Istanbul-3 or Minsk-3-that showed and hidden negotiations of Ukraine and Russia in Turkey

“I am very grateful to the guys for this job. Our representatives, who were in Turkey at a meeting with the Russians, have already offered the Russian side a real ceasefire, immediate and complete. They suggested a meeting of leaders to really make a decision for peace. Ukraine is ready to work as quickly as possible, ”the head of state summarized.

At the same time, the representative of the State Department of the State Department Tommy Phogott during a briefing on July 25 stressed that the United States urged Ukraine and Russia to continue direct negotiations for the full ceasefire and peaceful settlement. "I can assure that we continue to promote direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia," the State Department spokesman added.    Recent negotiations in Istanbul are actively analyzing influential foreign media.

Many observers state that significant progress has not been achieved, they hope that this can happen in the near future. “Despite the absence of a breakthrough, the last round of negotiations in Istanbul still gave hints to progress. Instead, CNN emphasizes: "Meeting in Istanbul took place a few days after US President Donald Trump gave Moscow a 50-day period to conclude peace, otherwise she is threatened with" very tough duties.

" Putin has not publicly recognized Trump's ultimatum, and Moscow continues to fire Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles, while its land troops are being promoted in the East. In addition to Trump's threats to impose new sanctions against Russia and other countries that buy Russian oil, the United States has also entered into an agreement on the supply of new weapons to Kiev through European allies.

These steps are noticeably different from the previous approach of the US leader to conflict resolution. However, it is still unclear whether Trump's latest decisions will affect Moscow's position in terms of her readiness for peaceful settlement. " Chinese State Inform The Xinhua Agency, commenting on Istanbul-3, emphasizes: “After a short third round of negotiations in Istanbul, hopes for ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remain, which is not surprisingly, as fragile as before.

None of the parties indicate a breakthrough. However, there is a rare flash of progress: the agreement on another exchange of prisoners, which is first included and civilians. In addition to the next exchange of prisoners, both sides have made other efforts in the slow promotion of peace, but they are not disclosed yet.

" At the same time, the influential Turkish edition of Daily Sabah notes the following: “From the very beginning, Turkey played a key mediation role, organizing the first negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in 2022. Tripartite negotiations have resumed this year thanks to the diplomatic impulse provided by US and Turkey presidents who maintained direct connection with both Putin and Zelensky.

Currently, the military deaf is stored: Russia holds about 20% of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of Donbass. Meanwhile, both sides in non -public conversations express a careful readiness for subject peace talks, taking into account a deadlock stored on the battlefield and increasing economic tension. "  Istanbul-3, according to the political scientist, candidate of political sciences Alexei Buryachenko, is fundamentally different from the previous two.

Argumenting his assessment in conversation with focus, the expert emphasized: “The first two rounds of Istanbul negotiations were initiated by Putin and him, as well as Russian propaganda as a continuation of negotiations in Istanbul in 2022, where the key accent is the actual surrender of Ukraine. Now the situation has changed and the point of change has become a recent conversation with Trump and Putin - very unsuccessful for the Kremlin head.

As a result, while Trump was in no hurry to talk about the need for another round in Istanbul, the Russian side in her statements constantly emphasized on this topic, stating the importance of this site. That is, Istanbul negotiations have always been and remain part of the hybrid strategy of the Russian Federation. But now we really see a certain modification in the results.

"  The results, in the opinion of the political scientist, is due to the fact that within Istanbul-3, Russia should, first of all, give a political signal to the United States on the readiness not only for exchanges, but also for two things: “The first moment is a shift from the place of the question Cease-fire, the second-the beginning of synchronization of peaceful memorandum.

It is clear that in these two directions the Russians are engaged in absolute imitation, but at the same time I would have noted in this context that the Russian Federation suggested to create three working groups. This means that Russia wants to go into the stage of Istanbul's transformation into "Minsk", where there were also many groups that were endlessly gathering and discussing something.

" An interesting point, "which absolutely everyone has bypassed," says Alexei Buryachenko, is the proposal of the Russians to move in the further negotiations in online format. “This initiative indicates that the Russian side does not want to be dependent on Americans and Ukrainians regarding the next Istanbul tours of negotiations.

With such a scenario, they can at any time they can say that, they say, their working groups in the field of forehead make some decisions, and the issues of next Istanbul will not be as critical to them as it was now. The Russians were very scared that the third round may not be, but now, as they say, they exhaled with great relief, ”the political scientist emphasizes.

  In general, according to Alexei Buryachenko, as long as the Istanbul peace-conical process is prolonged, "it is easier for the American side to keep a controlled level of escalation. "  “It is clear to everyone that Putin will continue to fight, despite everything. However, while at least such a simulation process is ongoing, it will still be easier for Americans and Europeans to be fired at the shelling of peaceful Ukrainian cities. This is, first.

Secondly, there is a very practical component, and we are interested in both our partners are time to establish a financial and logistics mechanism for the transfer of American weapons at European expense to Ukraine. Until the point above the "and" in this matter, it is not fully arranged and it takes some time, " - the expert notes.

In a dry residue, the political scientist believes, as a result of Istanbul-3, Ukraine dragged the initiative on itself by proposing a meeting of Zelensky and Putin in August, the Russian Federation-prolonged further negotiations, avoiding sanctions, and Europeans and Americans received time to agree with each other.

  The direct contact of the leaders of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, on which Kiev insists, could give a significant impetus to the peaceful process, however, Alexei Buryachenko states, Putin will avoid such a "very uncomfortable meeting" in every possible way.

     Having stated that the positions of Kyiv and Moscow on the establishment of peace are absolutely multi -polar, political scientist, candidate of political sciences Stanislav Zelikhovsky in conversation with focus, said: “Despite enough optimistic notes in Western media, I personally would not hope for any progress in the process of peaceful settlement.

That is, Moscow continues to insist on its maximalist requirements, which do not fit that in the legal field - within the boundaries of common sense. " The Kremlin's insidious game is considered by an expert voiced within Istanbul-3 of the Russian Federation for further contacts of delegations in online format: “The Russian side says that this idea is dictated by the motives of savings so that they say that not fly to Turkey every time. But in reality the thing is not about it.

I think it all means to nullify significant progress in the coming weeks-monthly. That is, Moscow is predicted time. "  As for Vladimir Zelensky's likely meeting with Putin, the political scientist considers it unrealistic in the near future.   Currently, Stanislav Zelikhovsky is convinced, there is a big question as to whether the Istanbul format will go beyond humanitarian topics.