The chances for the hryvnia. As the exchange rate changed for two years of war and that saved the currency market from collapse
32 hryvnias per dollar. That is, in two years the national currency was devalued by 36. 3%. Focus explored how the hryvnia exchange rate has changed over two years of war and what factors affect it now. The most important document approved by the National Bank in time, experts call the Resolution No. 18 of February 24, 2022 "On the work of the banking system during the introduction of martial law".
We will remind, in this document of the NBU: timely decisions of the National Bank helped prevent mass withdrawal from accounts, and also stopped panic, which could arise in the foreign exchange market and would inevitably lead to a catastrophic fall of the hryvnia. Thanks to Resolution No. 188, which later the National Bank repeatedly supplemented and changed, the crisis consequences were avoided.
"In any crisis situations (and a full-scale war is not even a crisis, but a" state of survival ") the economy is on the verge, and the demand for currency increases at times. And any restrictions only stimulate it. not only timely but also strategically important.
Setting the official exchange rate, reviewing the discount rate (increasing it up to 25%), introducing currency restrictions on the cash market, restrictions on currency transfers and payment of business currency obligations have become necessary and forced steps, which, on the one hand, stopped the fall of the hryvnia (say, detained it), and on the other - retained most of the existing currency in Ukraine within the country, " - explained in the commentary of the focus Taras Lesovy, Head of the Treasury Department Globe Bank.
For a long time, the calculations on the interbank bank were held at the NBU fixed rate - from February 24, 2022 to July 21, 2022, the course was at 29. 25 UAH. for a dollar, and from July 21, 2022 - 36. 6 UAH per dollar. "The new level of course will become an anchor for the economy and give it stability under conditions of uncertainty.
Continuation of fixed course policies will allow the National Bank to maintain control over the dynamics conditions of war, " - said then the head of the NBU Kirill Shevchenko. In the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, a fixed exchange rate existed until October 2023 - until the National Bank introduced the regime of a flexible course in resolution No. 121 of October 2, 2023. "Prolonged fixation of the exchange rate would lead to the accumulation of risks to the economy and the financial system.
Given the unprecedented uncertainty at the beginning of a full -scale war, the introduction of such a regime made it The Ukrainian experience, as well as many other countries, is optimal only in a limited time period. Over time, it loses its effectiveness, leads to the accumulation of currency risks, increased micro- and macroeconomic imbalances.
All this can weaken the economy and financial system now and now to complicate the restoration of business activity at the stage of reconstruction of Ukraine, " - reported at the NBU. Important to stabilize the cash market were the decision to expand the purchase of non -cash currency by the population with the deposit placement "for the foreign exchange market Main event, of course - the refusal of a fixed exchange rate in favor of the managed flexibility regime.
It was not a panacea into the market. I understand that many Ukrainians are much more comfortable to live in a fixed course mode, although it has never been so in a cash market. The stabilization of the cash market was the decision to expand the purchase of non-cash currency by the population with the placement on the deposit and the launch of direct online purchase of currency by Ukrainians in the non-cash market.
These decisions significantly limited the fluctuations in the cash segment, "Anna's departments were important for the exchange rate. Treasury operations Unex Bank. The "managed flexibility" regime returned free course formation to the interbank and in fact in course policy reorient the cash market to the interbank market, experts say.
"In addition, the market gradually became ready for the abolition of the fixed course, and the regulator approved the further vector for" rapprochement "of non -cash and cash courses," said Taras Lesovy.
He believes that among the important for the foreign exchange market decisions - also the introduction of "conversion deposits", which significantly weakened the pressure of demand (citizens who intended to buy currency, were given the opportunity to buy it at a fixed rate, but with mandatory placement on deposits from 3 months). The expert says the next important step is the permission to make business payments on credit liabilities (this decision is still expected).
The ability of the currency market to work with greater autonomy and not depend so much on the NBU interventions - one of the prerequisites for further currency liberalization, Sergei Kucherryvy, Director of the Department of Liquidity Control and Securities Kredobank, believes that the most important factors that influenced the hryvnia for two years. - There were international financial assistance and actions of the NBU to stabilize and smooth fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.
In particular, the expert noted: in general, the National Bank in 2024 prepares a weakening of restrictions in the foreign exchange market, which was recently stated by NBU Chairman Andriy Pishny. However, he says, for further liberalization, the preconditions are important. "In fact, the ability of the currency market to work with greater autonomy, not so much dependent on the NBU interventions.
This is the first condition for which you need to increase export potential, weaken the pressure of import on a trade balance. On the other hand, much depends on the receipt of financial assistance to Ukraine from Western partners. It was these funds in the last year and a half that helped keep the course relatively stable and even increase gold and foreign exchange reserves, "Anna Zolotko said.
Recently, the hryvnia has not been strengthened, although any unpredictable situations in the foreign exchange market in February 2024 and has not been recorded. According to Sergei Kucherryav, in February one of the factors of increasing the course was to reduce the receipt of assistance from partners and more pragmatic behavior of the NBU against the background of reducing the proposal from exporters.
Experts noted that the first two decades of February became one of the least active periods for the Verkhovna Rada from the beginning of the war-the average daily bidding fell to $ 110 million, which is $ 40-50 million less than normal. "Demand has declined significantly, and supply, in particular by the agricultural producers, which is preparing for sowing, increased on the contrary.
Therefore, the volume of NBU interventions, for example, during the second week of February, fell to a minimum - $ 201 million. In some days, the NBU currency interventions were only 25-30% of the total bidding. Moreover, the regulator even had to enter the market with the purchase of situational excess currency, ”Anna Zolotko said. If the safety situation improves, you can also expect to weaken the demand for currency by the population for March, the exchange rate forecasts are very careful.
According to Sergiy Kuchervyav, in March, currency will influence the amount of financial assistance from partner countries, the sale of currency by exporters, which are limited by logistics problems, and the behavior of the regulator. And according to Anna Zolotko, at the end of February and early March, it is necessary to revive the currency supply, especially by agricultural producers who need free hryvnia liquidity for sowing.
"If the security situation improves, we can also expect to weaken demand for currency by the population. At the same time, you should expect to increase currency demand from importers, although this factor also depends largely on the overall assessment of the situation by society, since it is most It presses on consumer demand, ”the expert said. One of the most important factors in influencing the course is the macro -financial assistance that Ukraine receives from the West.