Iranian Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles: Will they be a problem for Ukrainian air defense

There were talk that Iran could give Russia its ballistic missiles. Military expert Alexander Kovalenko analyzes this opportunity and prospects for the use of these weapons in Ukraine. In 2022, information was first emerged that Russia was trying to get Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar ballistic missiles from Iran.

Such requests were due to the fact that in Russia the reserves of missiles 9m723 and 9m728 OTRC "Iskander", and already at the end of May-early June, Russian troops began to use the S-300 SPRC, transmitted to blows on the surface, in an attempt to compensate for the lack of fire potential. However, the 5V55 missiles had a very dubious efficiency.

Being at first a air defense missile, it did not have sufficient accuracy to replace the operative-tactical weapons, as well as had a limited start-up range-up to 75 km. In this, the accuracy of the defeat was deteriorating with the increase in flight range. Mostly Russian troops use the C-300 complexes in Ukraine as an element of non-decoration terror, striking in frontline cities and villages, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, etc.

But the need for high-precision missile weapons of the operative-tactical level was not satisfied. In the second half of 2023, reports that Russia had reached some arrangements with Iran on the supply of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar. Especially these conversations were more frequent against the end of restrictions on the export of rocket weapons imposed on Iran.

Although a completely rational question arises: and when some restrictions were stopped by Iran at all? For example, the same Zolfaghar rocket was first applied in Syria in 2017. Then the Iranian forces, which support Bashar Assad, struck this system on Deir-ez-zore. And in 2021, the Yemeni Hutivits attacked these missiles in Saudi Arabia. Actually question: UN restriction in action? But a little details about what is Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles.

Describing these missiles, many indicate their main characteristics, such as the flight range and the mass of the combat part, but it is also important to know where the history of these missiles goes. The Fateh-110 rocket was published in 2002 and was developed on the basis of an unmanaged Zelzal-2 missile, which was, in particular, created on the basis of Zelzal-1, one of the first most successful missiles in the initial stage of the Iran missile program.

Why did Zelzal-1 become the most successful in many years of attempts and mistakes? Everything is very simple: Iran has access to Chinese missile technology using CSS-8 missiles supply. However, the Chinese CSS-8 missiles (Project 8610) were a copy of the Soviet C-75 as amended, allowed from the air launcher to make a tactical, ballistic class "Earth-Earth".

In fact, the entire further rocket program of Iran, to one extent or another, but was repelled from the base in the form of Zelzal-1, not too far away, even by characteristics: flight range-up to 200 km (200-300 km in Fateh-110, depending on Generation), and the mass of the combat part-about 500 kg (500-650 kg Fateh-110, depending on the generation). In addition to CSS-8, Zelzal-1 was also influenced by the tactical Soviet missile 9K52 "Luna-M".

Thus, the Iranian missile program is a symbiosis of Soviet and Chinese technologies, which has been improved over the years as Iran has received an accessible elementary base for modernization. The Zolfaghar rocket is a continuation of the development of the Fateh-110, but from the previous generation rocket it has a wonderful increase in characteristics.

In particular, the Zolfaghar flight range is up to 700 km, and its accuracy has increased significantly the use of a complex of guidance systems. Yes, in addition to the inertial guidance system, the rocket uses GPS, as well as GNSS commercial systems. Yes, the main difference between Zolfaghar missiles from previous generations is that the combat part of this group is separated by target. This significantly complicates its detection, tracking and destruction.

In this matter, Iranian rocket -built were even able to bypass Russian ICRC "Iskander". Although such a technological jerk in the Iranian missile program without support from Russia would hardly be possible. It is noteworthy that Zolfaghar appeared after the sanctions in 2014 and at the beginning of the drift of Russian foreign policy to the east, both close and distant.

Considering these missiles, it can be said that these missiles are more similar to the Soviet and Russian, late 1980s-early 1990s. In particular, the Fateh-110 is a conditionally improved "point-y" shopping mall and Zolfaghar is a modernized CCC "Iskander". Ukrainian air defense tools have developed algorithms for counteracting both rocket data types, with the honors that the Ballistic SCRC "Iskander-M"/Zolfaghar can only knock down Patriot and SAMP/T SMRC.

Therefore, it is possible that after receiving Iranian missiles, Russia will use Fateh-110 in the near areas, with the lowest Air Defense concentration, and Zolfaghar-a much larger area of ​​rear of Ukraine, where there are no air defense products capable of intercepting missiles. Although for the sake of the experiment, they can try to break through the Kiev air defense.

On the other hand, the problem of using these missiles by Russia is that they are not a mass product, their quantity is limited and production is incomparably, for example, with the production of drones-Kamikadze, which Russian troops fill Ukraine with hundreds of monthly. In addition, rockets are launched from specific starting installations (PUs), which should be supplied to Russia with rockets, and crews will undergo additional training for them.

And in the face of counteracting these missiles, perhaps more profitable and effective will destroy the PU, without which the missiles themselves will not be used. But in history with the possible transfer of Russian missiles Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar there are a lot of variables.

For example, it is not clear why this transmission has not been made since 2022? Has Russia not been able to offer Iran something but money that could be interested in IP? Is the production of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar not so great that in order to meet the needs of Russia, which at the beginning of 2022, tens of a day launched the "Iskander" in Ukraine, just have to devastate the years accumulated by years? There are many questions, but the answers to them will be obtained only in two cases.