How can the Russian Federation with NATO and what are the chances of the parties: the forecast of the Telegraph (infographic)

The expert indicated that the Russian economy is only about 10% of the size of the EU economy, which is approximately 85% of the economy of Italy, and the Russian population is less than in Germany and France combined. In addition, the Russians failed to win in Ukraine, which at the time of a full-scale invasion was the 53rd largest economy in the world.

Liliko also mentioned the "law of the square" developed during the First World War, which shows that if one side is numerous but less effective, then victory is necessary that the ratio of effective benefits of the smaller army is greater than the square of the ratio . For example, if one warning force has 10% less troops, then to win the war for exhaustion of its troops should be more than 21% more effective.

Based on this formula, the economist concluded that the Russian Federation will need to double either triple the number of troops, or approximately double, or triple military expenditures against GDP to confront the EU. Liliko noted that the doubling of military expenditures on GDP will lead to Russia to the indicator of 12-15 percent, characteristic of the late USSR. He stressed that it was an indicator that followed the collapse of the Soviet economy in the 1980s.

A three -time increase in costs will have more devastating consequences. "Russia can get up in a pose, threaten or even invade the boundaries of its little and poor neighbors. But mathematics says that when it comes to the EU threat, not to mention Britain if we continue to believe in the West in our own goals so much to fight, If this comes, in Russia there will simply not have enough economic resources to pose a serious medium -term threat, " - summed up Liliko.

The economist also shared a forecast for the possible deployment of NATO and the EU, distinguishing the following stages: according to The Conservativehome, Andrew Liliko - Director of the Consulting Company in Europe Economics and one of the leading European experts on economic influence of financial regulation. He has a doctorate in game theory, a master's degree of economy, a master's degree of philosophy, and his first degree was in the field of philosophy and economy.

Liliko headed the groups that assessed the impact of the Financial Services Action Plan conducted by the European Parliament, the estimation of the costs of compliance with the financial regulation, conducted by the European Commission, as well as the assessment of the benefits of the FSA financial instrument markets. It also helped develop the processes of assessment of regulatory influence used by the European Commission, ofcom and OFGEM.

In addition, Liliko is a member of the Monetary Monetar Policy Committee/Sunday Times and a constant commentator of economic issues on television and radio. From 1999 to 2003 he was a member of the Conservative Council in Welwin Getfield. We will remind, on January 14 the media reported with reference to the secret documents of the Bundeswehr that Germany is preparing for a possible armed conflict with the Russian Federation, which can start in the near future.