In Ukraine, 5 million people can mobilize for a long war - research (infographics)

According to journalists, in addition to 500,000 people who are going to be involved in the Armed Forces in 2024, the total mobreserv of Ukraine is important and important. In order to calculate it, the total number of men was taken away from the number of refugees abroad, people with disabilities, guardians, large children, students, teachers and other categories of citizens. There are more than 5 million men in Ukraine, who could be called to army ranks.

This is evidenced by approximate calculations as part of the study texty. org. ua. With the help of demographic analysis, its authors tried to answer the question of what general mobilization reserve Ukraine has as of the beginning of 2024, which is important in the long -term war on exhaustion. The authors of the study point out that the error in the calculations can be significant - the last census was conducted in 2001, and no one knows how many people live in Ukraine.

It is reported that before the full-scale invasion in Ukraine there were just less than 10. 5 million men aged 18-59 years (excluding residents of occupied Crimea and Donbass). Researchers refer to the demographic forecast of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after MV Ptukha NAS of Ukraine in 2023. The Armed Forces today serve at least 1. 1 million people. It is estimated that the losses of the dead and wounded are about 200-300 thousand.

In addition, more than 60 thousand women serve. Due to occupation, Ukraine remained without 570 thousand men, this is without internally displaced. There are about 646 thousand able -bodied men abroad. Some of them have left the occupied territories through the Russian Federation, they can be taken from a mobilization reserve, "we will continue to consider that this number already includes many men who are not mobilized - many children and people with disabilities.

We will assume that, like women 15% of the total number left, "the publication reads. It is estimated that men with disabilities in Ukraine have about 1. 02 million. About 125 thousand are caring for a child or adult with disabilities, they should also be excluded from a mobilization reserve. In addition, 123 thousand are large parents. Fine students in the eye form of teaching with the possibility of delay from the call on January 1, 2022 was 431 thousand.

5% could remain in the occupation, that is, another 408 thousand should be deducted from the mobilization reserve. It is noteworthy that in two years the number of freshmen has doubled, since access to universities is often seen as a way of evading mobilization. In 2023, the number of new students increased to 200. 2 thousand, that is, in two years - by 180 thousand. As of the 2022/23 school year, there were 44,000 men among school teachers.

There are data on 41 thousand men-scientists, to which 16 thousand graduate students are added. 50 thousand men are taught in higher education institutions or work in pedagogical positions. Some of them have reached retirement age, so the total number should be reduced by 70%. 5% of scientists and teachers could remain in the occupied territories. It is not necessary to take into account training and teaching abroad: the total number of such people is small.

Thus, another 107,000 people should be subtracted from the mobilization reserve. According to the Cabinet of Ministers, there are currently 528 thousand reserved men, which should also be subtracted from the mobreser. The total number of convicts is 26. 6 thousand. The legislation stipulates that persons convicted of serious and especially serious crimes should be removed from military accounting. The total number of young people aged 18-26 years is 1. 68 million. taken into account.

Among other things, mobilization is also released: researchers have not found data on the number of such men. It is clarified that the number of men who care for a child with disabilities or adults with disabilities of group I-II disabilities are only taken into account approximately. The number of Ukrainian men - mostly from Chernivtsi and Transcarpathian regions - with dual citizenship, which most likely left for the second passport.

In Ukraine, dual citizenship is forbidden, but it is impossible to check who it is. There are 413 thousand men aged 25-26. Not counting students, it is worth subtracting 33. 5%, which for various reasons do not fall under mobilization, in the end - plus 273 thousand in the reserve. If you reduce the age of mobilization to 18 years, you can add another 434 thousand (this without mobilization of students). The authors of demographic analysis speak of the lost generation.

"The war lays very serious demographic consequences for Ukraine. The number of subsequent generations depends on the number of young people and their willingness to build families. It is people aged 25-35 (and at this age mostly become parents) we have very little,"-" It is indicated in the material. Women were counted as were men. They received 5. 6 million but should be considered for children, because when there is a minor in the family, only one parent can serve.

It is established that 46% of women aged 18-60 are raising children. Therefore, it can be assumed that the announcement of mobilization for women without children will allow to replenish a reserve for 3 million people. Recall that some of the men in March can be awarded the summons again. It was also reported that according to the representative of the Poltava Criminal Code Roman Isaumin, recruiting is not enough, mobilization remains the main way of replenishment of the Armed Forces.