 2001. His duties at that time included numerous negotiations with NATO and the US military.
Since then, Ivashov considers Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine a serious mistake that harms both the internal and external situation around Russia. Given his previous positions, many consider his point of view to be serious and not motivated by political or personal interests. Ivashov predicted that a protracted war would weaken the country's economy and deepen the already imminent demographic crisis.
He warned that Russia would lose friends in the international arena and risk going to war with NATO. His predictions turned out to be brutally accurate. Ivashov consistently accuses Putin of running the risk of "ultimately destroying Russian statehood and exterminating the country's indigenous population.
" He warned that the real danger for Russia is not NATO or the West, but "the unsustainability of the state model, the complete inability and unprofessionalism of the system of power and management, the passivity and disorganization of society. " In such conditions, as he writes, "no country will last long". Although the Kremlin usually ruthlessly suppresses any expression of dissent, Ivashov continues to publicly criticize the invasion.
In December 2024, he delivered a long monologue on UA RUS Online, warning that Putin and his inner circle in the Kremlin may soon suffer the same fate as the regime of deposed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Current Russian generals and other high-ranking officials are reported to be increasingly critical of Putin's policies. Putin appears to be on course for a confrontation with the military command, which is watching its army collapse as a result of such policies.
One of their fears is that Putin is insisting on the same maximalist demands he has made since the first day of the war. Officers are troubled by the lack of any acknowledgment of their mistakes or changes in strategy to adapt to new realities on the battlefield. Despite high casualties and other staggering losses, Putin's main goals remain unchanged. Another point is Putin's unwavering confidence that Russia can still win a war of attrition.
Putin always believes that Russia will be able to survive Ukraine and its Western supporters. In his opinion, extremely high losses are the price that must be paid in the eternal struggle with the West. Since until now the pressure from within the Russian Federation in connection with these losses has been minimal, Putin does not see the need to change anything. Putin has already lost more than one opportunity to reach an agreement with US President Donald Trump and other NATO leaders.
The rejection of talks, including the recent cancellation of a planned summit in Budapest, is also seen as Putin's cold-blooded desire to save face at the cost of thousands of lives a week. Ivashov distinguishes between highly qualified Russian professional soldiers and the so-called military "elite" of the Kremlin. In his opinion, at the head of the latter are nobodies who do not have the slightest idea about military affairs.
As long as such an elite is in power, Russia is moving closer to Ivashov's prediction that the war will end in disaster. The price for this catastrophe will not be paid by Putin's Kremlin soldiers, but by professional officers and tens of thousands of young Russian conscripts who will be killed or maimed in battle. Reuben F. Johnson has been analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technology, and international arms export policy for 36 years.