Oil will overflow the market: what will happen to the prices for fuel and how it will affect Russia

OPEC+ and their competitors increase production after the Allies - including Russia and OPEC members - abolished part of the previously introduced production reductions faster than planned. This additional supply already puts pressure on the market and has become one of the reasons for the current price reduction. The agency emphasizes the dynamics: this year the volume of supply increased by about 3 million barrels a day compared to the previous forecast (against 2.

7 million barrels earlier), and next year another increase is expected - about 2. 4 million barrels per day. Against the background of such an increase, the agency came to the surplus estimate of 4 million barrels per day. At the same time, the MEA reduced the global oil demand on Tuesday in 2025 - up to 710,000 barrels per day, ie 30,000 barrels less than the previous estimate.

The agency associates this with a complication of the macroeconomic conjuncture and the acceleration of the energy transition: "Oil consumption will remain low in the part remaining until the end of 2025 and in 2026," the document states. Mea expects an annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day and in 2025, and in 2026 - that "much lower than the historical trend" against the background of a weak macroclimate and electrification of transport.

Agency forecasts are at the lower border of the sectoral range: OPEC, for example, retains a more optimistic view of demand. On October 13, OPEC confirmed its own assessment of the increase in consumption of 1. 3 million barrels a day this year - almost twice as high as Mea's expectations - and said that the world economy was "feeling well".

The market response is already noticeable: as of October 14, oil prices have decreased, and the Brent brand traded just below 62 dollars per barrel - still higher than an annual minimum of about $ 58, fixed in April 2025. Against the background of the projected increase in supply and slowing down the demand, analytics warn of long pressure on prices until the balance on the market is again equalized.

Reducing the ceiling of prices for Russian oil in the long run can provoke inflation, devaluation and economic crisis in Russia. This was previously warned by NBU Council Member Vasyl Furman. He noted that about 30-40% of the budget of the Russian Federation is formed by the sale of oil, laid at the cost of $ 70 per barrel. At the same time, the EU set a price by almost a third lower - by 32% lower, which significantly reduces Russia's income, including funds for financing military expenditures.