Russian bombers over the cities of Ukraine: what will happen if the US is not restored

Termination of military assistance to Ukraine can become even more shame for the US than departure from Afghanistan, the analyst Mark Tisen prophesies in the Washington Post column. And he invites the Republicans to imagine Russian bombers over Ukrainian cities . . . This week, the Republicans of the House of Representatives criticized President Baiden for his catastrophic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, and this was right: it was one of the worst foreign policy in American history.

But if Republicans stop US military assistance to Ukraine, they provoke just as catastrophic foreign policy fiasco - and they will be responsible for it in the same way as Biden is responsible for exit from Afghanistan. The crazy images of the Taliban, which marry in Kabul, while the despair Afghans try to escape with Americans, engraved in the minds of the US people. They left the indelible stain on Baiden's reputation.

Prior to the fall of Kabul in August 2021, his rating never dropped below 50 percent. After that, the earth went out of his feet-and he never recovered. The unsuccessful withdrawal of troops became a turning point, after which many Americans decided that Biden was incompetent. Republicans should look at the harm that the fall of Kabul caused a good name by Baiden, and to imagine what harm will cause the fall of Kiev to their reputation.

Their delays with new help have already bowed the scales of Libra on the battlefield in favor of Russia. Last year, it did not achieve any military success, while Ukraine managed to destroy almost a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet until the end of January this year. But since the help on the Capitol Hill stalled, Russia began to capture the territory again.

If the House of Representatives controlled by the Republicans does not pass military assistance in the near future, the Ukrainians will end with key arms systems, and Russia will begin to make serious success on the ground this year. Knowing that Kyiv's weapons are exhausted, Russia prepares an offensive that will begin when the earth will dry at the end of spring. Currently, the US HIMARS systems are holding back Russian troops at a distance.

But if these missiles, as well as ammunition to small arms and 155 mm, artillery shells are not replenished, Russia will start to break off the defense of Ukraine. Today, US air defense systems are holding back Russian bombers and allow Ukrainian forces to knock Russian drones and missiles. But if Ukraine's air defense interceptors end, Russian aircraft will be able to bomb Ukrainian advanced positions with impunity.

They will also be able to attack the critical infrastructure of Ukraine, immersing Ukrainian cities into the darkness and harming the economy of the country. Then they will almost certainly begin carpet bombardment of Ukrainian cities, forcing Ukraine to use the reserves of depleted interceptors to protect their civilian population and leaving the front line unprotected. After all, when the interceptors end, the civilian population will remain defenseless.

Imagine the appearance of piloted Russian bombers flying over Ukrainian cities and destroying them. The result will be a humanitarian catastrophe. Russia will cause victims among civilian populations on the scale of Europe since the Second World War, deliberately striking in schools, hospitals and houses to break the will of Ukraine. (If you doubt it, just look at Russia's cruel attacks and massacres of civilians during her 2016 Barbarian Air Air Campaign in Aleppo, Syria).

The mass wave of refugees will begin to leave the country, even more destroying the economy. With the advantage in the air, Russia can attack not only the population and civilian infrastructure of Ukraine, but also its defense industry.

The weapons of Ukrainian production, such as the Magura V5 marine drone, were used (along with the anti-ship missiles of the large range of American production) to defeat the Black Sea Fleet of Moscow and the coercion of the Russian Naval Fleet to withdraw from the Crimean ports and Ukrainian territorial waters. This allowed Ukraine to restore the export of grain, which is crucial for its economy.

But if the anti-ship is over, the Russian naval forces will return, which will allow them to strike on the most important port city of Odesa, to stop supplying grain and to go to civilian population in the west of Ukraine, which will again be dangerous due to the exhaustion of the resources of Ukraine. Although Ukraine is unlikely to fall this year, the conditions for the victory of Russia in 2025 will be created - just until (Republicans hope) Donald Trump will join the post.

Therefore, the catastrophic collapse of Ukraine may well be supervised by the Republican Party, not Baiden. Imagine indignation when stunned Americans see Russian troops marching in Kiev, killing and robbing how they did in Bucha at the beginning of the war. Who, according to Republicans, will be responsible for the atrocities who will see on their screens? But in fact, this time the political consequences in many plans will be even worse.

At least in Afghanistan Biden could claim that it was time to withdraw US troops from the danger zone. But there are no US troops in Ukraine that are in danger. Republicans are ready to leave Ukraine not to save the lives of Americans, but to save money. This solution may not be as popular as they think when Americans will see the dead bodies of Ukrainian women and children on TV.

What about the opportunity to allow Europe to fill this weapon deficit? The answer is simple: Europeans do not have stocks. "Only in the United States there are available stocks of ammunition, armored vehicles and shells, as well as air defense interceptors to significantly affect the trajectory of the conflict in the coming weeks and months," says Fred Kagan, director of the Project "Critical Threats" in the United States.

And here is the result: without the help of the USA Putin will start a march to Kiev, and Ukraine will become the next Afghanistan. That is, it is time for the Republicans to choose: if you do not want you to be accused of falling Kiev in the same way as Baiden is accused of falling Kabul, send military assistance to Ukraine. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position. The author is responsible for published data in the "Thought" section.