Recharge - every four days. How often Russia will run rockets in Ukraine
The first blow was December 29, 2023, which is considered one of the largest over the Great War. 30 people were killed in Kiev alone, and in other cities there were also casualties and dozens of wounded. The Air Force (PS) of the Armed Forces noted that on December 29, "actually everything is possible" was flying in Ukraine except for rockets of maritime base "Caliber". In total, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation released 122 winged missiles X-101/X-555/X-55 and 36 drones Shahd.
Ukrainian air defense agents destroyed 27 drones and 87 rockets. "So much red [hostile purposes] on our monitors have not been visible for a very long time," - commented shelling of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces Yuri Ignat. The recurrent attack on Kyiv and the region was January 2, and the residents of Kharkiv were also injured.
The strikes in peaceful cities were made not only by ShahED drones and the X-101/X555/X555/X555/X555/X555/X555/X555/X555/X555/X555 On January 2, the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces and other units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 72 air targets: all missiles X-47M2 "Dagious", 59 of 70 winged missiles X-101/X-555/X-55 and three out of three out of three missiles "Caliber ".
Such frequent combined shelling of peaceful cities with different winged missiles makes you think about the issues of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces: How often will the occupiers make such blows in the near future? The so -called inviolable margin of shells, which is spent as a last resort, has always remained in the Russian army.
All the missiles "under zero" can not be fired, this practice is prescribed in Soviet military standards, explains the focus of the Armed Forces reserve Major, military expert Alexei Hetman. "According to various data, 700-800 missiles lie in warehouses. The Russian MIC produces 70-80 missiles per month.
Considering that in the last 2 months they have produced up to 150 rockets and almost all of them released during two massive attacks, you can say, you can say, that the next powerful blows will be in a long time, "the expert notes. In a massive blow, on January 2, the hetman estimates could be involved in an inviolable stock. For the next attack, the plants of the Russian Federation need to produce about 100 missiles to fill all the stocks.
By logic and standards, Russia can plan a new attack by mid -February. "We need to understand that anything from the Russian army can be expected. In frosty weather, not only military but also energy facilities will be subjected to attacks. Forecasters are predicted in some regions of Ukraine to reduce temperature to -23 degrees.
The enemy will take advantage of the vulnerability of the Ukrainian energy system and the risk of immersion in Blackut will appear again, says the focus of the reserve colonel, the expection of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladislav Seleznev. "All winter is a time of rocket and drone attacks. Given the localization of the production of Iranian drones in Russia, they will be more and more involved," the military comments.
Seleznyov notes that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation prepare a new large-scale attack for up to four days, but according to the standards of 30 years ago, this is allocated a maximum of 16 hours after returning to the air base. Today's reserves of winged rockets in Russians will have enough four massive attacks with a level of level as December 29.
According to Alexei Hetman, if the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are in the near future for all four waves, their army warehouses may not remain winged missiles at all. The coordinator of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko named two scenarios of future massive blows. The first is high-intensity launches with a combined component, but then the military resource of the Russian Federation will be depleted in 4-5 attacks.
"If you use the aviation and maritime components - caliber missiles for blows, pauses between strokes will be 72 hours or more," - says the analyst. The second option is the scenario of May-June 2023, when the strikes were struck by a limited ammunition (BC) from 15 to 30 rockets, but almost every night or once every 2-3 days. With such schedules, Russia can last from 10 to more than 20 beats.
"If they switch to a minimum BC, they will take away the systematic strokes up to one and a half months with a frequency of 48 hours. And do not forget about continuous production," Kovalenko said. We will remind, because of the rocket strike of the invaders on January 2 in the Solomenskiy district of Kiev, seven apartments were completely burned out. About 200 residents of the area have been asking for social assistance.