The miracle without weapons did not work. Why does the event need to help Ukraine truly
All this speculative discussion of the summer-autumn campaign of defense forces, current affairs at the front and in the rear, all political-emotional and simply emotional showdowns in Ukraine, most of the Western analytics now is an attempt to find a rational explanation why there was no miracle. Well, that is, why seeing the "leopards", the Russian army did not run away from the Ural Ridge. Analyze why the miracles did not happen, and at the same time not to look in the mirror.
The reality is that the miscalculations did all. From our dear "masters of managed escalation" Biden and Sullivan, European officials and other partners who were mistaken both in expectations and in the amount of resources they need. And to our politicians and military at different levels. These mistakes are mostly natural. For the most part, they are dictated by the uncertainty, lack of data and cognitive distortions.
For example, the striking inefficiency of the Russians in 2022 and its extrapolation, in particular on their defensive capabilities. That is, all mistakes can be explained logically, recognized, reflected and go with it. Take into account and spend the next year differently. Yes, it is likely that it will be. But there is a proverb "many parents in victory, and the defeat is always an orphan. " Because the audience (collective) in Ukraine, Europe and the United States requires explanations.
Because political competitors and simply critics require clarity. Because the political struggle rages forever. Therefore, of course, the srach was inevitable. Speeches of varying degrees of adequacy from fan clubs of politicians and military (here and abroad)-too. The only question is that against the background of this information Fufl and the search for who to be recognized as responsible, in particular, real work on mistakes was carried out.
The intention of approaching fortification is more careful, according to conversations in the West that they did not add weapons to Ukraine, for discussing problems - there is hope for positive shifts. And on the fact that the conclusions will be drawn. Again, you do not need to think that 100% idiots or objective problems will be corrected. It never happens anywhere and nothing. And the higher the level of tension and dynamics - the more errors will be inevitable.
And the main conclusion of this is the following: we need more modern weapons, and for that Western politicians and the military should stop believing in a miracle. In the miracle where Ukraine wins the current technological level of support. The Defense Forces of Ukraine cannot produce at least a parity in the air and destroy Russian logistics on the far approaches to the front line. And without the first and second to win this war will be extremely expensive and long.
So yes, we can find out for a long time how bad Zelensky is and where Zaluzhny is mistaken. But the truth is that the way the war will continue to develop is much more dependent on the political will of our partners. Korean will be a script, completely victorious or something else. Ukraine needs more weapons. And the fact that our partners are talking about it - I have a careful optimism on this issue.