Separatism, Russian language and "trial lands": whether there will be Russia's war in the north of Kazakhstan

The situation in Kazakhstan is reminiscent of 2013 - before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Focus has found parallels in the modern history of the two countries and will understand whether the new war will be for Northern Kazakhstan. There were three of them - Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan. It is these countries that in the first decades after the collapse of the USSR, Russia chose as a base for the restoration of the empire.

There are many reasons - from nuclear status to the powerful economic base of these countries. In the end, Belarus was able to absorb, Ukraine was ready for everything to say goodbye to the "beloved brother", even to fight. Kazakhstan still continues to stay at the crossroads, pursuing foreign policy such as the one that the second President of Ukraine called "multifaceted policy".

Many in Kazakhstan itself call the modern period in the country "Kazakh 2013", that is, the year before the beginning of Russian aggression to Ukraine. Focus decided to answer the question: whether Kazakhstan threatens the invasion of Russian troops in the near future and which is now the political situation in the largest Russian colony. There is really a lot in the history of Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

Both countries were conquered by the Russian Empire in the XVIII century under the pretext of protection against other empires. Both peoples tried to erase history. Only Ukrainians imposed the idea of ​​"one people", and for the Kazakh, for obvious reasons, another concept was imposed-the absence of any civilization on these lands before the arrival of the Russians. Kazakhstan received his borders today in the Soviet period.

Therefore, the thesis "created by Lenin" (the Kazakh SSR was formed in the Stalin period, but conceptually it does not change) can also easily apply here. In fact, one great Eurasian steppe is reached geographically from Bulgaria to Manchuria. Until the twentieth century, this territory was not technologically not possible to hold any borders, so lovers to rewrite maps from Moscow are really where to walk. In the 1930s, Stalin's collectivization also led to famine in Kazakhstan.

In fact, the traditional economy of this people - nomadic cattle breeding. In the second half of XX century. Kazakhstan survived the development of the virgin and industrial development. In the steppe, whole cities grew. These processes can be compared to the development of the Persian Gulf several decades later, where metropolitan areas, skyscrapers and other modern infrastructure have grown in the desert. Kazakhstan also found significant oil deposits.

The famous Baikonur Kosmodrom was built on the territory of the country. At the same time, Semipalatinsk conducted experiments on nuclear weapons testing, from which tens of thousands of people were injured. In Kazakhstan, they remember this crime against their people. Therefore, the Soviet past in the state is evaluated, to put it mildly, ambiguously.

The settlement of the region of the population (including ethnic Russians) Economy of the city Features (if any) of economy of the region of Uralsk Western Kazakh region. 233 thousand people (c. 50 thousand - Russians) Production industry. The only plant that processes lacry root - its extract is used in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, the region is famous for oil production. The largest underwing is the Italian consortium Kpo Pavlodar Pavlodar region 367 thousand people (c.

135 thousand-Russians light and processing industry. Petrochemical plant coal and metalworking industry, Kazlinsk Kizil-Ordin region City status-closed administrative-territorial formation. The mayor is appointed by the President of the Russian Federation with the approval CPC Semei (Semipalatinsk) Abay region 350 thousand people (Russians - approx. 80 thousand) TRAPRAPRAPRATION Knot. Processing industry. Bus, cable factories. Aktobin region 500 thousand people (approx.

100 thousand people - Russians) food industry. It is an element of the China-Europe transport corridor. The region is rich in oil and gas fields of Karaganda Karagandin region 498 thousand population (approx. 200 thousand - Russians) one of the industrial centers of Kazakhstan. Processing, machine -building and food industry. The largest enterprises - ArcelorMittal factories and mines in the region are a special economic zone here again begs for analogies with Ukrainian history.

During the development of virgin and industrialization of Kazakhstan, a considerable number of Russian -speaking population arrived in its territory. The Russians have moved to these territories since their conquest, but from the middle of the XX century. This process has become widespread. Thus, whole regions of compact residence were formed not just Russian -speaking Kazakhs, but ethnic Russians. Thus, in 1989, Kazakhs made only 39. 7% of the country's population.

And now, about 70% of the population or 14 million people consider themselves ethnic kazaks. The older generation of ethnic Russians does not want to reintegrate into Kazakh society. The Almaty political scientist DO Kushus calls the Kazakh society and the Russian ethnic enclave in it "two different worlds. " Of the 19 million population of Kazakhstan, about 3 million are Russians. About 15% of them live in the capital of Soviet Kazakhstan, the city of Almaty.

The rest of the Russians are scattered in the north of the country, that is, from the Tsorons of the Russian Federation. However, during the years of independence, ethnic proportions have changed to the Cost of Kazakhs; The Russians make up the majority of the population in only one region of the country-the North Kazakhstan region (the Russians make up about half of the region's population). This area is one of the most depressed in carin. Its share in the economy states only 1. 6% of GDP.

Currently, there are 22 cities in Kazakhstan with more than 100 thousand people. Of these, four of them are ethnic Russians-Ust-Kamenogorsk, Petropavlovsk, Temirtau, and Rudne. All Russians make up just over half of the population.

The Kazakh Political Viewer Marlene Zimanov notes that although the young generation of ethnic Russians, born in independent Kazakhstan, tries to fully integrate into Kazakh society, the older generation is mainly the adherents of the Soviet historical and cultural paradigm. He also notes the growth in the country of the third group of ethnic Russians - those who immigrated after the beginning of direct Russian aggression against Ukraine.

In Kazakhstan, the Russian language, in particular in education, is still quite strong. In the post -Soviet space, only Belarus is ahead of Kazakhstan by the number of students who receive education in Russian - about 30% of the total number of students. The Kremlin "strategists" did not even need to draw new techniques. They began to promote the same story about the "oppression of Russian -speaking", "aggressive nationalists", this time Kazakh and "historical lands".

It is worth noting that the government is pursuing a policy of encouraging the relocation of people from the south of the country (where ethnic Kazakhs live mainly) in the northern regions with independence, the country was headed by the former communist elite. However, over time, the social order has become more and more returned to its traditional way - the division into three beets, which has been leading its roots since the Middle Ages.

The Chinese researcher of political processes in Kazakhstan, Chaoming Lee, notes that from the very independence in 1991, the country has been controversial in the country between the Zhuzovo way of organizing society and the party-hardware system imposed by the Bolsheviks. Zhuzes also existed in the Soviet period, but the Soviet authorities tried in every possible way to break this system.

Over the three decades of independence of contradiction, they have only intensified and touched on all spheres of public life from economic to cultural. In the end, the struggle of the Zhuz for dominance became one of the reasons for the social explosion that occurred in the state in January 2022. Both ways existed in symbiosis with an effort to build a civil society that would take a way of life similar to the European one.

It is worth noting the key difference between Kazakhstan and Ukraine - it is geographical. However, most of the country is in Asia. Therefore, European integration for Kazakhstan was unlikely. "Away from Moscow" performed by Astana (again called the Kazakh capital) was to cooperate with the United States, which were a world hegemon at the turn of the millennium. This cooperation was the admission of transnational corporations to part of Kazakhstan's natural resources.

However, with the elevation of the PRC, the situation has changed. China has become more and more economical hegemony in the region. His soft power policies spread to Kazakhstan. The situation changed significantly in 2013, when it was at the Kazakh University that the newly elected leader of the PRC, Xi Jinping, first declared his new initiative to restore the ancient Silk Road. At that time, it seemed to many simply based on a demagogy on nostalgia.

However, over the next ten years, this initiative, called "One Belt - One Way" has become the largest global project. As the ancient silk route passed, including the Kazakh steppe (in the best of times there were two branches), so the modern China's transport corridor to Europe can pass through Kazakhstan or… Russia. So Kazakhstan from the object of imperial response became the logistics competitor of Moscow.

Control over this state became not just the pink dream of the Kremlin's inhabitants, but an important factor in the logistics potential of the Russian Federation. On the other hand, the PRC would like to transport their goods through a more controlled and loyal territory than and which is a hazardous and difficult predictable Russian Federation. And here the geopolitical triangle closes, because the United States clearly does not want excessive strengthening of the PRC.

One of the factors of Washington's rise was historically logistics (mainly marine, but land corridors also abolished). Thus, the geographical location of Kazakhstan became both a potential factor in its exaltation and development, and a possible cause of death. This is not the first time in history. If the US and China have enough economical "gingerbread", then the main "product" that the Russian Federation offers its allies is security.

And the value of such a product increases sharply during the unstable period, so the goals and objectives of Moscow are more than understandable. Kazakh political technologist Dean Shayhislam notes the strengthening of separatic ideas in the country's information space since 2020. She considers it explaining this by the desire of the Russian Federation to destabilize the situation in the region.

However, in preserving the territorial integrity of Kazakhstan, an important role is played by a factor mentioned above - the same that distinguishes the situation in Kazakhstan from Ukrainian. This is the geographical location and set of allies. Kazakhstan's logistics potential is an important factor in the economic development of the PRC, so Beijing is interested if not in full control over the logistics corridor, at least that Moscow does not control it.

In September 2022, Xi Jinping announced the guarantee of the territorial integrity of the state. Also, the importance of the logistics corridor is the fact that it was on the eve of the visit of the leader of the PRC Si Jinping to Moscow in the Kazakh city of Petrozavodsk, a small separatist group declared the formation of the "People's Republic" and a department from Kazakhstan. A kind of trump in negotiations. However, it is clear that he could not bring any success.

The fact is that despite a large number of Russian -speaking population, which is quite compact in the north of the country, separatism as a phenomenon rarely goes further in front of the TV. Local observers call local supporters of the Russian Federation rather than a real threat. Representatives of the authorities also treat them. In this aspect, you can safely make an analogy with Ukraine on the eve of fateful events in Crimea and Donbass.

Without support from the outside, no separatist movement had a chance of success. So if we say that Kazakhstan is now in Ukrainian 2013, is it worth expecting an invasion of next year (at least a veiled hybrid war)? Most likely, no. First, when we talk about 2013, it is quite conditional. And these processes can reach for years. But there are two factors that make it impossible for the Russian invasion of Kazakhstan. However, the real course of history demonstrates the opposite.

It turned out that a country that is friends with the PRC has significantly security guarantees than the state has chosen integration into Western society. Kazakhstan has no allied obligations with the PRC, so the analogy with NATO or South Korea is inappropriate in this case. Here is the question of moral leadership without any obligations. China can protect from the attack by an aggressive inadequate neighbor loyal to itself.