Trump will come - Patriot will take away: what will happen with the air defense of Ukraine after January 2025
The Ukrainian Air Force has launched six Patriot batteries worth $ 1 billion for difficult ambushes aimed at Russian military aircraft, as well as to protect Ukrainian cities from the best Russian rockets "Iskander" and "Dagger". But with the supply of Patriot batteries, there were problems, so Kiev should be prepared for the worse.
US President Donald Trump, whose inauguration will take place in January, said that the Russians would do "everything they want" in NATO European countries that do not pay their share for their own defense. Trump's chosen cabinet members mostly oppose the US further assistance to Ukraine.
It is ominously that Trump invited a billionaire Ilona Mask, the main donor of Trump and the famous adversary of American assistance to Ukraine, to join him during a telephone conversation with President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky after the elections. If Trump is expected to stop US assistance to Ukraine, the Ukrainian Air Force may end with Patriot missiles very quickly.
Given industrial and political restrictions, Ukraine has a very small stock of Patriot missiles and uses them almost as quickly as it receives. Raytheon in the United States produces a majority of approximately 500 Patriot missiles that are produced annually. Japanese and European firms create additional capacity for licensed rockets that should increase production to 1,000 shells per year up to 2027.
None of the Patriot plants can legally export missiles to Ukraine without the permission of the US government. By abandoning this license, the Trump administration can strangle the best air defense means of Ukraine, making the country even more vulnerable than it is, before the threat of continuous Russian bombardment. Kiev needs a reserve air defense plan in case the Patriot missiles stop supplying after January.
And this spare plan should not depend on any other rocket system of American production-or even mainly American production-such as Hawk or Nasams. Ukraine should turn to Europe - and expect great difficulties. There is only one European anti-aircraft missile complex that is more or less suited to Patriot and creators of which can, by making some efforts, bypass US export restrictions: Sol-Air Moyenne Portée/Terrestre, or SAMP/T, $ 500 million, Franco's product -itali Consortium Eurosam.
Ukraine already has one SAMP/T battery and another one on the approach, and it will need five more to replace its Patriot - plus additional specimens, if you have to replace other American production systems. But there is a problem. No matter how limited the Patriot batteries and missiles were limited, SAMP/T Supplies and their Aster missiles are even more limited.
Italy has three SAMP/T batteries and ordered 10 more batteries built according to an advanced standard in September; France has eight old SAMP/t and ordered eight upgraded batteries in September. The French are expecting the first new battery for two years. No matter how slowly they leave the conveyor, SAMP/T can become the only hope of Ukraine for sustainable protection against Russian military aircraft and missiles. However, Eurosam will have to work.
Although the consortium represents SAMP/T as a solution in air defense for countries that hope for autonomy in defense decision -making, it is likely that SAMP/T includes some details of American production - and they will fall under US export control. Western weapons, which are not covered by US rules of international trade in weapons (ITAR), rarely happens: SAMP/T is not. To transfer SAMP/t to Ukraine without the US consent, Eurosam will have to replace all ITAR components with non -American.
There is every reason to believe that the consortium will make every effort. France earlier stated that she "deified" other weapons, the winged missile of Scalp (she is the Storm Shadow in the hands of the British) to sell it Egypt, despite the denial of the United States.
France also proposed to sell Indonesia a frigate armed with the same Aster missiles as SAMP/T, with a guarantee that the whole ship will be free from Itar: that is, it becomes clear that France considers Aster missile systems free from ITAR. In the end, air defense in the Trump era can be a European problem in the same way as Ukrainian.