Drones instead of "green men": whether Putin's attack on Poland is duplicated by the Crimean scenario
During a joint briefing with Finland President, Alexander Stubb in Kiev on Thursday, September 11, Volodymyr Zelenskyy launched a clear and unambiguous parallel between a loud history with a raid of Russian UAVs to Poland and annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
In particular, the head of state, having previously stated that the invasion of Russian drones into Poland through the territory of Ukraine and Belarus is "exactly not accidental", added: "In my opinion, the worst thing is that this attack (on Poland - focus) is similar to Crimea. The role in Poland was played by Russian -made drones.
" Having emphasized that the most dangerous is when someone, for example, the United States, as we had with Crimea, "or other partners, signals that" the main thing is not to bring to war ", the President noted:" So for me it is all very similar to Crimea, and I think it is like a "rehearsal. " Poland, which at one time "presented" the Soviet Union.
In addition, Zelensky suggested that one of the tasks of provocation with Russian UAVs over Poland was to slow down the supply of air defense products to Ukraine. "Russia wanted to see what would be ready for NATO, what they were ready for. They see what is ready physically - whether partners are ready for such an attack. Third - in my opinion, they could also do it so that partners did not convey the air defense systems to Ukraine before winter. Bank.
The statement of the President of Zelensky on the similarity of the steps of the Russian Federation during the annexation of Crimea and the drone attack on Poland is a kind of warning, says political scientist Vladimir Fesenko. In particular, in the conversation with the focus, the expert noted the following: "The parallels in this case are quite appropriate, only, as Zelensky noted, the difference is that there were" green men "in the arcs, and here are already drones.
invasion of Poland, but it is a very, very serious warning. " Answering the question of what Putin's further steps may be, taking into account NATO and the USA regarding the incident in Poland, the political scientist stated: "Steps may actually be different, but I think that the Crimean scenario may appear against the Baltic countries. Hybrid War. The attacks may no longer be "Herbers", but by combat "shamed", which will be deliberately flying to Rzeszow or some other military objects.
In the belief of Vladimir Fesenko, the lack of adequate reaction from the United States to the provocation of the Russian Federation in Poland can eventually "ignite" Putin: "The thing is that he (the head of the Kremlin - focus) is influenced only by restraining reaction from the United States. Extremely rigid warnings.
The widespread use of air defense tools plus the deepening of the cooperation of Kyiv and Warsaw in the field of air defense, the expert says, is extremely promising, although now a "foggy" moment. "So far, we are talking about Ukrainian-Polish exercises, but in fact I think, there is a joint construction of air defense, so that some of the Polish air defense worked in our territory. It would be an extremely serious and important step.
However, unfortunately, at the moment, it is not ready in Poland or NATO. " At the same time, the leading expert of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Ivan is in conversation with focus: "Russia is currently actively looking for a red line, after which NATO will not speak, but act. You know, in English NATO is north atlantic Treaty organization. "Treaty" replace with "timid", that is, frightening, cowardly.
" In the opinion of the analyst, Russia is trying to demonstrate the world today that NATO is "it is not about power, but about impotence. " "And here can be a threat to all countries in this block, since drones in Poland - this is a test for a systemic reaction.
Poland, and then I do not exclude that they will send them to other countries, such as Finland, where 1273 kilometers of the land border from the Russian Federation may try to "get" in the Baltic States, but in the end it can fly to Germany, "Ivan Us said. At the same time, the expert does not exclude the activation of the Russians in the near future: "I think of joint training of Russia of Belarus.
And I am afraid that due to the lack of adequate response to provocation in Poland, the next series did not take place in the Suvoral corridor, not far from the other. The events will develop further. " Stating that after the Second World War, Europe translated the function of ensuring its safety to American shoulders, Ivan still said: "Unfortunately, I have no feeling that even Germany, like the first EU economy, is ready to meet Russia somehow.
No, the Germans, like other European countries, are trying to avoid direct collisions in every possible way. Instead, the United States, despite the current unwillingness for decisive anti-Russian steps, assumes an expert, can still be surprised: "Trump is a surprise man and if Washington now demonstrates inaction, it does not mean that we will not have seen in Iran recently. " Summarizing, Ivan said that Donald Trump could eventually turn on the "hard hand" option relative to the Kremlin.
But this will happen, the expert, not because of great love or empathy of the White House Head to Ukraine and European countries, but given the fall of personal electoral ratings within the United States. In this context, the analyst does not exclude the likelihood of a US power response: "One observer is very good in this regard that Trump can resort to a" duck house ". It is a hint of Medvedev's house. That is, Putin will not attack the Americans.