Defense and "frost": war in Ukraine can stop this year - Welt

German journalists believe that this situation has been partly due to the irresponsible actions of German Chancellor Olaf Soltz and other Western politicians. The publication notes that there are more and more signals about the possible "freezing of conflict" in Ukraine for a certain period. Thus, the leader of the Parliamentary faction of the SPD in the Bundestag Rolf Muttzenikh expressed the idea of ​​the possibility of "freezing" of war, which caused wide public outrage.

However, there are serious arguments for both the temporary suspension of the war. One of the reasons for "freezing" is that both sides act as rational actors. The war leads to depletion of resources, and neither party has a clear advantage, which makes the rapid termination of conflict and the conclusion of a peace agreement is unlikely.

Another argument is that Ukraine is likely to be a losing party, but when freezing the conflict, it can keep the face and avoid the final recognition of the defeat. Moscow can also accept the "frozen" conflict. The Russian armed forces can remain in the country, but the supply of Western weapons will cease, and negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO will be stopped. This can create some positive condition for Russia.

"Now the question is: will this conflict last for years? Most likely, no. On the contrary, there are many reasons to believe that it will be frozen this year," the material reads. The publication writes that Ukraine's chances of returning lost territories this year are insignificant. Most likely, Kiev will have to focus on keeping the current front line.

However, certain conclusions cannot be drawn, and it is likely that Ukraine will have to face new attacks by Russia, which can lead to significant territorial losses. Currently, Russia is actively trying to break through the first line of defense of Ukraine at 18 points, and in mid -February they succeeded in Avdiivka in Donetsk region.

However, the second and third lines of defense of Ukraine are much weaker than the first, which increases the risk of breakthrough of Russian troops deep into the country to the Dnieper River, Welt notes. Ukraine lacks ammunition and weapons, which makes its situation even more vulnerable. According to military expert Carlo Masal, Ukraine is expecting a "very critical phase" until September.

Moscow probably mobilizes from 240,000 to 768,000 soldiers in the next months, while the Ukrainian military is experiencing serious difficulties with personnel. The average age of servicemen is 43 years, and they face a huge shortage of artillery ammunition, radio electronic wrestling, military equipment and other equipment. The situation for Kiev is becoming more intense, despite some temporary success.

Military experts from different countries expect that the war will lean in favor of Moscow in the summer, if the event does not provide significant assistance to Ukraine in the near future. "President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated that the event provided only 30 percent of the promised equipment. Despite the pleading calls of Kiev, there is every reason to believe that the situation will not change," the journalists added.

The publication suggests that assistance from the US weapons will be sharply reduced, regardless of the election result. In Europe, however, there is not enough strength and political will to provide the necessary assistance with weapons. "The event has completely underestimated Russia's military potential and its global alliances. Moscow has enough resources and global support to continue the present war for several more years," the newspaper said.

We will remind, on March 20, the head of the German Parliamentary faction of the Social Democratic Party Rolf Mutzenik, which belongs to Chancellor Olaf Scholtz, stated that he did not intend to give up his proposal about the need for freezing war in Ukraine, despite the fact that the German government has the opposite view. Earlier, on March 7, Politico reported that German Chancellor Olaf Soltz wants to force Kiev to negotiate with Moscow because "everything went too far".