The last bastion of the event in Africa: Will the Great War for Niger's Treasures begins

Most foreign countries condemned a military coup and Russia supported it. The Ecowas Economic Society (ECowas) has even threatened with a military invasion if the junta does not resume legitimate order in the state. Yes, the whole thing is in the geographical position of this state. Although most of the Niger's territory is a difficult desert, but this land is quite rich in natural resources (it ranks 7th in the world in uranium production).

It also creates a significant logistics potential of the country, primarily in the military sphere, as well as in transportation, in particular, the transportation of energy resources. Now this African country has become the last bastion of the "collective event" in the region. Niger is based on American (c. 1100 servicemen) and French (ca. 1500) military contingents. He is the largest recipient of US military assistance, receiving $ 500 million since 2012.

The main correspondent of The New York Times in Africa, Declan Volsh, notes the dependence of the state on external assistance, which is 40 % of Niger's budget ($ 2. 2 billion). Its natural resources are of strategic importance to the European continent, especially for France. Similarly, Uranus produced by French nuclear power supply at niger mines. Also, through the territory of this country, it is planned to lay a Panafrican gas pipeline, which should become another source of blue fuel for Europe.

Therefore, it is clear that the importance of Niger to the world, in particular Europe, much exceeds his real political status on the geopolitical map of the world. Unfortunately, for the population of this state, their country is currently the object of a large geopolitical game, not its full player. Niger is part of the former so-called "French Africa"-territories that in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. were French colonies.

The word "former" is the embodiment of ambitions of the local population. Residents of the former French colonies seek to get rid of their post-colonial status-the complex on which both powerful geopolitical players-the Russian Federation and the PRC, and various kinds of rebels-Jihadists who try to build a new political system on religious soil-play.

These radical supporters of Islam, among other things, say that there are borders between the states of Africa and often the states themselves in the form in which they are now functioning - it is the fruit of the colonial era and everything needs to be destroyed and a new world needs to be destroyed. Its structure of course should be established by the leaders of the jihadist groups.

In the fight against them, as well as by some radicalized local tribes, internationally recognized governments of these countries were usually engaged in the support of the troops of the former Metropolitanate, which did not contribute to the growth of their authority among the population. In the minds of the broad social strata, the French remained invaders in their territory, while at the same time infrastructure projects began to be engaged in the early XXI century.

Thus, the last decades in the heads of many Africans have built such a picture of the world: on the one hand, the former Metropolitanate, which continues to keep troops in these countries, suppresses rebel movements and grouping of local tribes, plans European values, and on the other hand - communist and authoritarian states ( Initially, the USSR and then the PRC and the Russian Federation), which assist weapons, food, build infrastructure and are not mixed in the internal affairs and lifestyle of these states.

It is clear that such thoughts did not arise without the help of specially conducted information campaigns both Moscow and Beijing. Following the struggle for the minds were business projects, and in the case of the Russian Federation and power support. Moscow acted not directly, but through various proxy groups, the largest and most famous of which was Wagner PVC. In the end, it has become one of the main players in the region south of Sahara (Sahal) in recent years.

Over the past four years, military coups have taken place in 6 countries from Guinea to Sudan. One by one, the country between the Atlantic and Indian oceans abandoned the services of Western (mostly French) military in favor of Wagner Merzes. This did not contribute to the improvement of security in these countries. Statistics indicate the opposite.

However, the authoritarian leaders of African countries were much more comfortable to work with Wagner PECs than the democratic governments of the Western powers. And all this was served under the sauce of anti -colonialism. Niger remained the last outpost of the Western powers. Especially after the coup in Mali in 2021 and the subsequent withdrawal of the French troops, which literally squeezed from there PVC "Wagner".

Instead, Niger had a democratic election where a pro -Western politician Mohammed Bazum won. At that time, Niger became the central base of military contingents in the United States and European countries from the logistics link. The bulk of the Franco-American contingent was transferred there, fighting with jihadists who operated in the desert, including in Niger.

American publicist Claudia Lorenzo Rubierra considers Niger over his neighbors in the US eyes and their allies - a democratically elected government in 2021. Close contact with which does not beat the reputation of Western leaders (as opposed to cooperation with authoritarian regimes, such as the Chud Government). Mohammed Bazum was carrying out reforms in the country for receiving generous funding from the event.

However, it did not stop the project of the oil pipeline, which was to be transported by Niger's oil to Benin. This lead is a project of Chinese companies. In 2022, Niger signed a memorandum of building a gas pipeline in the Algerian port on the Mediterranean coast. From there, African gas had to be transported to European consumers. That is, Niger President was economicly opened to cooperate with different sides, but obviously he would not cooperate with Wagner PVC or jihadist groups.

Clouds thickened around the last democracy in the region. In most countries, authoritarian regimes are in power. Some of them are simply used by Wagner PVC as mercenaries, and some of them have brought this PVC to the hand, such as in Mali and Burkina Faso, the countries that supported the military coup. If a few years ago Niger was an important logistics link in the Franco-American security system, now he has become a gap in a system built by Wagner.

Against this background, a military coup is taking place in the country against the pro -Western president. The French Minister of Defense suggested that a personal conflict between the President and the leader of his Guard could have been the reason for the coup - there was rumored that the head of state wanted to remove General Chiani, who has been managing the Presidential Regiment since 2011.

The researcher of the African Center for Strategic Studies, Daniel Eisenga, states that initially the coup had not supported the civilian population and other military formations except the Presidential Guard itself. However, then the loyalty of the army changed for the benefit of the Puts, and civil protests were brutally dispersed. Various US services also made statements about the lack of visible connection between the coup and the Russian Federation.

He calls for the senior lawyer of the Center for Strategic and International Studies Cameron Hudson. He believes that you need to wait for some specific actions and statements from the rebels themselves. Until a military junta has not taken any radical steps in the financial or military spheres. Foreign contingents remain in the country.

The French newspaper Le Monde Morgan Le Kam and Natalie Giber noted that although junta had denied the French contingent agreement, no applications for the withdrawal of troops were made. Niger has now introduced strict economic restrictions on the US, European countries and ECowas, but this does not affect the strategic projects of this country. Also, European has already reassured consumers with the statement that Uranium stocks would be enough for three years.

The head of the IPSE analytical center Emmanuel Dupoy believes that there are no obvious threats to France's economic interests. He even expressed the opinion that Niger's army would continue to defend the convoy that deliver Uranus from the country. Obviously, the West has not yet made the final decision on how to treat the junta. Obviously, in this way, the Putshists give a chance to move away from categorical positions, a field for a possible compromise is created.

In fact, the immediate causes of the coup are not so significant. Whatever the arguments are guided by General Chiani, he is in such difficult circumstances that he has virtually no space for maneuver. The geopolitical situation around Niger does not imply the opportunity to "lavish" between the parties. Now, each of the world policy entities will define their own policy on Niger's junta on the principle of "if not for us, against us.

" Moreover, she dropped the legal president who was respected and supported in the West. Therefore, there is no other choice with the Kremlin (even if the coup was really made because of personal motives) in the junta leader. Yes, he has already released the previously arrested supporters of the M62 movement, which is related to the Government of Mali and consistently acts as a mouthpiece of the Russian Federation in the country.

It was they who brought Russian tricolor to stocks aimed at supporting the coup. Therefore, Russian flags were drawn among the supporters of the coup. The junta has already been supported by clearly pro-Russian Mali and Burkina Faso. And on August 2, Mali was visited by her representative to discuss the possible introduction of the Wagner contingent to Niger.

Before that, on July 31, these states stated that any military interference in Niger's affairs they will regard them as a declaration of war as well. However, this contingent can not be significant, given that there are only a thousand Wagnerists in the smallest. Currently, all stakeholders hold various kinds and levels open and hidden negotiations in order to resolve the situation in their favor. On August 6, an ultimatum raised by the junta ecowas.

It is tough enough in its form-the junta must dissolve and return power to the legitimate government, headed by the President of Mohhahmed Basum, otherwise there will be an invasion of the armies of the Member States of the Organization. After a few days of strengthening of sanctions (Nigeria Zerma has disconnected Niger from electricity. Imports from this country are 70 % of consumption) on August 10 again gathered for an extraordinary summit. It decided to prepare the invasion.

This was stated by Ecowas President Omar Aliu Tray. To do this, a special military contingent must be formed, the basis of which is similar to Nigeria's armed forces. The UN Secretary General Antonio Gtouresh was also sharply spoke, which essentially repeated the Ecowas ultimatum-Mohammed Bazum must be liberated from custody and returned to power.

Instead, Hunta states that he will protect himself from the external invasion by all available methods, without even burning even the murder of the dropped president. On Monday, the military demonstially brought the new government, and on Tuesday the non -profit organization Egalitarian Mission for Africa (EMA) sued the ECowas, demanding that the invasion that will violate "fundamental human rights".

The neighborhoods of the state-Mali and Burkina Faso have already spoken before and have no intention to repeat their position twice. While the involvement of the military contingent of this African organization is the most likely solution to the problem, because the operation of the US or especially the French military threatens significant image losses associated with playing the colonial past card.

In the long run, it would even be profitable for the Russian Federation and China, because the loss of Niger itself with its subsequent destabilization (in the case of occupation by US or French troops), if not profitable, then at least not harmful to Moscow and Beijing, but it will become a significant argument For these countries in the future struggle for the minds and hearts of Africans.

In addition to the possible numerous victims, the argument against the invasion is the reluctance of individual countries to take the hardships related to the operation. It is obvious that all her hardships will fall on the shoulders of Nigeria (which borders with Niger) and Ghana, which has one of the most capable armies in all Africa.

The invasion will also lead to the final exit from the organization of Mali and Burkina Faso, which will hold another watershed between the "Western" democratic and "pro-Russian (Chinese)" Africa. The option of collaboration with junta looks less likely. After all, despite the peace "here and now", it carries significant risks in a more distant perspective, since encouraging coups contributes to their spread. This is what happens in Africa for the last three years.