Dependence on China will increase: in the Russian Federation there will be difficulties with weapons to continue the war - ISW

According to analysts from Washington, the Russian Federation depletes limited Soviet reserves, but it is unclear whether it will be able to produce enough against the background of high losses of equipment in Ukraine, even with further mobilization of the economy. In the future, Russia is likely to be difficult to produce and purchase the tools required for military operations in Ukraine. The Kremlin's dependence on foreign partners is likely to increase.

In order to support the pace of offensive in Ukraine, the Russian Federation relied largely on the restoration of reserves of Soviet weapons, especially armored vehicles. About it writes "Institute of War Study" in the summary of September 15. The Government of the Russian Federation will probably need to further mobilize the economy and the defense industry and invest in increasing potential to maintain current rates of operations in the medium and long term.

The Russian Federation depletes limited Soviet reserves, but it is unclear whether the defensive industry will be able to produce sufficiently against the background of high levels of equipment losses, even with further mobilization of the economy. According to preliminary estimates, the efforts of the Russian Federation are unlikely to be stable in the medium and long term due to the expected lack of labor and further Western sanctions.

In the Russian Federation, it is recognized that in the coming years Russia will face high demand for labor. Related to the Kremlin, Izvestiya reported on December 24th last year, that the lack of labor in the Russian Federation, partly due to the war in Ukraine, reached 4. 8 million people, which will probably worsen and weaken the opportunities of the Russian Federation to strengthen the MIC.

American researchers also refer to the statements of Ukrainian intelligence representatives, who noted that the Russian Federation has to rely on the supply of the DPRK because its own industry does not produce enough ammunition. As of June 2024, North Korea put 4. 8 million artillery shells.

Earlier, thanks to the support of the DPRK, Russian opportunities in the sense of artillery were far superior to Ukrainian, such advantage was used to support offensive operations, so as not to allow the Armed Forces to challenge the initiative on the battlefield.

Recently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation intensified military cooperation with Pyongyan, as evidenced by the visit of the head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigu on September 13 and Putin's visit in June 2024. According to analysts, the deepening of the military partnership of the Russian Federation and the DPRK is symbolic, the same in the Kremlin seek to achieve in bilateral relations with Iran, China and other possible partners.

"Russia is likely to face the reduction of weapons and equipment and it will be difficult to compensate for such a deficit, if it is not possible to bypass a lot of Western sanctions and significantly expand cooperation with foreign partners to get enough military equipment, components and dual -use items," The Washington analysts note. Recall that Russian troops can "cut" the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kupyansk-remains 2-3 km, Ukrainian observer Konstantin Mashovets said.