"Putin needs all Ukraine." Will Russia end the war without Soviet weapons
The stunning losses of tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery in Ukraine are filled only at the expense of conservation of Soviet reserves, writes the British magazine The Economist. Of course, Moscow inherited from the USSR huge, but not endless arms reserves. Western intelligence services found that in the first two years of the Great War, the Russian army lost about 3,000 tanks and 5,000 other armored vehicles. The current production of new tanks does not exceed 30 pieces per year.
Soviet leaders knew that Western weapons were much more technologically and chose a mass approach. Before the collapse in the USSR, there were as many armored vehicles as in other countries combined, evaluating the level of military reserves of the Russian Federation analyst of the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies Alexander Goltz. Problems with the supply of components undermine the ability of the Russian MPC to produce combat vehicles.
Fuel heaters for diesel engines, high -voltage electrical systems and infrared thermal imagers have been imported from Europe, and now sales are blocked by sanctions. The absence of high quality ball bearings will not cover Chinese alternatives. The "critical point of exhaustion" of the Russian Security Service of Russia will come to the second half of 2025, forecasting analysts. Another important problem is the production of trunks for artillery.
North Korea supplies ammunition, the invaders exceed the Armed Forces in the frequency of firing at least 5: 1, but this regime leads to increased wear of the Haubitsa barrel. Some of the artillery specimens are changed after a few months of hot spots. Only two plants in Russia have complex Austrian rotary forging rotary machines for the production of barrels. Each produces a maximum of 100 products a year, and the war requires thousands.
The Russian Federation has never produced its own forging machines, equipment was imported from the United States in the 1930s and exported from Germany after the Second World War. If the current level of military production is preserved, by the end of 2024 the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will go into the defense regime of combat. The interest of Russian President Vladimir Putin will increase in the West.
However, when analyzing the capabilities of the MIC of the enemy, experts did not take into account other factors. First of all, it is about the arsenal of export deliveries of dual -use goods from China, direct military technologies from the DPRK and Iran and Belarus. By the way, the Belarusian plants are actively modernizing and repairing Soviet equipment, damaged in battles tanks, armored vehicles and artillery.
The amount of new weapons and equipment at the disposal of the Russian army is classified. Numerous ways of replenishment of military resources, discovered by Russia since the early 2000s and developed after 2014, produce stable results. According to a military expert, the former spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladislav Seleznev, Russian agents are looking for influence in different countries, including Africa, Soviet weapons.
Moscow bought out the previously sold equipment and weapons. The most capable specimens of armored vehicles and artillery are immediately sent to hot spots. As part of the unfit after combat collisions, the technician comes to repair. "The underestimation of the enemy's capabilities distorts the real situation on the battlefield and forecasts.
The event must be worked on increasing the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces, supplying quality artillery systems, missiles, aviation, ammunition and more," he explains Focus. Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to stop the war through ceasefire negotiations, taking into account the current front line, five Russian sources of Reuters reported. If Kiev and the West do not react, battles will continue.
The Russian leader expressed a small group of advisers of disappointment through "attempts by the West to disrupt peace talks" and the decision of President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky to exclude their opportunity. Russia can fight as needed: the appointment of economist Andrei Belousov to the post of Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, some Western experts have regarded as the transfer of the economy to a regime of constant war in order to win a protracted conflict.
The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov at the same time says that his country "does not want eternal war". Putin also knows the consequences of cardinal success in Ukraine. A new wave of mobilization will be required, which he does not want to carry out. One of the interlocutors stated the fall in the popularity of the Russian President after the first mobilization in September 2022. Peskov stated that the Russian Federation is sufficient to the armed forces of volunteers.
Vladislav Seleznyov emphasizes that it is not necessary to count on Putin's weakness. The aggressor seeks to capture much more Ukrainian territory than the eastern and southern regions. Russia always plays long: the war on exhaustion is part of the enemy's strategic plans. "The miracle will not happen. Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, South and East - only the beginning of the Russian path.
In the Kremlin, they dream of control throughout the territory of Ukraine, except for the western regions," - says military analyst. The prospect of ceasefire and the beginning of peace talks, according to analysts, is unlikely. Zelensky often declared the impossibility of achieving peace on Putin and promised to return all territories of Ukraine as of 1991. At the end of September 2022, he signed a decree that recognizes any negotiations with the head of the Russian Federation.