Putin is recruiting 180,000 people in the Armed Forces, but will not be able to provide them - Business Insider
If its instruction is fulfilled, the total number of Russian servicemen will increase to 2. 38 million people, of which 1. 5 million are current servicemen. Business Insider writes about it. Due to this increase, the Russian army will become the second largest in the world after China's army and the number of Russian soldiers will exceed the number of armies of the US and India.
However, experts reported BI that such a huge number of servicemen are difficult to provide resources and this will harm the economy of Russia. On Monday, September 16, Putin ordered the army to increase by 180,000 in accordance with a decree published by the Kremlin. This is not the first time Putin has been trying to increase the army since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
In August 2022, the Russian leader ordered the increase in the number of troops by 137,000 people, and in December 2023 - by 170,000 people. Nick Reynolds, a researcher at the Royal Institute of Joint Defense Research, said that growth is consistent with Russia's continuing planning. In February, Reynolds suggested that 2025 would be a year decisive for Russia.
Russia believes that it will be able to withstand the current losses of troops and equipment by 2025, believing that "victory should be achieved by 2026. " Victory is possible if the Allies of Ukraine cease to support it, but judging by the losses, after 2026 in Russia will end with existing stocks of tanks and combat armored vehicles, and it will have to rely on the production of new ones.
There will be a lot of new equipment, Reinolds considers, but still less than the Russian Federation has now. It raises the question of how Russia can provide resources to its even larger army, if it is already exhausted. "Where will the resources come from? According to him, it is also difficult to understand how the existing training system can ensure the expansion of the Russian army.
The increase in the number of the army occurs at a dangerous time for Russia, which has to look for a balance between its military goals in Ukraine and the harm that the war causes its economy. According to experts, Russia has been "adapted much better than predicted", but inflation goes crazy, as is the cost of living of the average Russian. Other experts have stated that the economy of the Russian Federation would be less harmful if the recruitment is carried out in the army.
"Currently, recruits can be divided into two groups: people with debts and low socio-economic status and convicted. They either work in less productive sectors of the economy or do not participate in the labor market at all,"-said Artem Kochev, economist of the Vienna Institute of International Economic Economic research. Russia gained so many prisoners to war that it began to close some of its prisons. In July, Russian media reported that recruits in Moscow would receive a prize of 1.
9 million rubles (about $ 22,000) if they sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense of Russia. This package can be compared to the bonuses offered by the US military to their recruits, ranging from $ 20,000 to $ 50,000. And even if money was not a problem, it would still be difficult for Russia to achieve its goals for recruitment without harming your own economy.
"The release of another 180,000 labor will have a serious impact on the economy," Benjamin Hilgenstok, a senior economist at the Institute of the Kiev School of Economics, said. In his view, the Russian labor market already has extraordinary tensions: the unemployment rate has decreased to 2. 4% in June, which in fact corresponds to full employment, and the nominal wage growth is currently exceeding 15% in annual calculation.
The need for recruits forced Russia to turn to an unexpected source - African migrants and students. In June, Bloomberg reported that the Russian authorities had threatened not to continue their visas to African workers and students if they did not join the ranks of the Armed Forces of Russia. Jeremy Morris, Professor of Global Research at the University of Army, believes that economic collapse in the Russian Federation can happen at any time.
"Authoritarian societies such as Russia seem calm and controlled, but destabilization can happen quite suddenly," he said. We will remind, earlier Focus wrote that in the future for Russia, probably awaits the difficulties with the production and purchase of the means necessary for military operations in Ukraine. The Kremlin's dependence on foreign partners is likely to increase.