"Disabling" cities, Kharkiv surroundings or the defeat of the Russian army: scenarios of escalation of war before the summer

One of the most devastating attacks on Ukraine's power system during the Great War happened on March 22. Kharkiv suffered the biggest losses, the largest city was left without light for a few days. Energy promise to improve the situation by the end of the week, and in the area to restore power supply can take months. Also in the morning of March 22 rockets flew to Dniproges objects in Zaporozhye, but there was no threat of breakdown of the dam.

In addition to massive rocket attacks, there are no balstrils in Odessa, Kiev and the eastern regions. In the daytime, on March 25, the Zircon missiles from the Crimea were launched at the center of Kiev. Towards the evening of the same day, the Russian army hit Odessa, and several explosions were heard in the city. Sumy region has been constantly fired at artillery and planning bombs since early March.

Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities already voice the likelihood of a new large -scale offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in one of the directions. The head of the Mukachevo District State Administration Sergey Gaidai directly advises to prepare for the "worst" - attempts to attack the invaders in Sumy region. The Kremlin has already acknowledged that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has grown from a "special military operation" into a real war.

Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it had contributed to the alleged intervention of the event. "As soon as this companion was formed, when the collective event became a participant on the side of Ukraine, it has already become a war for us. I am convinced of that. Everyone should understand it for their internal mobilization," he said. Moscow, he said, will not allow the existence of a state that is about to return all occupied territories, including annexed Crimea.

Russian political elites are confident in Putin's intention to continue the war. The Kremlin close to the Kremlin, the Medusa, they say that the head of the Russian Federation "felt the weakness of Ukraine and is ready to go to Kiev" even at the cost of additional mobilization. Other sources suggest that Moscow has more realistic goals: Kharkiv's occupation and the gradual end of the war. But there is no clear data on the decision on a large -scale offensive on the city.

The media also sounded a version of the departure of 300,000 Russians for a new offensive to Ukraine. In January of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine reported that more than 460 thousand Russian soldiers were located in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Thus, the potential of the enemy's living power can be closer to 800,000 soldiers.

In order for the gloomy scenarios not to come true, and in Kiev there was a convenient negotiation position, the Armed Forces should be defeated by Russia's troops, says military analyst Oleg Zhdanov. "Another option is unrealistic and is to change Putin and his environment. Russia will not yield and last at least a few months such a pace of offensive as it is now," he said. Earlier, the second half of the summer Russians do not prepare for the offensive.

Missile terror will continue, its main goal is to destroy the energy sphere and, as a consequence, the Ukrainian economy. The Kremlin thinks that it is possible to push Ukraine to negotiate on Russian conditions, I am sure Zhdanov. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly urged allies to provide additional air defense systems and ammunition. The situation is exacerbated by uncertainty due to differences in Congress and delayed US assistance for $ 60 billion.

The Ukrainian military is experiencing missiles for air defense systems, but there is no catastrophe yet. In addition to the US, Germany and other Western countries send the necessary shells in military assistance packages. The main thing is to preserve parity: the presence of missiles to the air defense complexes should be sufficient to destroy all the long -range missiles of the Russian Federation.

But the reserves need to be replenished as soon as the pause in massive shelling, the military experts interviewed by focus. Zhdanov focuses on the regularity of assistance. In his opinion, the victory of Ukraine depends on it, and if the partners do not agree, will have to choose far from the best options: peace in exchange for the territory or surrender with the fulfillment of all conditions of the Russian Federation.

It is likely that the entire 2024 of the Armed Forces will be aroused in strategic defense due to delayed supplies of Western military assistance. The Ukrainian army will not allow the Russians to seize new territories, a confident military expert, a former spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladislav Seleznev. "Fortification structures are being built, but the enemy uses aircraft. New Fab-3000 is being prepared for bombing of the Azovstal Mariupol Plant.

Only the more tactical nuclear charges are stronger," says the analyst of Focus. Speaking of the probable large -scale offensive of Russia's army, Seleznyov recalled the terms declared by President Vladimir Zelensky - the beginning of summer or late May. Currently, the Russian Federation is firing the entire territory of the country, trying to impress military and energy facilities so that all defense enterprises remain without electricity.

"A critical shortage of resources will cause the shovels to be reflected, as the Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleb said. If weapons are restored in the former volumes, it will be a little easier. But even the Czech initiative to buy 800,000 artillery ammunition for Ukraine in third countries," - the expert comments. Frequent shelling of Sumy region and kharkov energy infrastructure promotes rumors about a probable Russian offensive.

There is also no guarantee that the event of the invaders in the Kiev region through Belarus will not happen. Hope only for the fortifications under construction, the mine fields and the Ukrainian military intelligence, which monitors the accumulation of Russian resources for the offensive, says Ukrainian political scientist Igor Reitrovich. "It is very difficult to repeat the breakthrough on February 24, 2022.

At the beginning of the war we did not beat the Russian military in the Russian Federation, so they calmly gathered in camps and prepared for the invasion. Now the restrictions have changed if they want to recover troops, they will turn into light targets For the shocks of the Armed Forces, "he explained the focus. In the summer, Russia will focus on the occupation of Donetsk region.

If by the end of 2024 in Moscow they will understand the wearing and deterioration of the situation within Russia, it is necessary to go to negotiations. "Fireting of refineries, destruction of ships of the Black Sea Fleet and other military facilities in the Russian Federation can revive the topic of negotiations. But all these actions depend on many factors, especially Western assistance," - added Reityrovich.