A breakthrough between Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka: what did the Russian troops reached and where they will go on
In connection with the exacerbated situation, today we consider the adjacent flank of the Toretsky and Pokrovsky directions, where the enemy managed to achieve a tactical breakthrough in the defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In fact, it is about Konstantinovsky (also called South Konstantinovsky) direction, which I at one time offered, on my own initiative, I confess-a little self-confident, to allocate in a separate, in March this year.
Assuming the activation of the enemy then (implied by intensive offensive actions) in the spring and summer period on the adjacent flank of his troops (UV) "Center" and "Yug" . . . In the last 2 weeks, introducing into the battle the main forces of the 20th MSD. Defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the fields of Vozdvizhenko-Malynivka and Baranivka-Novoalenivka and wedged in the defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a depth of 5-5. 4 km and up to 9. 5-9. 7 km on the front.
The enemy has seized a number of settlements in this direction and released to the border of Novoalenivka - Oleksandropol, as well as the Malinivka - Nova Poltavka border, in fact taking under the full control the section of the Pokrovsk - Bakhmut road at the Malinivka - Novoleenivka section. At this point, the command of the 8th name of the enemy is clearly trying to increase its efforts in this direction.
Its advanced units are actively attacking along the Pokrovsk-Bakhmut route in the direction of Novoalenivka-Stepanivka, as well as Oleksandropol-Yablunivka (actually trying to break through to the nearby approaches to Konstantinovka from the southwest).
In addition, part of the forces of the 20th MSD (and quite possibly the 51st they) are intensively attacked in the directions of Malynivka-a new economic and Nova Poltava-Poltava, trying to expand their tactical inquiry in the direction of Mirnograd. It is impossible to say that the enemy in the area of his injection is all cloudless, but his tactical success is obvious.
Due to the large number of infantry, as well as the ability to constantly replenish the advanced parts and units that suffer significant losses, the personnel, the enemy, the enemy still manages to maintain a very high level of intensity of their attacking/assault.
In this regard, it is worth noting the fact that on the left flank of this injection of the Armed Forces continue to keep Elizabeth and adjacent to this settlement of the area of the area, which can not but affect the actions of the enemy.
If the enemy is not able to reliably fix itself in Malynivka and Nova Poltava (and his advanced units are now leading for the sake of stubborn battles), then the maintenance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Elizabeth will clearly preserve the Ukrainian troops with the opportunity to carry out effective counter -attacks on the flank of the enemy.
As far as I understand, it is in the attacks in the area of Malinivka that the Russian command sees a way to "neutralize" this flank threat to its breakthrough, from Elizabeth. I think that the calculation here is simple - if the Russian units manage to move for Malynivka, towards the new economic, then it is obvious that the Armed Forces will be forced to retreat from Elizabeth to Mirolyubivka under the threat of their environment. And so this "threat" will be eliminated for the enemy.
That is why now in the area of Malynivka and New Poltava there are stubborn and fierce battles. This is, in fact, the question of the tactical stability of the entire Russian breakthrough on the road Pokrovsk - Bakhmut, in the area between Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka. In my opinion, it depends directly on the answers to the two main questions: if the answer to the first question becomes clear from the previous point of view, then the second requires some additional explanations.
Based on possible (probable) tasks, rather an operative-tactical nature, not just tactical, which hostile command puts before the troops of his 8th name in reality, and it is worth evaluating his further actions. If it means rapid advancement from the southwest and the west to the nearby approaches to Konstantinovka, it is one "script", but if the breakthrough towards Pokrovsk from the New Economic and Mirnograd is in mind, it is a completely different story.
So far, nothing is unambiguous, except for a couple of already obvious nuances. Because the enemy is quite actively attacking "at the top" of his inquiry on both sides. And these nuances are as follows: so, I think, in the near future, the real "orientation" of this Russian offensive will become quite clear . . . Although in favor of each of these options there is both certain information and certain considerations.
For example, there is information that both divisions of the 8th Motorized Rifle Division (20th and 150th MSD, or at least one of them-20 MSDs) can be joined by the Center (which in itself testifies to the "variant" of the breakthrough to Mirnograd and further to Pokrovsk from the East).
At the same time, there are fully reasonable considerations on the preparation of the Russian command of the "general summer offensive" in the direction of Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration (and for the enemy it means that he now needs to break in the direction of Konstantinovka). In general, to draw conclusions of an operative-tactical nature on the basis of this breakthrough is clearly too early.