Social costs are 20 times higher than defensive. Why the US is not up to the Third World War

On October 1, the budget year of 2022/2023 was completed (in the USA, the date of closing of the budgeting is not December, but the beginning of October). The federal budget expenditures amounted to $ 6,34 billion, or 24% of GDP if you take the gross product level in 2022. The amount of income is $ 4,439 billion. Thus, the budget deficit reached $ 1. 7 trillion, or 6. 7% of GDP. America continues to be in the Great Deficiency Matrix. This is when the budget gap exceeds 5% of GDP.

In the structure of income, tax payments of individuals prevail. The population, in fact, is drawn by "budget visas" on its own. If you take income tax ($ 2. 2 trillion) and social insurance payments ($ 1. 6 trillion), we will receive 85% of budget revenues !!! It is now clear why Americans are so meticulously analyzing their government's costs, including the help of other countries. The corporate income tax was less than $ 10%, or $ 420 billion.

Customs and excise duties gave only $ 80 and $ 76 billion. respectively (in particles it is 1. 8% and 1. 7%). Traditional inheritance tax is only 34 billion (less than 0. 01%). The deficit can be reduced either by rising income (tax increase) or by reducing costs. Or a combination of these factors. But, as we can see, to increase tax payments to anyone, and to expand the tax base - nowhere. Moreover, in the next, elected year. You are probably surprised, but the US is also a social state.

Yes, the citadel of liberalism, the free market and the spirit of entrepreneurship spends most of the federal budget on social programs. I understand that we were taught another, but the reality due to the dope of our illusions is not less real. If we take social security costs ($ 1. 35 trillion), medicine (889 billion), health insurance of persons older than 65 years (848 billion), unemployment benefits ($ 774 billion) and veterans expenses (302 billion ), we get more than 67.

4% of total costs that are directed at social programs. With a major lag from the social, there are defense costs ($ 821 billion). This, by the way, is only 3. 2% of GDP, that is, even less than the normative deductions we have on the eve of a full -scale war. By the way, the cost of defense is one of the lowest increases when compared to other expenses of the federal budget in recent years.

Interesting detail - the net interest costs for the US debt in the United States have increased to a record $ 659 billion, close to the defense budget parameters. 227 billion dollars were spent on infrastructure, transport and incentives for economy development. It is often possible to hear that US assistance to Ukraine occupies a small share in the structure of budget expenditures of America and is therefore not difficult for the US administration. Is such a statement objective? Yes and no.

If we take in the structure of total costs, then $ 60 billion. Ukraine is less than 0. 1%. But if you compare the amount of assistance with the cost of education, infrastructure, economy and transport, the ratio will no longer seem so insignificant. By the way, the end of the end expenditures excluded subsidies for writing off loans taken by Americans for higher education. The money in the treasury is not enough for all programs declared by Biden.

From the entire cost list, only the cost of servicing the state debt can be dramatically reduced, but for this purpose it is necessary to reduce the base rate of the Fed at times. But there is no opportunity for this - inflation. Reducing the base rate is also necessary for the formation of long -term economic growth factors. One of the key drivers here is the mortgage.

For the development of a mortgage it is necessary to create conditions under which the purchase of housing on credit is more profitable than its rent. Now the situation is diametrically opposite-the rent by 30-40% is more profitable than the mortgage, the rates of which have exceeded 7. 5%. Starting a mortgage is one of the growth drivers in the economy and in the financial markets.

At the same time, the high inflation period opens up for the United States the opportunity to burn its debt in inflation. This is real when the GDP deflator is higher than the nominal increase in debt - in this case, the ratio of debt to the gross product is reduced. But in order to take such a unique historical chance, it is necessary to dramatically reduce the budget deficit. After all, new debts will have to be attracted to cover the budget deficit.

In this case, if the deficit is too large, the increase of new debts to cover the deficit will output the burning of old debts in the inflation. Therefore, the current paradigm of America should be attracted annually to cover their internal imbalances to $ 2 trillion, increasing the debt bar. The Fed will no longer give them, since the previous waves of expansion of liquidity during the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic disrupted the thread from inflation.

Instead of a quantitative expansion policy (QE), the Fed declares a quantitative compression policy (QT), when liquidity will be reduced through the sale of the Fedreser bonds that belong to it (treasury and mortgage). That is, the Fed will compete with the US Ministry of Finance in the Tregeis market, not help him. Both Fed and the Ministry of Finance will need to sell bonds (earlier the Ministry of Finance sold and the Fed bought, and everyone was satisfied).

Banks will not be actively invested - they are overloaded with their old portfolios, which, as a result of the fall of the prices of trees, brought billions of losses. Now bonds are actively buying the population, but this resource has its limit. In addition, the interest of "physicists" in trees will instantly extinguished for the reduction of basic rates. These are now the Americans are interesting to state paper with 5%profitability.

The most ideal traise is to attract investments in trees in other countries, as it was before, when China, Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation were total in total $ 2 trillion. But both China and Saudi Arabia are dropping US bonds from their portfolios, more precisely, they actively did it on the eve of the growth of the Fed's base rate.

So, for the United States, the key task is, first and foremost, to suppress the revolution of the global south in the embryo, forming a chain of new alliances, first of all, in the Middle East. The United States does not need war for Israel, but peace for itself and Israel. Find a new vative modus with China. Restart relationships with Latin America. Get cheap oil. To prevent a decrease in dollarization of world trade.

The current situation is absolutely not similar to the preparation of the United States for World War II. At that time, the US was selected from the crisis of the Great Depression of the 1930s, which was characterized by . . . deflation and unemployment. That is, military government orders to compensate for the shortage of aggregate demand perfectly formed the trend of growth during the war, ensuring both employment and exit from a deflationary trap.

Plus, the gold standard then equalized global imbalances between key world players. And what's going on now? There is no gold standard for a long time, the model of exchange of fiat, unsecured money for material resources is no longer satisfied with the global south: the main fiat reserve currencies in the west, and the main material resources - in the global south. Plus, the US is now maximal employment and high inflation, not unemployment and deflation.

If you analyze the US budget, there is not even a hint of preparation for some third or fourth World War. Everything is much more prose, more practical and more rational. Although everything is logical here - rationality has always been favorably distinguished by strong states from the weak, which, as a rule, act irrationally. For lovers of conspiracy and simple conclusions, the dollar is not threatened yet . . . The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.