Coercion to defeat. How long Russia will be able to wage war without oil dollar

The initiative was supported by all countries G7: USA, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada. According to Dmitry Goryunov, the senior economist of the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), these countries have already stopped or limited the purchase of oil in the Russian Federation or are in the process of abandoning it. The question of whether the countries that buy Russian oil today join the initiative: China, India and Turkey.

Agia Zagrebelskaya, the founder of the "Antitrast League", calls the following details of the initiative that are not yet known: "There were no such precedents in history," comments G7 Dmitry Gorununov. Only the volume of minimal life and medicine needs in the case of Iraq. But the individual price for a particular country in the world has not yet been introduced.

" According to experts surveyed, oil prices for Russia are being implemented through tanker insurance, since the lion's share of world insurers is western companies. "Oil varieties of Russian descent can not be exported through ports, as insurance of such tankers will be forbidden. That is, G7 will close for Russian varieties of Urals and Sokol most markets," - comments Vitaliy Shapran, a member of the NBU Council.

"Oil buyers, which in the aggregate make up about 80% of world GDP, voluntarily undertake to buy Russian oil at a predetermined price. And insurance and logistics companies that control more than 50% of the world oil transportation market will refuse to insure and transport oil, price which will be higher than the cartel, " - continues Agia Zagrebelsk. The focus interlocutor describes this mechanism as a cartel of buyers, the discipline in which is supported by oligopoly in the adjacent market.

"If the cartel is a violation in antitrast law, then its use to limit the destructive action of a monopoly player is quite acceptable," Zagrebelskaya adds. An important condition for the collapse of the Soviet Empire in 1991 was a long period of low oil prices. Without the receipt of sufficient number of so -called "oil dollar" the raw materials economy of the USSR gradually declined, and the empire lost the opportunity to restrain the desire for the independence of the former Soviet republics.

Russia's economy as a successor of the Soviet Empire at a new stage can remain without a significant proportion of "oil dollar" with all the devastating consequences. According to Agia Zagrebelskaya, if the mechanism of restriction of oil prices is operational, it can be safely compared with Himars on the sanction front.

"Theoretically, limiting the price of Russian oil can have a great impact on the Russian Federation, since 38% of the Russian state budget revenues should fall into the oil and gas sector this year," Dmitry Gorununov says. However, the exact figures of the aggressor losses, according to the expert, depend on the ability to impose such a restriction in principle, as well as specific parameters of such arrangements.

It should be noted that from the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine has already suffered significantly from the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. However, it is the oil and gas sector that helps the aggressor to stay afloat. "Sanctions have already divided the economy of the Russian Federation into energy and non-energy sectors.

The latter is already collapse: the factories are standing, the activity in mechanical engineering and aviation has fallen, in trade empty 30-50% of the area, depending on the region,"-said Vitaliy Shapran. The focus interlocutor adds that while the Government of the Russian Federation provides subsidies to agricultural, transport and other sectors, but if the oil industry revenue falls by 50%, then it will be on the verge of survival.

Attempts to keep oil sales at the expense of alternative areas are unlikely to be successful. "Although the Government of the Russian Federation continues to tell the fables that it will supply all oil in the PRC, trade between the Russian Federation and the PRC in dollars or euro is impossible due to the restriction of payments for Russian banks, and Yuan is not fully converted in full," Shapran notes. "Other ways are either oil like Iran, or are unable to buy and process a lot of oil.

" Shapran adds that there are no powerful oil storage facilities in the Russian Federation, as in the United States, and the conservation of wells is a very expensive thing. Accordingly, the interlocutor of focus predicts that since December 5, "Muscovy" will have to sell its oil at a price, which will determine the G7, which in fact means the transition of control over the Russian economy to G7 ".

Respectively, restrictions from such a player will be reflected in the situation in the global market and the world's oil prices. The introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation.

"On the eve of the introduction of oil prices, there will be an increase in revenues to the Russian budget due to the increase in the cost of energy and speculative nature of the formation of quotations, which will not reflect the real correlation of supply and demand, but expectations for possible change of prices," - warns Gennady. - Russia will receive, even more income than expected - if in Fede The average price of oil Urals was set at $ 44.

2 per barrel, now it is traded at the price of $ 75-80 per barrel "b. The focus interlocutor calls not to use this argument as an excuse to refuse sanctions and to put up with the fact that the effect of them should not be expected before the second half of 2023.

"Task minimum is to withstand prices from raising on the eve of December 5 and early next year, when EU sanctions on Russian oil and petroleum products will come into force, as well as to insure against rising prices in the event of aggravation of confrontation in Libya and Iraq, which today supply a large part of the oil resource In the world markets, "Agia Zagrebelskaya continues. However, when the excitation demand subsides, prices are not excluded back and further cheaper oil.

Vitaliy Shapran expects to set the following prices in the region: "In such a situation, we can see gasoline prices about 25-30 UAH per liter. Agia Zagrebelska considers the reduction of oil prices with the task of the maximum that is unlikely to be achieved because while oil prices are regulated by OPEC Cartel, which is the leader of Saudi Arabia.

"Kronprintz Muhammad Ibn Salman has repeatedly made it clear that for the kingdom to cover the costs of non -crop projects of the prince, the most appropriate price is about $ 100 per barrel. Therefore, in the case of a significant decrease in price, we can expect a restriction of production from OPEC cartel," - said. The desired effect of sanctions is to deprive the aggressor of the opportunity to finance war.

However, Dmitry Gorununov reminds that there is a lot of money in the Russian Federation, so sanctions are more likely to have the form of additional pressure on the aggressor, not a tool for depriving him of his physical ability to fight.

Gennady Ryabtsev also believes that the impact of sanctions concerning the oil and gas sector will be delayed in time and will manifest not earlier than the second half of 2023, when the market will understand that the lack of supply from the Russian Federation is compensated in full and the global oil prices will go down.

"The potential reduction of production by 35% is inflowed into all related industries (service, insurance, financial companies), as well as employment and social sphere in areas of oil production that will degrade," - predicts Ryabtsev. According to the expert, this concerns the regions with high cost of production in the European part of the Russian Federation (Bashkiria, Udmurtia, Tatarstan) and territories where there are problems with the quality of raw materials.

"Restricting Russian oil prices will reduce the revenues of the Russian budget. This will reduce the costs of war and social needs, which means less missiles and more dissatisfied with their lives. The result will be the weakening of the Russian army and the government," Agia Zagrebelsk's development is predicted. Vitaliy Shapran looks into the future with even greater optimism.

He believes that in the first quarter of 2023, the federal budget will not have enough money for "stupid military entertainment", and no one will have to produce missiles, tanks, artillery and other weapons. According to the interlocutor of focus, about 75-80% of oil supplies from the Russian Federation will be banned, and as an alternative to Russia will only remain the oil pipeline (goes through Ukraine) and oil pipelines in the PRC, since the transportation of oil in tanks is very expensive.