Powder Barrel for the economy: why Russia will not withstand war against Ukraine

In its latest forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that Russia's GDP in 2023 will increase by 2. 2%. However, the improvement will be short -term, and in the future the Russian economy is waiting for a serious crisis. In Russia, it is still believed that the country's economy successfully copes with all military challenges and continues to develop even in conditions of rigid international sanctions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin really managed to put the country's economy on military rails and even achieve some success, but they are situational. This was told by Reuters Columnist Pierre Bridanson. The expert believes that for the Russian Federation, as a result, it will end in the explosion of economic "bombs of slow action". And the current state of the Russian economy was described by Brisenson as "overheating on a powder barrel.

" "War with Ukraine may not be unfolding in the plan, but in Russia they can still say that the economy works" better than expected ". However, if you look deeper, it will become clear that the current boom is not only temporary but also a prelude to a painful economic future, "he said. According to him, the data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicate that Russia's GDP in 2023 will increase by 2. 2%, and unemployment is at a historically low level of 3%.

A positive trend is also observed in how the country's economy adapts to international sanctions. But at the same time, Bryanson points out, through war, all public resources are concentrated in the military-industrial sector. In which "a lot of corruption, inefficiency, they do not know what profit is. " At the same time, despite the low unemployment, the war against Ukraine still hit the Russian labor market. According to the expert, the mobilization affected more than 300 thousand men.

"Employers complain about a lack of staff. The problem becomes acute even in industries that are not very closely related to the military machine," the analyst emphasizes. Further, according to Pierre Bryanson, only negative events await Russia. Thus, in the medium term its economy "threatens the series" Bomb of slow action ":" The economy of the Russian Federation is already difficult, and the IMF expects that in 2024 GDP growth will be halved.

But forcing the economy to work at the present pace means to exacerbate current problems and simply delay a greater crisis. The Russian military economy overheats on a powder barrel, "he explained. By the way, the other day, Doctor of Economics Igor Lipsitz said that in Russia there are problems related to poverty of the population. So, he said, many Russians feel a lack of money .